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Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding Podcast Episode Description
(0:00) Introducing Elon Musk, and reflecting on his DOGE experience
(2:47) Optimus: Progress and potential, the “hands problem”
(12:20) Tesla: AI5 chips, impact on FSD
(16:50) SpaceX: Vision for Starlink-enabled smartphones, $17B spectrum deal, Starship update
(26:16) xAI: Next-gen Grok models, Colossus 2, scaling laws, “Grokipedia”
(31:29) Evolving alongside AI, implosion of the West, the religion vacuum
(37:36) Understanding the universe, going to the Moon, what happens on Mars?
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Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding Podcast Episode Top Keywords
Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding Podcast Episode Summary
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Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding Podcast Episode Transcript (Unedited)
Speaker: 0
00:00
I believe Optimus is gonna be the greatest product ever created by humanity.
Speaker: 1
00:05
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Elon Musk and his x Ai startup have built the largest and most powerful artificial intelligence training supercomputer in the world. As far as I know, there’s only one person in the world who could do that, you know?
Speaker: 0
00:18
This is an arms race of epic proportions.
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00:21
He’s a big thinker.
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00:23
You guys went on Fox the other day with the Doge team. Ai saw Elon’s face nodding while they were speaking with a grin ear to ear. Why? He was proud.
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00:31
He is proud. Ai has acquired X in an all stock transaction.
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00:35
Tesla’s first robo taxis are officially on the road.
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00:39
The company’s board proposed a new compensation package for the CEO that could pay him just about a trillion dollars in stock.
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00:45
He gets nothing if he doesn’t hit the numbers.
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00:49
SpaceX will buy wireless spectrum licenses from EchoStar for its Starlink satellite network for about $17,000,000,000. Three, two, one. There’s a buoy.
Speaker: 1
01:15
How do you have time? This I I I never understand you.
Speaker: 4
01:19
Yeah. Well, I do work a lot.
Speaker: 0
01:23
Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Saloni Musk. Alright. Alright. Ai. Where arya you?
Speaker: 4
01:33
Palo Alto.
Speaker: 0
01:34
You’re in Palo Alto. Yeah. And, not Washington, Houston. I’m at
Speaker: 4
01:38
I’m at Tesla Global Engineering Headquarters in Palo Alto.
Speaker: 0
01:42
Yeah. So no more Washington DC. You’re back at work. You’re focused. Yeah?
Speaker: 4
01:48
Yeah. I haven’t been to DC since May.
Speaker: 0
01:50
Okay.
Speaker: 4
01:52
Yeah. That was a that was a hell of a side quest.
Speaker: 0
01:55
That was a good side. Any lessons from your time in Washington DC?
Speaker: 4
02:03
The government is basically unfixable.
Speaker: 0
02:05
Saloni, only only
Speaker: 4
02:13
only Ai poured David’s noble efforts in this, it it’s good to it’s it’s good to have talented people in the administration.
Speaker: 5
02:19
But at the end of the day,
Speaker: 4
02:22
if you look at our national debt, which is, insanely high, the interest payments exceed the, defense department I guess sorry. War department, budget. And, they keep rising. So if AI and robots don’t solve our national debt, we’re we’re toast.
Speaker: 0
02:47
Which is a great segue. Optimus is, I think sana be the greatest
Speaker: 5
02:56
History.
Speaker: 0
02:56
Product in the history of humanity. What’s the progress like and how much of your how many of your cycles are going specifically to Optimus? What’s the timeline? I think you’re on version three, maybe four. Tell us everything.
Speaker: 4
03:14
Well, yeah. No. Everything would take a long time.
Speaker: 0
03:19
We’ve got time.
Speaker: 4
03:23
We’re we’re finalizing the design of Optimus version three. And, that that really is gonna be a very remarkable robot. It will have the essentially the manual dexterity of a human, so meaning a very complex hand. It the an AI mind that can navigate and comprehend reality, and we made in very high volume. Those are the three things that ai missing.
Speaker: 4
03:58
Like if you see any other robotics company, they’re missing those three things. Those are the three really hard things. And, I I I speak actually at this point, it it might be more of my mental cycles than anything anything else, any other single thing on optimists. That’s that’s that’s solving for, real world AI, all of the electromechanical issues of Optimus, the the supply chain and production challenges of it.
Speaker: 4
04:38
Because we have there is no supply chain that exists for humanoid robots. So it has to be we have to recreate it from scratch, and which requires doing a lot of vertical integration. None of the actuators in Optimus are available from an existing supply chain. So but I I think it is accurate to say that if successful, Optimus will be the biggest product ever.
Speaker: 0
05:06
And the cost of it at scale, $20.30, $40,000 a robot, what what do you think the first wave of them will cost? And, yeah, when will we be able to buy one to work on the ranch?
Speaker: 4
05:24
I think that the the marginal cost of production, once you hit a million units per year, is probably around the $20,000 range. It it it sort of depends on how much you spend on the AI chip in the in the robot, and you need to achieve a lot of efficiencies in the actuators. There are 26 actuators per arya. Like, 26 electric ai, motors, gearboxes, and power electronics. So so but but the the the the the Ai chip will be pretty expensive.
Speaker: 4
06:08
Like, that that might be, like, $5.05 or $6,000 of the of the bill of materials, maybe more. And but but so I but I think at volume, at a million units a year, the the production cost is probably in the order of $20,000, maybe 25, something like that. And ai will be as a function of demand.
Speaker: 2
06:32
Elon, can you maybe explain to everybody why the hand is so important to get right and why, you know, the actuator design is so unique and you know, why it’s so difficult, why nobody makes it and why you have to start there almost to build the rest of the the robot properly?
Speaker: 4
06:51
Well, it turns out the human hands are incredibly they’ve evolved to this to be this incredibly sophisticated machine. Like the your hand is ai actually a remarkable thing. It’s look look closely at your hands and and think of all the things you can do with your hands, which is a lot.
Speaker: 3
07:12
I ai can think
Speaker: 0
07:13
of many things. Yeah. I was just thinking about something.
Speaker: 4
07:16
You know, your your hands are very versatile instrument.
Speaker: 0
07:20
Yeah. You can give them a high five.
Speaker: 4
07:23
Very versatile. You know, you you you can swing a baseball bat, you can, thread needles. You you put thread in a needle, you can play the piano with ai, you know, you could disassemble or assemble a car. The hands are incredibly versatile instruments, and, most of the muscles of of of the hand are arya actually in the forearm.
Speaker: 4
07:51
So your hand is kinda like a like a like a like a puppet. Like it’s mostly a puppet. The muscle the muscles are coming from the forearm and they’re pulling the tendons, which arya, you know, also human tendon ai or or human human tendon evolution is incredibly good. So you’ve you’ve got this web of tendons.
Speaker: 4
08:12
You’ve you’ve you’ve got, I think I think the human hand is something ai, depending on how you counted 27 or 28 degrees of freedom meh, you know, in in the hand. It’s, it’s amazing. So in order to create a robot that can, be a generalized humanoid, you must solve the hands problem. Yeah.
Speaker: 4
08:38
We
Speaker: 0
08:38
had we had Ari and It’s
Speaker: 4
08:39
got hands, knees hands.
Speaker: 2
08:42
And so is it like when you were first building Tesla where the supply chain doesn’t exist and now you have to go out and find folks to work with and you know build all this vertical integration, get support. Is it is it literally like it’s just nowhere to be found and you’re gonna have to build all of this stuff up?
Speaker: 4
08:58
Yes. We we could not actually buy the actuators for any amount of money. They simply didn’t exist. Even though there are meh, twenty thousand electric motors out there of various sizes and shapes, we’ve had to design, every electric motor gearbox, and of and the controlling electronics from scratch, basically from physics first principles.
Speaker: 0
09:20
The good news is you’ve got a lot of experience with factories over the last couple of decades. So Yeah. How challenging is this versus Cybertruck model y
Speaker: 2
09:31
Model x.
Speaker: 0
09:32
Gigafactory, you know, the the yeah. The Faberge egg known as the model x. Yeah.
Speaker: 4
09:37
Right. It’s hotter than any any of those things.
Speaker: 0
09:44
Okay.
Speaker: 4
09:45
Yeah.
Speaker: 0
09:46
Much hotter? Significantly. Yeah. Starship?
Speaker: 4
09:49
Meh.
Speaker: 3
09:49
Well, it’s more
Speaker: 4
09:51
I’m just no. Not Starship’s hotter. Okay. Harder.
Speaker: 0
09:56
So somewhere between a model x and a Starship.
Speaker: 5
09:58
Yeah. Is it is the what’s harder? The hardware or the software?
Speaker: 4
10:06
Right now, we’re struggling with the the final design of the hardware. Like I said, it’s really primarily the hand. Not to just just dismiss the rest of the robot, the rest of it is also, important. But but the hands are the hands inclusive of the forearm are a majority of the engineering difficulty of the entire robot.
Speaker: 5
10:26
And then tyler let’s assume you get past the hardware challenges. How much do you sort of get for free, based on all the progress that’s happening with LLMs? Will, you know, will consumers just be able to interact with this, talk to the robot, ask it to do things it’ll understand and sort of
Speaker: 4
10:42
Oh, yeah. Yeah. No problem.
Speaker: 0
10:44
You’re spending a lot of time with Annie, I noticed online.
Speaker: 4
10:48
Not not that long. Maybe I went a little over the top from Moaning Grock, imagine. But,
Speaker: 0
10:54
Well, but in all seriousness, those characters and these robots that seems to be, you know, like maybe they
Speaker: 4
11:03
You could get the embodiments of Annie as well.
Speaker: 3
11:05
Yeah. Why why the human form factor, Elon? You could make something that’s maybe better than a human ram maybe simpler than a human to do specific tasks and maybe better than a human to do more things than a human can do. How do you decide to make it just like a human?
Speaker: 4
11:21
Well, if you wanted to do all the things that a human can do, it turns out you need a humanoid robot. So if you wanted to do a subset, that’s much easier. But, it turns out humans evolved to this the shape and capabilities that we we we have, it it for for good reasons. It actually is there there is, ai, there’s value to having ai, you know, four fingers and the thumb. And even the pinky actually is is quite useful.
Speaker: 4
11:58
Toes are meh more question mark but but the fingers
Speaker: 5
12:06
Well, also humans humans have designed the world as well. So we designed it for us. For us. Exactly. If we could make a humanoid robot, it’ll be immediately backwards compatible with what we’ve built the world for.
Speaker: 4
12:16
Exactly.
Speaker: 2
12:16
Elon, there’s another, there’s another part of the robot. So there’s the LLMs, there’s the actuation in the hands, but also there’s the the silicon that runs it and there was, you know, Dojo, I think you posted on X Ai and AI6 and it just seemed like you were incredibly excited about the direction in which the silicon layer was also going.
Speaker: 2
12:43
Can you tell us about that and what that is and what what what arya we building here? What is being built? Is it a complement to everything that exists in the world? Is it a potential long term competitor? What is it?
Speaker: 4
12:59
Yeah. So vatsal Tesla, we basically had two different chip ram. One Dojo and one, Dojo on the training side and then what we call, you know, AI four. It’s just our inference chip. That that AI four is currently shipping in all vehicles, and we’re finalize finalizing the design of AI five, which will be an immense jump from AI four.
Speaker: 4
13:28
Ai some metrics, the improvement in AI five will be 40 times better than AI four.
Speaker: 2
13:35
Wow.
Speaker: 4
13:36
So 40%, 40 times. And and, this is because we work so closely at a very fine grade level on the AI software and the AI hardware. So we know exactly where the limiting factors arya. And and, and so effectively the AI hardware and software teams are co designing the chip.
Speaker: 2
13:59
So a 40 x improvement in the silicon, I think then as it as everybody here in the audience experiences it, is that just an almost like an order of magnitude increase in the quality of FSD and the safety that you experience as a Tesla driver and then the quality of the robot? Like where does it all manifest when you, when you, you know, bring it up and actually get it into production?
Speaker: 4
14:23
Yeah. To be precise, the 40 x is on if you sai, like, compared to the worst limitation on AI four, which is running the softmax operation
Speaker: 0
14:33
Yeah.
Speaker: 4
14:34
We currently have to run softmax in around 40 steps in emulation mode, whereas that’ll be just be done in a few steps, natively in AI five. AI five trip will also be, easily handle mixed precision models. So you don’t have it’ll dynamically handle mixed there’s a bunch of sort of technical stuff that Ai five will do a lot better.
Speaker: 4
14:58
In terms of of nominal sort of, raw compute, it’s it’s eight times more compute, about nine times more memory, roughly five times more memory bandwidth. So, but because we’re addressing some core limitations in AI four, you multiply that by that that eight x compute improvement by another five x improvement because of of, optimization at a at a at a very fine grain silicon level of things that are currently suboptimal in AI four.
Speaker: 4
15:31
That’s where you get the 40 x improvement.
Speaker: 0
15:33
You had, oh, keep going.
Speaker: 4
15:35
Keep going. So now that said, I I I am confident that the current, chips, AI AI four chips that are in the cars will, achieve self driving safety that is at least two to three times that of of human and and maybe even 10 x. And the software that, will be released for that is is coming out over the next, few months.
Speaker: 4
16:00
So version 14 will be the biggest, upgrade in Tesla software since version 12. We are increasing the, parameter count by an order of magnitude. The there’s there’s there’s a lot of, reinforcement learning that’s been used. There’s, we we there there there’s a like, you can think of AI sort of as a way of compressing reality, and and some of those compression steps, we, were too lossy, and and we addressed the lossiness in the compression steps.
Speaker: 4
16:39
So these arya all software updates that’ll that’ll go out. So just over their updates. Your car is going to feel like it is sentient by the end of the year.
Speaker: 0
16:49
Yeah. It feels that way already, to be honest. I saw in the trades that you spent about $17,000,000,000 on some spectrum and that, sai some couch change, to enable your satellites and the Starlink network to connect directly with phones. What will that look like in a year or two? Are we going to drop our Verizon account and just expand our Starlink account?
Speaker: 0
17:18
We’re kinda hoping because Verizon kinda sucks.
Speaker: 5
17:24
How how meh of you want a Starlink phone?
Speaker: 0
17:27
Who wants a Starlink phone? Cool. Is it is it technically possible? I know
Speaker: 3
17:33
you can’t see see it, but it’s everyone.
Speaker: 4
17:35
Yeah. It’s ai. Cool. So this is a kind of a long term thing. It it it will allow SpaceX to deliver high bandwidth connectivity directly from the satellites to the phones. But, there are hardware changes that need to happen in the phone. So the since these frequencies are not supported in current phones, the the chipset has to be modified to add these frequencies, and that probably is a two year time frame.
Speaker: 4
18:11
So the phones that, are able to use the speak that was acquired probably start shipping in around two years. And, and and then we also need to build the satellites that are gonna communicate on those frequencies. So in parallel, we’re building the satellites and working with the handset makers to add these frequencies to the phones.
Speaker: 4
18:32
And then the the satellites and the phones will then handshake very well to achieve high bandwidth connectivity. But the the net effect is that you should be able to watch, videos, anywhere on your phone.
Speaker: 0
18:45
Wow. And it’s gonna be crazy.
Speaker: 5
18:48
And what and do these do these frequencies, would they work indoors ai buildings, you know, like like your phone currently does? Okay. No.
Speaker: 2
18:56
And so will you be able to have basically, like
Speaker: 4
18:58
If you if you’re if you’re in a building with a with a, like, a a thick metal roof, then no. But, No.
Speaker: 5
19:03
The the same types of
Speaker: 4
19:05
of Yeah. Yeah. Normal normal homes. Yes. Yeah.
Speaker: 2
19:07
Yes. Elon, is your vision for this that instead of, you know, having an AT and T account or and then roaming when you’re in The UK or you’re in India. It’s just we could have one direct deal with Starlink, it works all over the world eventually, not today, but at some point. Is that the end goal?
Speaker: 2
19:23
That basically we don’t need a regional carrier, we have a global carrier and that would be you.
Speaker: 4
19:30
That that would be one of the options. To be clear, we’re we’re not gonna put the other carriers out of business. They’re still gonna be around because they they own a lot of spectrum. So, there’s a but but, yes, you’ll you should be able to have a Starlink, like you have like you have an AT and T or T Mobile or Verizon or whatever.
Speaker: 4
19:47
You should be you you could have a, you know, account with Starlink that, works with your, you know, Starlink antenna at home, for your Ai Fi as well as on your phone. And, yeah, it would be a comprehensive solution for high bandwidth at home and for high bandwidth direct to cell.
Speaker: 3
20:08
Could you buy some carriers to have more spectrum? Maybe you could buy Verizon?
Speaker: 4
20:14
Not out of the question. I suppose if if that may happen.
Speaker: 0
20:17
Let’s talk about, let’s talk about Starship. You just had a really what appeared to be a phenomenal launch. How close is it to, you know, being predictable and ready to go in a commercial setting?
Speaker: 4
20:36
I I I think we will recover the ship next year. We’ve got one more launch of the, Starlink version two, stack. There’s only one one, booster and ship left. That’s in the version two design. And then thereafter, it’s it’s version three, which is a gigantic upgrade because that’s got Raptor three, and pretty much everything changes on the rocket with version three.
Speaker: 4
21:06
So version three, you know, might have some initial teething pains, because it’s such a radical ai, but, it’s it’s capable of over a 100 tons to orbit fully reusable. And I think it’s I think I think, unless we have unless we have some very major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate, full reusability next year, catching both the booster and the ship, and being able to deliver over a 100 tons to a useful orbit.
Speaker: 0
21:42
What what does the best rocket in the world do now in terms of tonnage to space?
Speaker: 4
21:50
Well, in terms of, sort of commercial rockets, there’s there’s Falcon Heavy Meh. Which we’ll do, in with with ai booster reuse, will do about 40 tons.
Speaker: 0
22:07
Sai this is five times bigger. Yeah.
Speaker: 4
22:10
Ai, two and a half times bigger in but but Starship would be full reuse full reusability.
Speaker: 0
22:16
Got it. Okay.
Speaker: 4
22:17
So everything comes back.
Speaker: 3
22:18
Elon, after after the explosion that happened, with the the the failed launch, there was a lot of What was? Sorry?
Speaker: 4
22:28
Which which
Speaker: 2
22:29
failed launch?
Speaker: 3
22:30
Oh, the more recent one. The more recent one with the Starship app. The big boom. Yeah. And the big boom on the base. And and and of there’s a lot of proclamations that there’s gonna be environmental and FAA and all these other sorts. The recovery back to the launchpad again was incredibly fast. How did you get back so fast?
Speaker: 3
22:50
Not just technically and work ai, but just like regulatory clearance wise because they said there were gonna be all these questions and reviews and so on. How did how did you guys manage that?
Speaker: 4
23:01
Well, there were a lot of questions and reviews. We got through them all, and credit to the SpaceX team. They worked incredibly hard, and they got the next super booster tested and on the pad and and saloni. And, yeah, huge credit to the SpaceX team. Ai proud of them for doing doing such a job a a great job recovering.
Speaker: 4
23:22
I mean, it’s it’s creating a fully reusable orbital rocket is one of the hottest engineering problems ever. Certainly, you know, a candidate for most difficult engineering project ever, You know, it’s on the podium at least. So it’s a that that’s been the goal of SpaceX from the beginning, from 02/2002, and here we are 23 later.
Speaker: 4
23:49
So it’s it’s a long journey, and, with with a super talent like, by far, the I think the most talented group of rocket engineers that’s ever been assembled. And, and we’re finally next year. I think we’ll be able to achieve full reusability.
Speaker: 2
24:10
Elon, what are the big technical blockers that you’re focused on there between now and that full reusability? Are there some showstoppers where you’re just kind of literally just obsessing over ai to figure out still or is it more about getting through a ai of a laundry list of your learnings and just integrating it into the next launch?
Speaker: 4
24:33
Well, that the for for full reusability of the ship, there’s still a lot of work that remains on the heat shield. So no one’s ever made a fully reusable orbital heat shield. Like, the shuttle heat shield, had to go through nine months of repair after every flight. Right. So no no one has ever made a fully reusable orbital heat shield.
Speaker: 2
24:58
And is that a material science problem or is that an engineering problem or both?
Speaker: 4
25:03
Yeah. Ai meh, it’s a material science engineering problem. So it’s but we really arya, looking at the fundamental physics here. Again, physics first principles and ai to figure out how do we make something that, is, it, you know, it can withstand the heat, is very light, doesn’t transmit the heat to the the primary shah
Speaker: 0
25:31
Yeah.
Speaker: 4
25:31
Primary structure. And
Speaker: 2
25:37
But whose integrity is ai?
Speaker: 4
25:39
Shah on. They don’t crack. Yeah. And then as you ascend, if you hit some rain, you know, the ai don’t dissolve in rain, there’s there’s a lot of different issues. And and then you really need to know that these tiles are working. You you can’t, you know, go through this laborious inspection.
Speaker: 4
26:00
So it really needs to be we’re you know, these these tens of thousands of tiles all work and don’t need to be refurbished or checked one by one. That was the case with the shuttle.
Speaker: 2
26:15
Can we maybe switch now? I think Sai mean who who else were you talking about Tesla then you go to SpaceX. Yeah. Now I’d I’d like to ask you some questions about Grok and XAI. Ai sana to just give us an update? I think you you kind of talked about where the next gen model is and you said something incredible.
Speaker: 2
26:34
I still don’t think people really understand it which is, you know, there’s gonna be a next training run where you speak, you know, not to start from the, you know, common web and common crawl where you expected an enormous amount of synthetic data. Just tell us about how, the evolution of Grok is going and this innovation and why it’s so important.
Speaker: 4
26:59
Yeah. So we’re we’re running a lot of using a lot of of inference compute and, and reasoning to look at all of the source data, which is really the corpus of human knowledge. And then, thinking about each piece of information and then adding adding what’s missing, and correcting correcting mistakes and removing falsehoods from this from that training data.
Speaker: 4
27:27
So it’s it’s it’s like, if you take the Wikipedia as an example, but this really applies to to books, PDFs, the websites, every form of information. The the the Grok is using heavy amounts of inference compute. Let’s say to look at, as an example, a Wikipedia page and say, what is true, partially true, or false, or missing, in this page?
Speaker: 4
27:58
Now rewrite the page to ink to correct the remove the falsehoods, correct the half truths, and add the missing context.
Speaker: 5
28:12
Well, Elon, by the way, could you just publish that? Could we create, like, a Grokipedia? I mean, that Yeah.
Speaker: 0
28:17
Especially for our bio pages, which are a disaster.
Speaker: 5
28:21
Wikipedia is so biased and it’s it’s a constant war, you know, if something gets corrected ai minutes later there’ll be an army of people trying to I meh, it’s become hyper partisan and there’s Ai. Activists all over it. So if you do fix, for example, Wikipedia as a source of truth, it’d be great to publish that just so the world has it.
Speaker: 4
28:44
Alright. I’ll talk talk to you about that. So so talk to the team about that, ai, Grok Video or whatever. This here’s the Grok Video version.
Speaker: 0
28:52
It’d be interesting. Yeah.
Speaker: 4
28:53
And then just have it out there for
Speaker: 5
28:56
Where in terms of, people here like it. In terms of training Grok five, you’re you’re scaling up your speak cluster in Colossus and in Memphis. Can Colossus too now.
Speaker: 4
29:09
Yeah. But there’s a saloni one.
Speaker: 5
29:11
Yeah. Could you give us an update on that? And then also, as part of that, where are we in the scaling laws? If you scale a bigger cluster, do you get a more powerful AI model? Is there a point of diminishing returns or ai how much more compute if you throw twice as much compute at it, do you get a 10% better model?
Speaker: 5
29:31
Do you get a 100 better model? Like, is it log linear? What what I guess, how much more juice is there left in scaling hardware do you think?
Speaker: 4
29:42
I think I think there’s a natural logarithmic function associated with the amount of compute. So, then, like, say for argument’s sake, like, 10 x more compute will double the intelligence. Maybe that’s that that might be a rough rule of thumb. But, you know, that still means that, you know, you go from 100 IQ to 200 IQ. It’s still pretty pretty big deal.
Speaker: 4
30:04
Sai Ai and and I think I think we’ll see intelligence continue to scale all the way up to where, you know, most of the power of the sun is harnessed for compute and then ultimately most of the power of the galaxy. You know, sort of two, three scale, compute. So I guess once you think about artificial intelligence, not as sort of this, you know, a destination that you reach, but really, as part of the overall escalation of intelligence, that that that we are aware of.
Speaker: 4
30:44
You know, human intelligence is also scaled as you’ve I have as the population has increased, and we’ve been able to store more and more information, human intelligence sai scaled. Now human because of population declines and low growth rate, human intelligence is is somewhat plateauing, and will actually decline.
Speaker: 4
31:05
And ai guess is that, I I I think that we might have AI smarter than any single human at anything as soon as next year. Wow. And and then and then probably within five like say 2030, probably AI is smarter than the sum of all humans.
Speaker: 3
31:29
Do you think do you think humans are on the decline because the AI is evolving? Do you think there’s this evolution of the ecosystem on earth that’s underway that we don’t really understand the structure of what’s going on but
Speaker: 4
31:46
Meh yeah. Maybe we implicitly know that it’s coming. Yeah. I I I mean, I I hope the birth rates turn around. I’m a I’m a big proponent of, increased birth rate, obviously.
Speaker: 0
32:09
Well, are you doing anything about it or no?
Speaker: 4
32:12
Yeah. I’m trying to set a good example.
Speaker: 0
32:15
You know, we had a big conversation at this conference we didn’t expect which is suicidal empathy, the West, this, declining birth rate. I noticed you’ve been pretty active about it.
Speaker: 3
32:29
And open borders.
Speaker: 0
32:30
And open borders.
Speaker: 3
32:31
Or is ai meh the invaders in. Could
Speaker: 0
32:33
all three
Speaker: 3
32:33
of those be the same thing?
Speaker: 5
32:35
It seems like there’s a number of symptoms of the West being suicidal. The most obvious one being the birth rate is not a replacement level. So obviously if that continues indefinitely, then the West will literally not reproduce enough to replace itself. But there’s other things too.
Speaker: 5
32:50
There’s the fact that the borders were totally opened to the point where Western culture the social fabric started to come apart and, you see this especially in Europe where they’re, you know, the indigenous cultures of The UK or France or Germany are starting to, potentially be taken over by by cultures of people who arya bought in and aren’t assimilating.
Speaker: 5
33:11
You have crime where, you know, we have this case on social media right now. This young woman, Irina who’s just Yeah. Yeah. Killed in a senseless way on a subway, which is horrific enough in and of vatsal. But then, in addition to that, the elite media just for whatever reason just refused to cover it ai it didn’t exist. Yeah.
Speaker: 5
33:30
So you have this issue of crime that’s not being addressed or
Speaker: 0
33:34
even acknowledged. And no acknowledgement of this ai it’s almost like we’re trying to deny the reality of the spiral and this Yeah.
Speaker: 5
33:44
So you have the you have all these data points, that seem to suggest that, the West, is suicidal or doesn’t you know, doesn’t seem to want to defend itself or propagate itself. Ai, I think everyone in this room thinks that, life is awesome. Right? I meh, it’s pretty great. And and I think Worth living. Yeah.
Speaker: 5
34:04
And when when Alex Karp was here earlier today defending the West, they got some of the loudest applause at the conference. So, I guess we probably don’t really understand what’s going on. We don’t really
Speaker: 0
34:15
Yeah. What’s your take, Elon? Because you you know
Speaker: 3
34:17
What’s your take on the suicide of the West?
Speaker: 0
34:19
Yeah. What’s what’s going on?
Speaker: 4
34:21
I’m very worried about it. Yeah. I’m very worried about it. You know, I I think there’s, there’s let’s just say that the actions of the West are indistinguishable from suicide. Ai sai but it’s, ai look, at least in Meh, there’s there’s there’s generally a sense of optimism, but when’s the last time you you talked to someone from Europe who lives in Europe who’s optimistic?
Speaker: 0
34:49
Not for a while. No. Decades.
Speaker: 4
34:52
Like, even one? It’s rare. Sai I I think unless people have a sense of optimism and purpose about the future, they so suicide might be just what happens. Like like like, having a child is an act of optimism about the future. So, if you’re not optimistic, just put yeah. So so I think we need to maybe give people a sense of optimism and excitement about the future and I and I believe that the future will be better than the past, and they’ll be more interested in having kids.
Speaker: 3
35:33
Did religion did religion play a role in the past, Elon, to Yeah. Kind of placate and make folks feel that way when they were Ai
Speaker: 4
35:40
think so. Nature abhors a vacuum. And if you take away religion, then I think you actually you you you get something in this place which is actually worse than what was there before. I mean, it’s, like, destructive, basically. You get you get, like, the white work mind virus filling filling the hole that religion used to have.
Speaker: 4
36:04
Taking the place of of of religion, you you get these dystopian de facto religions that, that are that are very very self destructive. So I I think perhaps some some sort of revival of religion or at least what we need is is some coherent philosophy that people can get excited about.
Speaker: 4
36:32
You know, I mean, for me, it’s a philosophy of curiosity. I’m curious about the nature of the universe, and I wanna go out there, and I sana humanity to be out there exploring the stars, maybe meeting alien civilizations. Maybe in some cases, we we’ve sai the ruins of a long dead alien civilization, but they were they were very strong for ten million years.
Speaker: 4
36:55
You know, the kind of stuff that you see in Star Trek in the in the non dystopian sai fi book or or movie or show. And so I’m I’m just I have I have a philosophy of curiosity ai of, like, I just wanna know what’s going on. And and and in order to know what’s going on, we we must have, an an increase in this in the scope and scale of consciousness.
Speaker: 4
37:16
We must we must expand as a, consciousness. We must grow we must grow humanity, and we must extend humanity in order to comprehend the and, to to understand the universe. Sai even what what questions should we should ask about the answer that is the universe? You know, Douglas Adams’ book, the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Saloni, is actually a a deep book on philosophy disguised as humor.
Speaker: 4
37:45
And what the point he was trying to make in that book was that, the questions are the really the the hard part. The the answer is universe. Like, the answer is everything you see around you. But but but what are the questions that we don’t know to ask?
Speaker: 0
38:00
Yeah.
Speaker: 4
38:01
Now now some of the questions, I guess, I’d we’d I do know. I’d like to know, is the standard model of physics correct about the origins of the universe? Are we actually 13,800,000,000 years old? How does the universe end? Does it end in heat death or in some other way? You ai, are we
Speaker: 3
38:16
in a black hole.
Speaker: 4
38:18
We might be. Ai.
Speaker: 2
38:21
Elon, can you talk about because the whole the
Speaker: 4
38:23
whole sort of simulation question. Are we a simulation? Maybe.
Speaker: 0
38:26
Where does the, where do you think we find the answer first? In AI or in the stars? Because you’re pursuing both, obviously.
Speaker: 4
38:38
Yeah. I I don’t know if if, ai, I hope I hope more people can get behind a philosophy of curiosity Yeah. Because I think it’s very exciting Yeah. And and and and inherently optimistic. You ai, because there’s there’s this amazing sense of wonder about the nature of the universe.
Speaker: 4
39:06
And when you just when you uncover some secrets of the universe, that’s amazing. You and you’re ai, a whole world of understanding has opened up. I mean, we we we used to not even know where all the continents were. You know, it used to be ai just the map would be there be dragons.
Speaker: 4
39:24
And like, all we know is that when they sailed in that direction, they didn’t come back.
Speaker: 0
39:30
I mean, the moon base
Speaker: 4
39:32
That’s vatsal that’s all they knew.
Speaker: 0
39:34
I kinda feel like the moon base or just going to the moon for real this time would be a big step in the right direction. You still have the moon, planned? What’s the status of that? Is is that still on the agenda?
Speaker: 4
39:46
Yeah. Sai think it I think having I think we sana try to reach new heights as a civilization. Yeah. So I think it’s it’s fine to go to the moon, but but we we should go to the moon in order to establish a lunar base, like a a lunar research base. Yeah. Ai mean, there are parts of the moon that are perhaps older than parts of of Earth, and we we we might understand more about the nature of the universe if we had a science base on the moon.
Speaker: 4
40:12
Yeah. That would be very cool. And then we we obviously wanna go beyond the moon, to Arya. And, will they self sustaining city on Mars? The I I I do think that, that that there is a fork in the road of human destiny where, if we can establish a self sustaining city on Mars, the with the the key test being if the resupply ships from Earth stop coming for any reason, does Mars continue to to prosper bryden it die out?
Speaker: 4
40:43
At the point at which Mars is able to, prosper and grow on its own, the probable lifespan of consciousness is dramatically greater because we are no longer dependent on everything going right on Earth. You know, there’s there’s always some possibility of self annihilation on Earth with the World War three or or a super virus or, or or a meteor, like, extinct but, you know, that destroyed the dinosaurs.
Speaker: 4
41:09
We know from the fossil record that there have been many mass mass extinction events. So, the question that that Ai sort of I’m always wondering about is, will civilization can will the civilizational arc continue to ascend such that we can make Mars self sustaining before the civil civilizational arc descends?
Speaker: 4
41:29
Because the window of opportunity to make life multi planetary exists now for the first time in the four and a half billion year history of Earth.
Speaker: 2
41:40
Yeah. Elon, let’s assume that we get there and you’re there. You know, you’d be the elder meh, you’d have the moral authority of Mars. How do you run Mars?
Speaker: 4
41:57
Ai this point that I I think I I wanna just emphasize again that that’s it’s more important than the form of governance on Mars or who’s there in the early days. What really matters is that Mars, is self sustaining, that we are truly a multi planet species and such such that we’ve achieved planetary redundancy.
Speaker: 4
42:22
So that that if if something and ai, obviously, we should do everything possible to make sure life on Earth is great, but there’s always some risk that of an annihilation event on Earth. Yeah. Like I said, self annihilation or some natural disaster. And, and so the the probable ai of consciousness increases dramatically as soon as, as soon as we are multi ai species with the key test being, can Mars survive if the resupply ships stop coming?
Speaker: 4
42:52
So so getting like, the first missions to Mars are not that important. The what matters is can you get sufficient tonnage tonnage to Mars such that Mars can, prosper on its own? And that means it has to have all of the ingredients of civilization. It it it’s not just that you need to build, for example, a chip factory on Mars or shah fab on Mars, but you you need the ability to build apps.
Speaker: 2
43:16
Do you do you have a sense of the time scale? Like, let’s assume Starship is at a state starting in, you know, 2026 and there’s gonna be a bunch of testing obviously, there’s gonna be a bunch of early testing, we only have certain launch windows. So there’s a bunch of time constraints. Is that, is this a fifty year thing in your mind? Is it a hundred and fifty year thing?
Speaker: 2
43:34
Is it something that is for our generation or is it our children’s generation? Where do you see that point if it’s optimally possible? You know, things go and break our way.
Speaker: 4
43:47
I think it can be done in in thirty years.
Speaker: 2
43:51
Wow.
Speaker: 4
43:51
So if if ai there’s an exponential increase in the in the tonnage to Mars with each successive Mars transfer windows, which is every two years. So every two years, the the planets align, and you can you can transfer to Mars. So, I think in roughly 15, but maybe as few as 10, but ai to 15 ish, Mars transfer windows if you’re seeing exponential increases in the tonnage to Mars with each Mars transfer window, then it should be possible to make Mars self sustaining, in in about, call it roughly, twenty five years.
Speaker: 0
44:33
Amazing.
Speaker: 2
44:33
That’s incredible.
Speaker: 0
44:35
Ai. Ladies and gentlemen, Elon Musk, we’ll see you when we’re back in town. We miss you.
Speaker: 4
44:41
Alright.
Speaker: 0
44:41
We’ll see you in person next time. Yeah.
Speaker: 4
44:44
Thank
Speaker: 0
44:44
you, brother. Elon. Alright. Alright.