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Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi on self-driving’s future, changing business model, job displacement Podcast Episode Description
(0:00) Introducing Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi
(0:59) Uber’s self-driving business: partnerships, market size, LiDAR vs computer vision, safety, distribution
(8:14) How self-driving impacts Uber’s business model over time
(13:30) Other forms of transportation Uber could provide
(16:09) $20B stock buyback plan vs. investing in R&D and acquisitions, future of food
(21:03) Dara’s pitch to Elon for bringing Tesla Robotaxis into Uber’s network
(22:31) How Uber thinks about driver job displacement from self-driving
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Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi on self-driving’s future, changing business model, job displacement Podcast Episode Top Keywords
Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi on self-driving’s future, changing business model, job displacement Podcast Episode Summary
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Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi on self-driving’s future, changing business model, job displacement Podcast Episode Transcript (Unedited)
Speaker: 0
00:01
The driving force behind one of America’s most influential companies. Record high today for Uber, 100% up last year. Waymo and Uber have announced a partnership. When you have a CEO that’s done what Arya has done, you set the bar higher and higher.
Speaker: 1
00:15
The The impact we have on society is significant. We hope to keep building on that impact going forward, and I’m quite optimistic about what the future is gonna bring.
Speaker: 0
00:24
Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Uber CEO, Dara Khazarsahi. Ai we
Speaker: 2
00:40
go. Good to
Speaker: 0
00:41
see you. Alright. Dara, I wasn’t sure if you were aware, but I was an early investor in Uber.
Speaker: 1
00:49
Ai heard you say it once or twice.
Speaker: 0
00:51
I’m curious how my investment’s doing.
Speaker: 1
00:54
I don’t know. Okay. Based on today.
Speaker: 0
00:56
Today’s looking pretty good. Sai, autonomy is the discussion. I think everybody wants to have in the ai. How many partners does Uber have in autonomy today?
Speaker: 1
01:10
So we have over 20 partners across both mobility and the delivery business. I’d say mobility now is in the field as we speak. Obviously, we’ve got a partnership with Waymo, who is, I think the best of the best in Atlanta and Austin, but there are a number of other players that we are partnered with, a number of Chinese players.
Speaker: 1
01:33
Autonomy in China is, hitting the big time, and a lot of these companies that sana expand outside of China we’re partnering with. And then, in The US, even in in the second half of this year, we will have a couple of partnerships kind of hit the road in Texas, and then in Europe and the rest of the world.
Speaker: 1
01:52
So you will see, we’ve announced a bunch of partnerships. We’re doing a ton of work with these partners. You’ll see these cars hit the road with safety drivers eventually, and the safety drivers will come out this year and then especially going to next year. We’re sana have significant number of cars on the road.
Speaker: 0
02:06
How many people in China have level four, no safety ai today? And what’s your assessment of those companies and their safety record? You know, it’s a different arya, obviously.
Speaker: 1
02:19
So there are, Baidu, Ai, Pony arya all on the road today. No safety driver. We are partners with all of them. Their capabilities are, you know, ai. We are partners with all of them. Their capabilities are amazing. You can imagine driving in China in these big cities is quite a complex, undertaking.
Speaker: 1
02:36
They take safety just as seriously as, the Western companies do. So Ai think their safety record is excellent. Ultimately, we think autonomous can be both superhuman in terms of safety and can save millions of lives over the course of time on the bryden, And over a period of time, as the cost of especially the hardware stack comes down, we think that it can bring the cost of mobility down and make mobility on demand available to many, many more people than it is now.
Speaker: 1
03:08
Sai it’s sana be a very big ai of market expander for us.
Speaker: 2
03:12
Sai that was the debate, Dara, that maybe kind of exploded a little bit on X between you and Elon where you guys I mean very respectfully, just debating the pros and the cons. Maybe just set it up for the folks in the audience the difference between Elon’s approach and the Waymo approach.
Speaker: 2
03:27
And maybe the the relative pros and cons as you see it.
Speaker: 1
03:30
Yeah. I mean, I think they’re the ones building the cars. Yeah. So I’m, to some extent, a very, very, very interested bystander. But but the way that that I put it is, Elon’s approach, depends on excellent software Right. To do a bunch of the heavy lifting. And that there are some, you know, early on whenever you’re building product, there meh be some cheat codes that you undertake.
Speaker: 1
03:57
So for example, you could call it, cheat codes or, you know, good engineering. Some of the things you see in early systems is one is, camera, radar, lidar. So multiple
Speaker: 2
04:10
Sensors.
Speaker: 1
04:11
Sensors, redundancy on the sensor stack to make sure that your perception algos are seeing the world as it really is. Elon is doing camera only. Tougher on the software, cheaper for the hardware. Okay? Second, I would say big difference is meh of the players use HD maps. And what HD maps do is, is essentially, you map out an area so that it’s much easier for the software to determine what are permanent aspects of a certain view.
Speaker: 1
04:42
You know, the, the lines on the road, traffic lights, etcetera. Because of the HD maps, it’s very very easy for that piece of software to determine what’s permanent and then what’s impermanent, vehicles, people, etcetera. So it makes the job of the software much easier to figure out what’s going on and then and then determine what to do.
Speaker: 1
05:05
Elon’s approach doesn’t depend on HD maps. And again, it makes the job of solver harder. And then the other, I would say, significant factor is the compute. So when you look at the compute and many of the other players that compute in terms of flops and memory etcetera, in the back of the car, car is pretty expensive, pretty extensive.
Speaker: 1
05:28
And I think Tesla’s approach is with a much tighter compute stack.
Speaker: 2
05:36
Do you see a world where you try to pour your distribution into all those solutions assuming that everybody’s amenable to working with you and it meets your threshold for what you’re looking for? Yeah. I think that Safety or cost or?
Speaker: 1
05:48
Exactly. I’d say safety comes number one. So we have a certain safety case that we sana make sure that our partners adhere to or exceed.
Speaker: 2
05:56
And it’s sorry. Just about is that an eval or is that ai is that certain rates that they have to publish to you? Or how do they demonstrate to you?
Speaker: 1
06:03
It’s it’s the technical approach and the eval together. And listen, it is a ai. Right? Because different people take different approaches to safety. We sana make sure that if showing up on the Uber platform, it is as safe as it can be on our different definition of safety is multiple ai tyler safer than a human being, which is achievable.
Speaker: 1
06:22
Waymo showing that it’s achievable. Many of the Chinese players are showing that that it’s achievable as well. Sai, if it reaches our safety criteria and the economics are attractive and the economics as the cost of hardware comes down, you know, ai was $2,030,000 bucks a pop, like, five, six years ago.
Speaker: 1
06:43
Now solid state lidar is 300 to $500 a pop. So the cost of hardware is coming way down. It is going to need to continue to come down, because these cars are very expensive. Then we’ll do business with them. We we sana be the platform and and we want to essentially help the entire AV ecosystem ai.
Speaker: 1
07:03
And we think there’s enough economics, for the network player to have a great business and, the software providers and the vehicle owners to have a great business. And then obviously, there’s fleet operations in terms of housing the cars, recharging the cars. You know, all of the, kind of in the world, work that’s necessary as well.
Speaker: 1
07:26
When
Speaker: 2
07:26
you You’re gonna get to a tipping point, I’m going to assume, in driver miles, let’s sai. Where one of the most interesting things that Ai thought of is, could you tell a city how it should actually be designed for optimal traffic?
Speaker: 1
07:44
Sai we work, Ai wouldn’t say for optimal traffic. I think theoretically it’s possible, but, you know Or even stop lines
Speaker: 2
07:52
or something.
Speaker: 1
07:52
Yeah. Yeah. Google could there are lots of other players, who can help with that. But we’re certainly helping cities in terms of, where you should put charging infrastructure, for example. Parking, drop offs, etcetera, to help traffic flows. I think we can be a partner for cities, and we do have a small operation where essentially we offer data for free for cities to embark on city planning, so to speak.
Speaker: 2
08:17
Do they take it?
Speaker: 1
08:18
Some do. Some do. Some of the more sophisticated cities take it, but I wouldn’t call it a big part of our business. So, Dara,
Speaker: 3
08:25
I want to ask you about the, the business model impact of, basically, robo taxis or self driving. In the old world, Uber’s network effect was a marketplace effect where you connected drivers and riders. And if you had the most geographic density in an area, then you could promise riders faster pickups, and the drivers got higher utilization.
Speaker: 3
08:49
And that was a very powerful network effect. But we’re moving into a new world where anyone who has a fleet of self driving cars, in theory, could just make them available to the public and start competing. How do you see that impacting your bryden? And and do you have to go from being an asset light business to now owning all these these cars and deploying them?
Speaker: 3
09:11
And is that a good thing or a bad thing for your business?
Speaker: 1
09:13
Sai I think ai the same economics ai. Right? Which is if we have, that fleet owner, is not gonna have as many vehicles available or in a certain market than, let’s say, a network, like ours. And we will have a hybrid network. We’re gonna have humans and autonomous cars together, and that’s gonna continue for a while.
Speaker: 1
09:33
You know, the the autonomous machines are gonna aren’t gonna replace all humans at least for the fizzy for the future. So for us, if you’re a part of our network, you are going to get more requests than the player who’s doing a standalone because we already have the demand.
Speaker: 1
09:50
The request is gonna come from much closer. So instead of, you know, speak up who’s fifteen minutes away for a ten minute ride, you’re gonna get a pick up that’s three minutes away for a ten minute ride. So the utilization in terms of the revenue generating miles as a percentage of total miles driven is much much higher on on our network.
Speaker: 1
10:11
So the player that, you know, if you have fleet player a who’s going direct standalone, fleet player b who’s working with us, Fleet player b will have much more business. We’ll have many more miles that are shah are creating revenue as a percentage of the total miles driven.
Speaker: 1
10:29
And as a result, each of their cars are gonna get much more revenue per car per day, than than the fleet player who isn’t working with us. Sai, I mean, that ultimately is, you know, even if you if you think about Uber Eats. Right? There’s this drama which is, hey, do you go direct only or do you work with a marketplace?
Speaker: 1
10:45
And the fact is every major food player, McDonald’s has a direct channel. But they have a box and they want that box to create as much revenue as possible. So they have a direct channel and they work through our marketplace, DoorDash marketplace, other marketplaces as well, because that’s how you drive utilization.
Speaker: 1
11:05
And so I think that most of these players, there are going to be some players like a Waymo, like a Tesla, who can build their direct channel. But we think if they want to drive maximum economics out of these really expensive cars for now, they’re sana to also want to work with us.
Speaker: 1
11:22
Do you
Speaker: 3
11:22
think you will need to buy and deploy your own fleets? Or can you rely purely on
Speaker: 1
11:28
third party fleet owners? So I think that, there’s going to ultimately, if you look at the end state, I think all of these cars are gonna be financeable. So if you look, again, in the hotel business Ai used to be in the travel business, a Hilton or ram Marriott who’s the brand doesn’t own any of their hotels.
Speaker: 1
11:45
Those hotels are owned by financial only players. And I think ten years down the line, you know, there are these things called REITs real estate investment trucks. You’re sana have fleets. You’re gonna have financial owners that own big fleets of cars that are on our network, maybe on other networks.
Speaker: 1
12:02
The new Hertz,
Speaker: 2
12:03
the new enterprise kind of event.
Speaker: 1
12:04
I’d say it’s gonna be more financial player. So it’s not, you know, Hertz sana ai are operators.
Speaker: 2
12:09
Okay.
Speaker: 1
12:10
These these are gonna be like
Speaker: 0
12:11
pure And racks
Speaker: 1
12:11
of saloni. Of the world. And they own fleets and they’re just trying to monetize those fleets as much as possible. That’s the end state. Between now and the end state, we will take balance sheet risk because we can sign up. We know exactly how much revenue a car can produce in said market because that because cars are already producing revenue. So we can sign up for the revenue.
Speaker: 1
12:33
We will prove out the business model. We’ll use our business we’ll use our balance sheet to prove that prove out the business model. And then vatsal some point, the whole thing is sana get financialized ai we’ll be able to take it off balance sheet.
Speaker: 3
12:45
Does is Waymo willing to work with you?
Speaker: 1
12:47
Ai mean, actually Waymo Waymo is working with us now in Austin Okay. So in Austin and Atlanta, if you’re using Uber, you can be picked up, with a Waymo. Our customers love it.
Speaker: 2
13:00
Is it is it the driverless aspect of it that they love? Or Or
Speaker: 1
13:04
You know, they’re sai The Ai Minister. I think one is, they’re new cars. They’re really nice cars.
Speaker: 2
13:09
Yeah.
Speaker: 1
13:10
It’s ai of freaking cool. Yeah. And you do have privacy in that car as well. So, I think the combination of it works out really well. We see customers who experience the product. They rate it really ai highly. They use it again. And so it’s just it’s just an absolute ai product.
Speaker: 2
13:30
So we’ve we’ve mostly only spoken about the x y axis. And we have a couple of our friends who’ve built businesses that are, you know, trying to launch these eVTOL businesses. Yeah. Some of our other friends who are experimenting with small drone delivery. Tell us where all of those things play in your infrastructure going forward.
Speaker: 1
13:48
So we’re we’re absolutely believer in, eVTOL. We’re an investor in Joby, and we are going to work with them as those vehicles become available. We know that there are some other vehicles. But I think that the ai of z, axis, if you if you sana to call that, makes a ton of sense.
Speaker: 1
14:06
Listen, in cities of the world, essentially, they have built in the third meh, because there’s only so much that you can expand, you know, in in the x and y dimension. So businesses have expanded in the third meh. Residences have expanded in the third dimension. But our transportation, infrastructure has only expanded in two dimensions. Right.
Speaker: 1
14:28
So it’s no wonder that traffic just keeps getting worse and worse and worse, because that third dimension isn’t available. So we are absolutely believers in, both eVTOLs, and drone delivery. Now, I think on the delivery ai, there arya two areas that we’re working on. One is ai robots.
Speaker: 1
14:48
It’s easier tech to develop.
Speaker: 2
14:51
Explain what that is, a sidewalk robot.
Speaker: 1
14:53
So sidewalk robots, there’s some of them in LA and Santa Monica. They are autonomous vehicles that, drive on the sidewalks. They drive pretty slowly. They’re very very safe. They look ai cute, And they’re appropriate for deliveries that are a mile or less, long. So deliveries in a tight space.
Speaker: 1
15:17
And so there’s a certain addressable market for us in deliveries, where those sidewalk robots work, and we’re working with Serv, Cardigan, and a number of other players in The US, in Japan, in a number of other markets. Then on the other side is drone delivery. And drone delivery is a proper for markets where, you know, they’re more spread out, suburban, no high rises, etcetera.
Speaker: 1
15:38
Those two together, we think can cover 50 plus percent of our delivery, TAM, so to speak. But then there’s another 50% that we’re sana have to work on in terms of the first and the last mile. You know, coming out of the restaurant and then getting the the food into your apartment as well.
Speaker: 1
15:57
Humans take care of their own first and last ai, but you need something to take care of the first and last mile of the food. That’s where the challenge is gonna come in, and we’re working with with a number of players to see how we can get that first and last mile for food.
Speaker: 0
16:10
I sana talk to
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16:10
you for
Speaker: 0
16:11
a minute, if I may, about the balance sheet. One of the great, you know, sort of early, insights we had at Uber was around profitability. And the press and the narrative was, oh, Uber could never be profitable. And I would talk to TK about it and and and William and all the Josh in New York, and they’re like, yeah, we could flip it at any moment in time to $2 more a ride.
Speaker: 0
16:35
We would lose no ai. It would be wildly profitable. And in fact, under your stewardship, Uber has become a money printing machine to the point at which you announced a $20,000,000,000 stock buyback. Yes. And I saw it and I said, wow, this is just incredible.
Speaker: 0
16:48
However
Speaker: 1
16:49
Did you tweet about it by chance?
Speaker: 0
16:51
I might have. I might. Once in a while I’ll retweet you and give you a little ai. But I did have this thought that, and I had Chris from neuro on the program and you have this great partnership to put 20,000 on the road.
Speaker: 2
17:06
Wrong podcast. Ai go on.
Speaker: 0
17:08
Yeah. The other podcast. And so I’m wondering how you think about the war chest, the money printing machine and deployment of that asset. How do you decide $20,000,000,000 stock buyback versus putting 300,000,000 into neuro or we had Travis on the podcast and he said, he’s had many opportunities to look at things like Saloni, which has been in the press and, it would be pretty great to have the original founder maybe, I don’t know, you’ve got a couple of billion laying around and maybe help him have Saloni come to the West.
Speaker: 0
17:40
So how do you think about deploying that capital in order to, you know, continue to grow from where we at? 1% of rides globally are ride sharing approximately?
Speaker: 1
17:50
A little more, but it’s between 12%. It’s a very
Speaker: 0
17:52
low number. It’s clear it’s gonna go to 20 with autonomy. Definitely. And sai if we all believe that and that’s obvious, is that the best use of the capital? How do you make that decision?
Speaker: 1
18:02
So Ai I think the good news for us is it’s not either either or. We can walk and chew gum at the same time. In the past twelve months, we’ve had over 8 and a half billion of cash flow. The business is growing, you know, top line 18%, bottom line 35%. So that cash flow is going to grow by a lot over the next three to five years.
Speaker: 1
18:23
And we announced the 20,000,000,000 buyback because in looking forward to areas in which we could invest aggressively, for example, in AV, because we should, because it’s an enormous opportunity whether it’s vehicles or fleets, etcetera. We are very comfortable that we’ve got enough, capital to be super aggressive there appropriately, and at the same ai, buy back our stock.
Speaker: 1
18:47
There’s a great company we know of. Management team can get a little better, but they’re okay. And we think it’s a great deal. So it’s not it’s not an either or. It’s it’s sai and for us, and we’re lucky to be in that position at this point.
Speaker: 2
18:59
You, have a very big business in Uber Eats. Yes. It competes with folks like DoorDash.
Speaker: 0
19:05
Mhmm.
Speaker: 2
19:05
When Travis was on the pod a few weeks ago, maybe a month ago Yeah. He he talked about sort of the robotization of food and all of that. Can you just talk to us about your vision of where all of that stuff goes to and
Speaker: 1
19:18
So we’re we actually work with Travis, and his cloud kitchens business. He’s also built a restaurant tech business in in Otter as well. And I do think that you are, you know, any food business that is not deep in delivery is going to lose share period for the foreseeable future.
Speaker: 1
19:39
So every single player, food player, grocery player, even now retail player, has to get into delivery and has to get into on demand delivery. Otherwise, they’re kind of missing the most attractive segment of of consumers out there. And Ai think as the cost of labor is going up, all of these businesses are building, are investing increasingly in roboticization.
Speaker: 1
20:04
It’s not something that we are getting into, but as more food, healthy food, delicious food becomes more available at lower prices, then our delivery business ai of will benefit along
Speaker: 2
20:17
with that part. I’m hearing consistently from ram, and you can just tell me if this this is wrong, that you are becoming increasingly an asset ai, highly liquid distribution network. Ai, you have this incredible network effect. You have these hundreds of millions, maybe approaching a billion users, and you can just pour them into all of these things.
Speaker: 1
20:35
We we are essentially we bring demand to the assets that are driving the movement of people and things and food and grocery, and these are all asset heavy businesses. So the next incremental piece of demand that comes from our network is incredibly valuable for them. And we can do so staying largely capital ai, at the same time to the extent that I can use my capital to invest in the AV ecosystem or fleets etcetera, we can also do that.
Speaker: 0
21:04
There’s one company that wants to go go on its own. A friend of ours runs it. I think that you probably have had some conversations, obviously publicly you have, what’s the best pitch to Elon to put a 100,000 robotaxis into the Uber fleet? While still doing his own because his app is doing spectacularly well and the and the pilots are doing well, so he’ll obviously figure it out.
Speaker: 0
21:28
But what’s your best pitch to him to joining the Uber network?
Speaker: 1
21:31
I think, listen. The the pitch is simple which is if you’re looking to maximize the revenue of those robo taxis
Speaker: 2
21:37
Today?
Speaker: 1
21:38
Today. We are your ticket to the maximization of that revenue. To the extent that you’re looking to have these fleets owned by people, you know, kind of the digital shepherds, which is an amazing vision that that Elon has. To the extent that those, owners are not able to monetize their assets on the Uber network.
Speaker: 1
21:58
They will under monetize and if there’s a competitor who is offering those vehicles to be on the Uber network, the monetization of those vehicles are sana be superior And those digital shepherds are gonna go elsewhere. So I think that is the pitch and again, Elon is, you know, he ai of believes in full stack.
Speaker: 0
22:16
Yes.
Speaker: 1
22:17
And he’s proven it. And and I think that this market is large enough for there to be multiple winners.
Speaker: 2
22:22
Clearly.
Speaker: 1
22:22
But in the end, to the extent that, you know, we would love to partner with them, but at this point they’re looking to go it alone and I think the market is large enough to carry a number of winners in this position.
Speaker: 0
22:33
A tough question about, humans. I was talking to Will Barnes who ram, originally in Los Angeles and then half of the country for for Travis and, Will Barnes had a pretty amazing insight which was in the early days we had humans protesting humans competing for, you know, the taxi drivers versus the rideshare ai.
Speaker: 0
22:54
In China, in Wuhan in fact, there’s been a lot of civil unrest and they’re talking about limiting the number of licenses for self driving cars because of the disruption that would happen if young men who have those jobs are not able to have a job. And we saw the Waymos get called to their death here in Los Angeles and that was a pretty clear message as well.
Speaker: 0
23:15
How do you think about that group of people losing their jobs, these drivers who built the Uber network, who built Lyft, who built DoorDash and China’s overwhelming concern about this, because these are robots taking human jobs and there’s an, you know, there’s a lot of discussion about this sai I think maybe in the tech industry we don’t talk about it head on.
Speaker: 1
23:35
I think, listen, this is it’s a big issue for AI in general and, job displacement. You see it with younger graduates as well. I think for us, at least for the next five years, the number of robot cars coming on to the platform are not going to be displacing people, because the platform is just growing so quickly that we can very easily take that take that demand.
Speaker: 1
23:59
And and there is a natural turnover of our driver base. So in a market like in Austin, or other markets in which we’re launching, autonomous, we will turn down the driver recruitment, machine. So the robots can come in and the drivers who are currently driving in the platform can make as much money.
Speaker: 1
24:20
So Austin drivers now are making as much or more money than they were before we introduced Waymo. So Ai think for the next five to seven years, we’re we’re gonna have more human drivers and delivery people just because we’re going so quickly. But I think, you know, ten to fifteen years from now, this is sana be a real issue. And Jason, I don’t have a neat answer for it.
Speaker: 1
24:41
Now, we’re finding, like, other kinds of work. We’ve got, drivers and couriers, you know, labeling AI labels and looking, you know, we have a whole Uber AI solutions business. So we’re essentially one way to look at Uber is, we arya platform for work and transportation is the first kind of work.
Speaker: 1
25:02
And now, we’re expanding into other kinds of on demand work as well to, be able to adjust the kind of work available to people who, sana earn our platform. But I think long term, this is a big, big societal question that we’re sana have to struggle with and lots of others are gonna struggle with too.
Speaker: 2
25:20
Absolutely. Alright. Thank you very much.
Speaker: 1
25:23
Thank you. Really appreciate it.
Speaker: 2
25:25
Thank you.
Speaker: 0
25:30
Crushed it. Thank you, my brother.