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AI Bubble Pops, Zuck Freezes Hiring, Newsom’s 2028 Surge, Russia/Ukraine Endgame Podcast Episode Description
(0:00) Bestie intros
(1:59) What’s new with the All-In Summit
(9:02) AI Mania hits the brakes: sign of a bubble or a healthy correction?
(30:49) Meta’s AI hiring freeze: are the AI talent wars slowing down?
(39:09) Gavin Newsom is the early favorite to be the 2028 Democratic nominee
(54:03) Russia/Ukraine: Trump’s two summits, what endgame to expect?
Join us at the All-In Summit:
https://allin.com/summit
Summit scholarship application:
http://bit.ly/4kyZqFJ
Get The Besties All-In Tequila:
https://tequila.allin.com
Follow the besties:
https://x.com/chamath
https://x.com/Jason
https://x.com/DavidSacks
https://x.com/friedberg
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https://x.com/theallinpod
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@theallinpod
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Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://x.com/autismcapital/status/1958566758719398351
https://fortune.com/2025/08/18/mit-report-95-percent-generative-ai-pilots-at-companies-failing-cfo
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/18/openai-sam-altman-warns-ai-market-is-in-a-bubble.html
https://www.theverge.com/command-line-newsletter/759897/sam-altman-chatgpt-openai-social-media-google-chrome-interview
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/technology/mark-zuckerberg-meta-ai.html
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/meta-ai-hiring-freeze-fda6b3c4
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/19/meta-tried-to-buy-safe-superintelligence-hired-ceo-daniel-gross.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/12/technology/meta-scale-ai.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/18/sam-altman-says-meta-tried-to-poach-openai-staff-with-100-million-bonuses-mark-zuckerberg.html
https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000198-c46f-da96-abff-d66f4c1e0000
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250820615513/en/Statement-from-Marcus-Lemonis-Executive-Chairman-of-Bed-Bath-Beyond
https://news.gallup.com/poll/693203/ukrainian-support-war-effort-collapses.aspx
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AI Bubble Pops, Zuck Freezes Hiring, Newsom’s 2028 Surge, Russia/Ukraine Endgame Podcast Episode Top Keywords
AI Bubble Pops, Zuck Freezes Hiring, Newsom’s 2028 Surge, Russia/Ukraine Endgame Podcast Episode Summary
Based on the provided context, the phrase “has joined the group” refers to someone becoming a member of a group, band, club, or team. Throughout the conversation, there are multiple references to joining various groups, inviting members, and welcoming new people. Specific examples include:
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AI Bubble Pops, Zuck Freezes Hiring, Newsom’s 2028 Surge, Russia/Ukraine Endgame Podcast Episode Transcript (Unedited)
Speaker: 0
00:00
In confidence, Sachs told me he’s a little broken up about the empty nest ai of thing. And by empty nest, I mean his bulldog Moose is coming to live on the ranch.
Speaker: 1
00:08
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Has the Moose landed?
Speaker: 0
00:10
The Moose is landing next week. We’re giving him a three month trial. If he’s on his best behavior, he stays.
Speaker: 1
00:15
He’s gonna be great. He’s so well trained.
Speaker: 2
00:17
What’s going on?
Speaker: 1
00:18
Moose is our our bulldog. Yeah? And Moose is loose. He needs the space. He needs the ranch. He’s a very athletic bulldog. This dog is not a couch potato. He’s like Ai. Very active, and he just needs the space to run around.
Speaker: 0
00:32
Why don’t
Speaker: 2
00:33
you just buy a ranch and give him
Speaker: 0
00:34
his own ranch? Why buy a ranch when the bestie has one already?
Speaker: 1
00:38
Ram. A bestie who loves bulldogs. But, no, he’s a he’s a spectacular specimen of a bulldog.
Speaker: 0
00:44
Oh, he is a stunning bulldog.
Speaker: 1
00:45
Yeah. He’s a beautiful dog.
Speaker: 3
00:47
Great bulldog. He’s a This
Speaker: 2
00:48
is a trial adoption?
Speaker: 0
00:49
A sal Trial adoption.
Speaker: 2
00:50
Calacanis adoption cycle? Oh my god. This is sad.
Speaker: 1
00:53
You know, these bulldogs resist training.
Speaker: 3
00:55
Like Jason.
Speaker: 1
00:56
Yeah. You know, like You know, like They are the
Speaker: 0
00:59
most stoic, loyal, like Jason. But stubborn individuals. They will
Speaker: 3
01:05
Overweight, stoic, not stubborn. Overweight? This is
Speaker: 0
01:09
a Shpelt dog. How dare you? How dare you? Moose is a specimen.
Speaker: 1
01:13
In terms of personality, this is founder arya fit. I mean, this is, like, owner meh fit.
Speaker: 0
01:18
Founder bulldog fit.
Speaker: 1
01:19
So what Moose would do is he would jump on the couch and just kinda lay there. So we’d ai Moose Snow go down. So we put him down. He jumps right back up. We would take him down. Jumps right back up.
Speaker: 0
01:30
Yeah.
Speaker: 1
01:30
I mean, he can go on all night doing this. So finally, you just give in and let him sit there.
Speaker: 2
01:36
It’s literally JKOW.
Speaker: 0
01:37
It’s literally. They are.
Speaker: 1
01:37
Now it’s his couch. Now it’s his couch.
Speaker: 0
01:39
It’s literally JKOW. Yeah. Let your winner ride. Rain man David Cyrus. And instead, we open sourced it to the fans, and they’ve just gone crazy with it. Love you, West Ai, everybody. Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. We got a banger episode for you today.
Speaker: 0
02:05
All the topics that you wanna hear about in the world. And with us, our amazing crew, our chairman dictator, Chamath Palihapitiya, enjoying the final moments of summer. How arya you doing there, brother?
Speaker: 3
02:19
Well, I come back in a couple of days.
Speaker: 0
02:24
You getting a little melancholy there, brother? You a little sad?
Speaker: 3
02:27
I mean, I think it should everybody should have a two to three week vacation in August. I think it should be mandatory around the world. I think the world should stop and we should all go on vacation.
Speaker: 0
02:41
Yeah. Well, you proved that to the audience by not showing up for the show for a couple of weeks. Yeah.
Speaker: 3
02:45
It’s the best time to go on vacation.
Speaker: 2
02:47
I agree.
Speaker: 0
02:47
I agree. I just literally got back from ram little
Speaker: 3
02:50
off through the July. Take two weeks off with your family. There’s nothing better.
Speaker: 0
02:55
I I just did a a little, visit down to Mexico City, which was absolutely the life of Rome is amazing. Have you been there before, Jamar?
Speaker: 3
03:03
No. But I’ve heard it’s incredible. I heard the food scene in Mexico City is bananas.
Speaker: 0
03:06
It was bananas, and That’s
Speaker: 3
03:08
what it’s like. Yeah.
Speaker: 0
03:09
The arya scene there is amazing. It’s kind of like if Spain and Williamsburg, Brooklyn had a baby, like, that would be Mexico City. It’s super hip, super fun, lots of young people, lots of energy. Hey. Speaking of, young people with lots of energy, hey. Freeburg’s back with us in his cell, working throughout August to get incredible things done, like our AI summit and the All In Summit.
Speaker: 0
03:31
Freeberg, you gave up your summer once again for the All In crew and for the audience. How do you feel? You resentful or you feel good about your decisions?
Speaker: 2
03:41
I live for the work, JCal.
Speaker: 0
03:42
You do. How’s O’Halo doing? It seems like you’re, doing a lot of work there. You got your head down. Ai give us a little update on the company.
Speaker: 2
03:49
I appreciate the ask. There’s a lot going on. We’re very busy. I actually had a really cool test tube here that we had a customer visit today. Ai go find it. The world’s first true potato seed, and we are ramping up production. Lot going on. It’s pretty exciting.
Speaker: 0
04:06
Yeah. Sounds sounds thrilling. Sachs, any, thoughts there on, potatoes and just how thrilling this, exercise has been?
Speaker: 1
04:14
What are you talking about?
Speaker: 0
04:15
We’re just talking about O’Halo. Freeberg shah a thrilling summer. He’s he’s got a new potato in a test tube that he’s working on just Wait. Did we
Speaker: 1
04:23
invest? Is that what’s going on with that?
Speaker: 2
04:26
Yeah. You’re a shareholder.
Speaker: 1
04:27
I’m in. Okay. Alright. Well, okay. I meh about this. In?
Speaker: 3
04:32
No. He did not
Speaker: 1
04:33
I know we wanted
Speaker: 3
04:34
to. Me an investment.
Speaker: 0
04:35
I didn’t I
Speaker: 3
04:36
didn’t I
Speaker: 0
04:36
didn’t get
Speaker: 1
04:36
any Do I wait. Is this the source subject?
Speaker: 3
04:39
No. Why ai No. No.
Speaker: 0
04:40
Ai the subject for me. When this thing becomes worth 10,000,000,000 and I didn’t get to slide in a little $2.50 ai, not even a slice on Freiburg.
Speaker: 2
04:49
Look, guys.
Speaker: 0
04:50
Sai slice for your friends.
Speaker: 1
04:51
They want they want value added investors, JCal. What’s your value add exactly?
Speaker: 0
04:56
Value add? How about I pull up my shell?
Speaker: 1
04:58
On this podcast.
Speaker: 0
05:00
Okay. Ai. Well, since I’m not on the cap table, good luck with your mutant fucking potatoes.
Speaker: 2
05:08
Misinformation.
Speaker: 0
05:10
Mutant potatoes. Oh, we’ll get through it, folks. We’ll get through it. Hey, Zacks. You and I did a little interview with a certain senator. Give us an overview.
Speaker: 1
05:19
Yeah. We did a great interview with senator Eric Schmidt from the state of Missouri, who previously was attorney general and wrote a book about his experience as attorney general. He brought the lawsuit Ai v Missouri, which exposed the Biden administration’s censorship apparatus that they ran through social media companies.
Speaker: 1
05:35
This was the government side of the the Twitter ai. And the discovery he brought when married with the Twitter files that Elon released really paint a picture of how the government was in bed with social networks to basically censor Americans’ free speech rights in favor of their point of view on COVID and many other issues.
Speaker: 1
05:54
So Great. It was really good conversation.
Speaker: 0
05:56
Yeah. It was ai, and, it’s everywhere where you can find all in. But we got this big event coming up. The summit is coming, folks. Here we go. For the fourth time in just a few weeks, September. I think, eighth and ninth are the main days. Man, this lineup is stacked. Alex Karp, Vlad from Robinhood, ai guy energy secretary, Chris Wright, and I are gonna have a great discussion part two. Wow.
Speaker: 0
06:19
Uber CEO hitting an all time high, Circle CEO. Just an incredible lineup here. And Freeberg, it looks like we’ve got some great partners. Yeah?
Speaker: 2
06:27
First of all, the event is gonna be very expensive to put on this year. We actually have, in addition to the great speakers, we have Diplo headlining one of the main parties. The Diplo? Yeah. Gary Richards and Dylan Francis. And so we have a huge set of blowout parties every night. It’s gonna be awesome.
Speaker: 2
06:47
To put all this on and to pay for the event, we wanna thank the sponsors. So Solana, big shout out. They were sai sponsor last year, and they’re stepping up as a big sponsor this year. Big shout
Speaker: 0
06:56
out to our friends at Solana. They’re amazing. We support everything we do. They’re doing over a 100,000,000 transactions a day. It’s unbelievable what they’re getting done over there. Great team, and they’re gonna do a full open bar for us, Sunday. Juice Bar Coffee, the works. Sai classy team over there.
Speaker: 0
07:11
And we don’t just have, like, these typical sponsorships of events. What we do is we ask, you know, our partners, hey. Make an activation. Make a place for the besties and for the fans to hang. And they’ve all created these amazing experiences and there’ll be matchas and espressos and craft beers and sushi and all kinds of great stuff.
Speaker: 0
07:31
And to our friends at OKX, they’re sana be coming back. They’re building it on stage. We got a macho bar coming. All these great things by our partners. Google Cloud’s back offering 350 k in credits to Google Cloud for startups, what mentions they are over there. Google’s crazy. Look at this, man.
Speaker: 0
07:47
They’re they’re putting out a mini campus at the summit and, yeah, 350 k in cloud credits if you come. Athletic Brewing’s back. They’re doing the scholarships again. We have a couple of scholarship slots left. Please don’t apply for the scholarships if you have means to buy a regular ticket.
Speaker: 0
08:02
But if you do need a scholarship, please do apply if you’re an up and comer. Allin.com/summit or allin.com/yada yada yada.
Speaker: 1
08:11
Did you guys see this?
Speaker: 0
08:12
What’s going on now?
Speaker: 1
08:13
Apparently, I was in the new South Park episode.
Speaker: 0
08:16
The whole thing was around the sycophancy of AI. But do you
Speaker: 1
08:20
Do I say anything in the shah, or is it just I’m just in the background?
Speaker: 0
08:25
No. They had a line of people giving tributaries to, the president, you know, based on the Apple gift that Tim Cook gave to our amazing president. It’s a funny episode. You know what I like about the administration? Ai, JD actually retweeted all this stuff and and, you know, had it’s good fun.
Speaker: 0
08:39
We we we get to mock our civil servants.
Speaker: 2
08:41
That’s
Speaker: 3
08:41
the vice president to you.
Speaker: 0
08:43
That’s that’s what I said. My guy, JD. What did I
Speaker: 3
08:45
say?
Speaker: 1
08:45
Suddenly on a first name basis.
Speaker: 0
08:47
My guy, JD. Hold on a second. Let me just say hi to JD here, and I’ll just get his feedback.
Speaker: 2
08:50
I’m gonna invite him to the
Speaker: 0
08:51
Discord portal. Hold on. Your biggest ai here, me and Chris Wright also talking directly now. I’m directly plugged in. Oh, yeah. It’s Chris Wright. I’m bringing him a special gift to the summit.
Speaker: 1
09:00
You’re gonna be you’re gonna love it.
Speaker: 0
09:01
Alright. We gotta talk about AI. AI AI mania hit a bit of a detour this week all over the, you know, three or four days. AI stocks were down across the board because of this MIT study that went viral as well as Sam Altman’s comments about a bubble and Zuck instituting a hiring freeze in AI after going on a complete blitzkrieg.
Speaker: 0
09:22
So let’s get into it. Hack one, Monday, Fortune dug up a generative AI study that MIT published last week or last month, I should say. In that study, MIT found that ninety five percent of Gen AI pilots are failing to make it to production because of employee resistance, poor quality output.
Speaker: 0
09:40
And the most interesting problem seems to be resource meh allocation. According to the study, 70% of Meh AI budgets are going towards things like building sales and marketing tools, which have poor ROI. The highest ROI was found in back office optimization, like automating tasks that cut back spends, you know, on various departments.
Speaker: 0
10:02
Basically, these pilots are at work in CHIMAP is what this study found. They evaluated 300 AI implementations and interviewed a 150 leaders across 52 companies. You’ve been grinding it out with your own software company now called eighty ninety. Does this align with what you’re seeing on the field, Jamal?
Speaker: 3
10:23
I think what I would tell you is that Ai think the first wave was just a lot of boards who read the words AI somewhere in an article and then went to a board meeting and turned to the CEO and said, what’s your AI strategy?
Speaker: 0
10:38
Mhmm.
Speaker: 3
10:38
And then the CEO turns around and sends that down into their org, and it eventually hits the CTO’s desk. And I think the first wave is mostly people just spending money because they had large existing budgets. And so they were like, let’s just go and try a bunch of different things.
Speaker: 3
10:53
And I think now we’re going through the sorting function of realizing that there’s a big difference between probabilistic software and deterministic software. That’s probably the biggest reason why you’re seeing so many failure modes in sales and marketing. It’s very hard to codify sales and marketing into a set of heuristics that never change.
Speaker: 3
11:11
But back office processes, why they’re so good and a great target for AI is ultimately we have so many people that have been hired to deal with edge cases. Right? I think that’s what people do in most companies is they’re in charge of a process and they’re dealing with edge cases.
Speaker: 3
11:27
And I think that you can get extremely high rates of accuracy if you implement AI correctly in back office tasks. I think the real question is, like, what happens to all of this revenue that has been generated? You’re seeing companies generating $50,100,000,000 dollars of ARR in a matter of months and then raising huge rounds.
Speaker: 3
11:48
I think what we haven’t seen is whether there’ll be any sort of either logo churn or dollar churn as new companies come in with even cheaper solutions. The foundational models move up the stack and just absorb capability or things just don’t work and they get abandoned. All of that churn happened in social.
Speaker: 3
12:09
I remember when I was in the middle of helping build Facebook, we went through that whole cycle. There was seven or 8,000 social companies. And within six years, there was five of us left. It happened in SaaS when I was investing in SaaS. There’s a couple of very early and important successes ai Yammer, which Sai started, which I was very lucky to be an investor of.
Speaker: 3
12:33
But then it took many years for the handful of winners to get really sorted out. And I suspect we’re about to go through that same cycle in AI. So I think that article basically paints a very accurate picture. There’s been a lot of trialing and experimentation. We now need to go through a sorting and a cleansing, and then we’ll rebuild from first principles around the Yeah.
Speaker: 0
12:52
Not surprising to our consultant. Not surprising to our consultant of SaaS, David Sachs, because the sales and marketing departments, they they’re very promiscuous when it comes to new tools, getting a great lead, closing a sai, you can directly connect it. So we always see them test stuff out. Doesn’t surprise me that we’d see sales and marketing go after this first.
Speaker: 0
13:13
But what do you think about the brittleness of this revenue, the churn, Sai? Are we sana see a lot of these companies rocket up to a 100 and come back down to 50? Is this something you’re seeing, or your your firm, which I don’t know your status at the firm, maybe you could tell us how how that’s working out in terms of your intelligence there, but what is Ram seeing on the field there?
Speaker: 1
13:34
I think we’re seeing a lot of interesting AI applications being developed, but it’s still very early days. And I think that over the past week or so, there was a correction in sentiment towards AI, but I think it was a healthy correction. I don’t think this was the beginning of a bus cycle or something like that.
Speaker: 1
13:53
I still think that we’re in a boom, I still think we’re in a investment super ai, but I think there was a healthy dose of skepticism applied to some of the more fantastical claims that have been made about AI. And I think this is why you saw there’s like ai, what, like a 10% correction in public AI stocks and there was that, MIT report that said that 95% of projects sai companies arya are not making it to production yet and so forth and so on.
Speaker: 1
14:17
So I feel like we’re getting in the weeds a little bit here, and what we should be talking about is to sort of where we are in this, in this AI super sai.
Speaker: 0
14:23
And where do you perceive us at? We’re in the experimentation phase. We’re in the pilot phase, but this issue around probabilistic versus deterministic makes it hard to trust the software. Is that what you think the key issue is?
Speaker: 1
14:36
Well, let me tell you why I think that this correction is actually healthy, is that after ChatGPT launch at the 2022 and then throughout 2023, the dominant narrative in AI is that AGI was just two to three years away. And everyone that kinda had their own definition of AGI was, but it was ai this idea of smarter than human superintelligence and ai of magic AI.
Speaker: 1
14:59
AI would be able to do everything. And as a result of that, you kinda had both utopian and dystopian narratives really proliferated. And so, you know, you started getting this, like, job loss narrative that within a few years, 50% of knowledge workers would be out of jobs. You got this rapid takeoff narrative that basically the leading AI models would be able to turn their intelligence towards improving themselves, towards recursive self improvement.
Speaker: 1
15:25
And therefore, within a couple of years, the leading models would basically achieve superintelligence and leave everyone else in the dust sana then capture all the value of humanity. And then based on that narrative, which, again, it was the same underlying narrative that fueled both utopian and and dystopian or doomer takes on AI.
Speaker: 1
15:46
You’ve got, I think, a huge backlash, which has already been forming, where you have a thousand bills running through state legislatures right now, and you have all this AI safety legislation. You got bills ai in California, the SB meh forty seven, which would have applied a tremendous amount of new regulation to AI.
Speaker: 1
16:04
So you saw this policy backlash happen as well, and it was all based on these fantastical and ai magic views of what AI was gonna do in just the next two to three years. And I think that the reason why this recent skepticism is healthy is because I think it’s rebutting all of vatsal.
Speaker: 1
16:21
And it’s showing that, you know, AI is a powerful tool. I mean, I I definitely think it’s a new and important form of computing, and it is gonna unlock tremendous value in the economy. But it’s gonna take us a while to get there. I mean, you can’t just tell the AI, you know, be a sales rep, be a customer service rep, and kind of throw it over the wall and expect that it’s gonna replace a human.
Speaker: 1
16:43
It takes a lot of prompting and iteration and validation to make the AI work, to make it generate business value. And if we were on a path towards rapid takeoff, then what you would see is that the leading AI models would be increasing the distance between like, the top one or two models would be increasing the distance between, you know, the rest of the models.
Speaker: 1
17:07
And instead, what we’re seeing is a clustering of model performance around the same performance benchmarks. Meh.
Speaker: 0
17:13
Right? They’re incrementally gaining to
Speaker: 1
17:14
be a little bit more incremental. It’s more evolutionary rather than revolutionary. And I I think this really crystallized around the launch of chat GPT ai, where a lot of people were expecting GPT five to be this huge breakthrough. Sam Altman was sort of teasing this concept by posting photos of the Death Shah. Yeah. The the idea that this model was gonna blow everybody else away.
Speaker: 1
17:35
And the reviews ended up being very mixed, and then we saw that on the performance evaluations. It’s not that the model didn’t represent progress. It just fell short of these lofty expectations that have been created.
Speaker: 0
17:46
Sai, Freeberg, let me get you in on this.
Speaker: 1
17:49
Just sorry. I’ve been kinda long winded here, but just let me just sum this up, which is
Speaker: 0
17:53
Please.
Speaker: 1
17:53
I think that what people can now see is that we’re not in, like, a a loop of recursive self improvement. We’re seeing that there are a handful of of great model companies, but the development of this technology is gonna be a more normal technology race. It’s not like the leading players just all of a sudden get a achieve AGI just very quickly.
Speaker: 1
18:13
And as a result of that, I I think because it is a more normal technology race, I think we can apply a more normal logic to it from both an investment and a policy standpoint. And I think that a lot of the narratives that were hyped up about imminent doom or imminent utopia, depending on what side you were on, We’re just massively overhyped.
Speaker: 1
18:37
And this is why I think it’s just a very healthy thing.
Speaker: 3
18:40
By the way, the other concerning thing is it’s concerning when models successively don’t get meaningfully better, especially because there’s a tendency for incremental models to get overfit benchmarks. That’s another concerning thing that I think people were scratching their heads about.
Speaker: 3
18:56
And if you look at the last big set of model updates, X and GROC, they didn’t really meaningfully improve their separation from the last generation model on the big benchmarks that matter. And that’s also very concerning because they tend to overfit to begin with.
Speaker: 1
19:10
Yeah. And I would just say that, you know, another just piece of evidence here is that the model companies are still leapfrogging each other to some degree with their latest versions. And again, that should not be possible if one model achieved rapid takeoff. The other thing you’re seeing is that it’s not like one model is dominating all the other models.
Speaker: 1
19:27
You’re seeing that models are developing areas of competitive advantage, they’re becoming increasingly specialized, they have different personalities. If ChattGbt has been accused of being sycophantish, Grok is maybe more based. I mean, they have different modes that they excel at.
Speaker: 1
19:43
Google, I think, has gotten really good at video, for example. Anthropic is is really good at coding. The specialization really belies this idea of one model becoming all knowing and all powerful. We’re seeing a proliferation now of specialization.
Speaker: 0
19:58
Let me bryden get Freiburg in here. Altman appeared to compare the AI craze to the .com bubble according to CNBC. Here’s the quote. Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes. Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes. And then a quote from Sam Altman, another quote.
Speaker: 0
20:19
I think we totally screwed up some things with the rollout of GPT-five. So it’s kind of admitting that, Freeberg. What does this mean in terms of the massive investment? Ai was talking about 500,000,000,000 So is this in hit do you think if you were to game what Sam is saying here, maybe he wants it to cool off.
Speaker: 0
20:37
Maybe these investments are too large given the problem and the progress. What’s the game on the field here, Freeburg, in terms of the massive investment that people are claiming this is sana require if we’re not seeing the results in corporations?
Speaker: 2
20:55
Ai, the big CapEx investment? Because most of the capital that’s been raised has been raised by the model companies and most of it has been deployed into chips, right, in data centers.
Speaker: 0
21:04
Right. So does that make sense right now or do we does that need to cool off as well while these companies prove, hey. We can get some things done in corporate Meh.
Speaker: 2
21:15
So I think one of the key things that’s being understood so, you know, the Internet was being connected. There’s connectivity and and fiber being deployed in a rate that exceeded the economic value creation by the end users on the Internet during the .com boom. And so as a result, the .com boom was a became a bubble that burst, but the ultimate promise of the Internet was realized many orders of magnitude greater than Ai think, you know, most folks declared and proclaimed at the time.
Speaker: 2
21:47
It was just delayed by a few years. I think it’s likely to be the same here. Whether this particular CapEx cycle is gonna have that ROIC or not, I think it’s it’s a bit TBD. But I think there’s kind of three big trends underway that are worth noting. The first is that there’s a realization now that you need to pair humans and human engineering with the generative tools that these generative AI systems are providing.
Speaker: 2
22:11
So you can get a bunch of code written, but you still need to debug the code. You still need to get it into production. You still need to get it to integrate. So this kind of pairing of humans with AI is something that’s being learned. What’s the right model?
Speaker: 2
22:23
It’s not that you just turn on generative AI and it runs your business for you. It’s ai, where does it fit in the org? Who are the people that run it? How do they use it? Etcetera. And then similar to that, I think we’re seeing a lot of partner models being developed.
Speaker: 2
22:35
So rather than have, like, a Sana or a video model just generate a movie, it turns out that you can use the generative AI to generate the objects and then use an existing rendering engine ai Unity to actually make the video. So those sorts of pairing models where you use what’s being called a deterministic system or an existing piece of software that integrates with generative AI can accelerate outcomes.
Speaker: 2
23:00
So filmmakers can now make AI movies by coupling the AI generative tools with an existing off the shelf kind of rendering system. And that works a lot better than just telling the AI make a bunch of video where then all the people look different. You can’t control the objects.
Speaker: 2
23:14
You can’t change the camera angle. You can’t change the framing, the color, the ai, all the features that you may wanna otherwise control. So layering AI on top of the existing system seems to be the right answer. And I think we’re seeing that not just in filmmaking or or digital content creation, but in other areas as well where the AI provides almost like a substrate that can sit on top of existing tools and just be like a marionette and do a better job.
Speaker: 2
23:36
And I think I think the third key thing that we’re seeing that’s causing a bit of the observed hiccup is this movement to SLMs. And you guys have seen a bunch of these papers from NVIDIA and others that have shown performance improvements by actually moving away from one large model that does it all to much smaller ai models that work in a specific task and a specific application or that work together as a network of models.
Speaker: 2
23:59
And my personal belief on this is actually that these models are gonna move towards SLMs that we don’t understand how and why they work the way they do in a network fashion. Because today, we’re designing the SLMs in a deterministic way. We’re saying this is an SLM that does x, y, or z.
Speaker: 2
24:12
But if the models eventually get developed by other models, those SLMs will become really, you know, not well understood, but they’ll work in a network. The reason that’s important is because this rearchitecturing of these systems dramatically reduces the energy cost and the dollar cost per token generated.
Speaker: 2
24:30
And so it brings down the cost and the run time of these systems. So to your point, Jay Cal, the CapEx investment suddenly gets much higher ROIC rather than the challenge ROIC that it’s dealing with today because the systems are so energy and cost inefficient today. So if the architectural redesigns work, then these systems become much more efficient, 10 x, a 100 x more efficient.
Speaker: 2
24:52
And I actually think at that point, token production will go way up, not way down. So those are three big trends that I see kind of underway right now that might be architecting the overall kind of ecosystem and and probably causing some of the observed hiccups. Jayco, what do you think? Is it ai do you think there’s a big slowdown underway? I mean Yeah.
Speaker: 0
25:10
I mean, it’s this is following exactly the technological curve that we see. Nick, you can pull it up here where we’ve seen this with smartphones and the internet itself, but the trough of disillusionment is probably where we’re living right now because there were so many expectations.
Speaker: 0
25:25
You know, this innovation comes out, people get really ai, massive amounts of money is invested, and then people wonder, Hey, was this a good investment or not? And then it just takes incremental improvement over time. We saw this with Uber, as an example, where people were like, Oh, it’ll never be profitable. It’ll never be profitable.
Speaker: 0
25:43
DoorDash will never work. And then they just added a couple of bucks and it scaled globally. The network effects kicked in. We’re going to see it again with self driving. Self driving is actually probably just getting through the peak of inflated expectations where people are starting to realize, oh, these edge cases are pretty serious.
Speaker: 0
25:59
You probably don’t want these things going too fast. You’re going to need to be very thoughtful about putting them on roads. And, that leads to a really intru interesting discussion. Sai, we should have at some point, on this program about should that be federal or local? Should the local states get to decide self driving rules on their roads, or should the federal government come in and make a blanket one?
Speaker: 0
26:22
But looking specifically at the sales one, we’re seeing on the field that maybe the salespeople aren’t being replaced by AI, but the SDRs are becoming 10 ai, like, literally 10 times more effective at finding the next lead at organizing leads and targets. So it’s definitely happening, but it’s incremental inside these organizations and it’s just sana take specialization and people have to actually embrace the tools.
Speaker: 0
26:49
That’s probably the biggest thing is there’s a lot of resistance to these tools already. And, once you get people actually embracing them, they start to work. But if people aren’t going to embrace them and there’s some resistance, it’s kind of like what we saw with the Internet. Yeah.
Speaker: 3
27:04
Here’s a big question that I have. You know how at some point, like, you get so invested in a way of doing things that when things change, it’s almost too hard to change the way your company orients? And you see it in every single phase of these big innovation cycles. The question is, is there a point at which these foundational model companies have invested too much money in LLMs where so many of their employees only understand vatsal.
Speaker: 3
27:38
And all of a bryden, there are completely different ways of building these models. State speak is one example. But then, you know, some new entrant decides to build a completely different kind of representation. They may also then build custom silicon for it. All of those things have yet to happen. And the reason is we’re really only a few years in to what should be a multi decade innovation cycle.
Speaker: 3
28:02
So those are like some really important questions because then you have this problem of the sunk cost fallacy of what we speak all this money on this LLM based approach. And now all of a sudden there’s this thing that comes around the corner. That’s the thing that I’m really curious about and waiting for is will there be these small teams and it may take advantage of what Friedberg said uses an LLM as a jumping off point but then builds an entirely different approach is able to generate entirely different and cheap Silicon that hasn’t happened yet.
Speaker: 3
28:34
And the reason it hasn’t happened is not because it doesn’t make sense, but it’s because we’re so early into it. Yeah. And then what arya these big guys do? The big guys have spent tens of billions of dollars Yeah. On all kinds of stuff, human capital, Speak, CAPEX. Data centers.
Speaker: 3
28:53
It’s gonna be
Speaker: 0
28:54
It’s gonna be It’s gonna
Speaker: 3
28:55
be really interesting.
Speaker: 0
28:56
Well, this study actually addresses this purchasing of AI tools from specialized vendors. Those succeeded two out of three times. So the statistics in that early study seem to, indicate you’re right about that ram off is if you’re doing something very specific. And we’ve got a couple of companies doing very specific things ai sai GPT is one of our companies we incubated, and they’re only going after, you know, tax and CPAs and being a co pilot for them.
Speaker: 0
29:23
Those things seem to be succeeding faster than going to a general wage model and asking tax questions to
Speaker: 3
29:29
it. There’s also all this other stuff that people never talk about that are very practical realities of building a Sai for example, we’ve been selling into the enterprise at $80.90. We’ll do this year. This is our first full year of business. We’ll do about $40,000,000 of bookings.
Speaker: 0
29:41
In the first year? Yeah. That’s crazy.
Speaker: 3
29:44
And it’s all back office type stuff, but our first customer where we delivered enormous gains, we were fired. And the reason we were fired was not because the technology wasn’t working, but it’s because as it goes lower and lower from the board and the CEO into the bowels of the organization, you actually run into huge pushback.
Speaker: 3
30:09
And I think that there’s going to be that cycle that we have to deal with as well, which is in all of these AI businesses, there’s all kinds of stuff that scare people. And there are many people in decision making roles at many of these companies that will have to sort out where’s their comfort level.
Speaker: 3
30:26
And it was like one of these things where I was like, well, what are we supposed to do? We escalated and blah, blah, blah, and it got resolved. But my point is that I think is a cycle that has yet to play itself out. In all of the Fortune 2,000, Global two thousand, I would not expect that the AI boogeyman that has been created doesn’t have some negative ramifications over the next couple of years as well as this stuff gets sorted out.
Speaker: 0
30:49
The last piece is the talent war. On Tuesday, the New York Times reported that Meta was looking at downsizing its AI division as part of a larger restructuring. Wall Street Journal then reported Meta has a hiring freeze across the Ai divisions, which is just crazy because just eight weeks ago, Zuck went crazy.
Speaker: 0
31:07
He was trying to buy Ilya’s, superintelligence startup. You remember Ilya ai, sai Zuck poached Daniel Gross. Meta acquihired the Scale AI team, and then they agreed to invest 14,000,000,000 in that. Sam Altman claims Zuck was making $100,000,000 offers regularly for OpenAI talent.
Speaker: 0
31:26
I’m curious, you know, what you think of that, Sachs, is the talent war seemed to go insane for a couple of months and now is pausing. What’s your take on all this, I don’t know, uncertainty, boom, bust cycle in such a compressed period of ai? Or is this just
Speaker: 1
31:44
I mean, you you arya seeing founders turning down multibillion dollar acquisition offers for startups that hadn’t even released a product yet as if those types of offers grow on trees, and they don’t. I mean, these types of 100,000,000 or billion dollar job offers, they don’t come along very often.
Speaker: 1
32:01
I mean, do you have to be at kind of the sweet spot of a boom cycle and you need a huge company with tons of money that feels like it’s strategically vulnerable and is at risk of being left behind. And if you get a confluence of those factors, then you can get ai crazy offers like that, but they don’t come along very often.
Speaker: 1
32:19
I think that what Meta is doing is probably digesting a little bit. They’ve now made a bunch of talent acquisitions. They’ve done some ai at, you know, very expensive acquihires, and they’re probably just consolidating a little bit. Like I said, I don’t think this is the bust part of the cycle. I don’t think that a bubble has popped or anything like that.
Speaker: 1
32:39
I actually think that we’re still probably early to the middle of this investment ai, and it’s just a healthy correction and sentiment here that people are realizing it’s gonna be a little bit harder and take more work than just, oh, the AI is gonna figure out how to improve itself and we get to superintelligence.
Speaker: 1
32:56
That was always a little bit of a fantasy thing.
Speaker: 0
32:59
Meh should have taken the billion dollar offer from Sai or Ilya should have taken the 30,000,000,000 SACs. I mean, these things never happen. And ai you’re saying I mean, I I
Speaker: 1
33:06
guess it depends how much they have in the bank account. You know, if if they’re already, like, billionaires from whatever they did before, then then maybe it doesn’t matter. But if you were just starting out, for example, and didn’t have any money in the bank, that’s a pretty hard thing to turn down, I mean, realistically.
Speaker: 3
33:23
Yeah. They probably they probably sold a bunch of OpenAI equity at $305,100,000,000,000.
Speaker: 1
33:29
They’re both OpenAI cofounders. So
Speaker: 3
33:31
They seem like they’re free rolling, so they have no incentive to sell.
Speaker: 1
33:34
Yeah. Which is fine. It’s just that there’s a lot of people who’ve never been through a bus cycle before. And Yeah. If they think that this is the normal state of the world, they’re gonna be sorely mistaken.
Speaker: 3
33:45
By the way, you’re right, Sachs. It’s hard to build as you know because you did a a billion dollar company that then exits for more than a billion dollar. It is hard. Right.
Speaker: 1
33:53
Where you justify that valuation based on fundamentals. So right now, we’re in a part of the cycle where you can justify that valuation based on its strategic value to a multitrillion dollar market cap company, but that only lasts while those companies are in the market for strategic acceleration.
Speaker: 0
34:12
Yeah. If they’re behind, if they’re stuck or
Speaker: 1
34:13
not, then you have to make your company work on its own as an actual business. And to get to a $30,000,000,000 valuation based on fundamentals, that is extraordinarily difficult. I mean, that implies, you know, multiple billions of revenue, actual revenue.
Speaker: 0
34:29
Does somebody wanna underwrite 500,000,000,000 for OpenAI common shares? Anybody think that that is a good trade
Speaker: 3
34:35
I’ll make the I’ll make the bull case. I’ll make the bull case.
Speaker: 0
34:37
Yeah. Please. Yeah.
Speaker: 3
34:38
I think the simplest way to make the bull case is if you look at the CAGR on their MAUs and the conversion from MAUs to DAOs, you essentially take a small minor percentage of the Facebook or Google terminal ARPU and apply it to some number of MAUDOs three or four years from now. So if I had to guess, if you take four or 500,000,000 MAUDO growing at I’m guessing let’s just be ai, 50%.
Speaker: 0
35:05
100,000,000 weekly active users. Right? Sai
Speaker: 3
35:08
Seventy seven fifty. Okay. So then so then I would probably put that at, like, 500 DAO to be conservative. It’s probably doubling every two years. So 500 goes to a billion, billion goes to two in four years. And at 2,000,000,000 Dow, they generate a tenth of Facebook’s revenue, just to be very conservative.
Speaker: 3
35:28
And you probably get to a trillion 5 valuation then.
Speaker: 0
35:32
Right. So it’s you could you could triple up on that meh. Yeah.
Speaker: 1
35:34
I mean, look. OpenAI has actual revenue. I mean, they they have actual revenue because they have subscriptions, and they appear to have the dominant position in the consumer space. And it is a replacement for a lot of people for search, which is the most lucrative franchise on the Internet, and this is one of their applications.
Speaker: 1
35:52
So I actually think that you can make that case, you know, pretty comfortably. But can we go back to a point you were making before, Jai Cal, about in the survey that the attempts to just apply some sort of generalized AI model didn’t work very well, like 95% of the time ai didn’t succeed in these large enterprises.
Speaker: 1
36:11
But if they used a more specific vertical application or vertical model or an SLM approach, which is more a smaller ai model, then it showed much greater success. I mean, that makes a lot of sense to meh, is that in order to drive business value, there’s a lot of what I would call last mile problems. Right?
Speaker: 1
36:29
Like, LLMs need context. And so you have to, first of all, connect to all of your enterprise data sources, and you have to prompt them in a very detailed way in order to get to a good answer. And then you have to validate that answer to make sure it’s not a hallucination, and then you need to iterate on it.
Speaker: 1
36:46
And so this idea that you’re just gonna have one superintelligence that just figures all this stuff out is just not the way it’s playing out in the real world. You’re seeing, again, a lot of very specific business problems that have to be solved. But I I think that this is a great thing ultimately for the ecosystem because it implies that you’re gonna get lots of vertical applications and lots of specialized models that capture value in lots of different markets.
Speaker: 1
37:15
And that’s actually the way that we’re gonna drive this throughout the economy as opposed to it just being one foundation model eating all the value. So I I think this is a very healthy thing for the ecosystem.
Speaker: 0
37:25
Yeah. It makes total sense that the vertical systems would feel more deterministic, Sachs, because they’re giving they have a tighter problem set, a tighter data set to actually come to an answer. Whereas the, you know, probabilistic, you’re just asking an LLM to come up with a business plan for you.
Speaker: 0
37:44
It just feels like it could be 80% correct, 90% correct, as opposed to 99% correct, which the vertical ones are actually getting very good at getting the correct answer. Okay. Let’s talk a little bit.
Speaker: 1
37:55
That last 10% is fundamental and that’s where you get all the the last mile problems. And you have to understand the the the industry in order to solve the the problems of how you kind of go from, let’s say, 90% accuracy or effectiveness to 99, which is where the business value is.
Speaker: 0
38:11
Well, and you use last mile, Sachs. I think it’s quite appropriate if you look at self driving, which is the tip of the spear, I think, in this argument. Waymo has a bit more deterministic model. They’re they don’t have, safety drivers. Robotaxi has safety drivers for a good reason.
Speaker: 0
38:27
They’re using a probabilistic model and they’re getting an intervention every, you know, x hundreds of miles, let’s sai. Which means if you were to use it daily, you’re sana have, you know, an intervention, I don’t know, every week or two. And obviously they’ll iterate and they’ll get that down to the same level as Waymo.
Speaker: 0
38:46
But on what ai, Freeberg, on what timetable do you see a probabilistic model ai Elon is pursuing with his robotaxi program versus the more, you know, deterministic one? What when do you think those cross over? Do you have any insight as a scientist or any guess?
Speaker: 2
39:02
I don’t know.
Speaker: 0
39:04
Yeah. That is the $10,000,000,000,000 question is when will that problem be solved? Alright. Let’s talk a little politics here. According to PolyMarket, Gavin Newsom is the early favorite in the twenty twenty eight Democratic presidential race. So who gets the nomination? So here’s some background.
Speaker: 0
39:20
Newsom is surging in a couple of polls this week. Here’s one from Politico that asked California Democrats and left leaning Independents who their preferred candidate would be in 2028. Newsom came in first with 25% of the vote. Then Kamala, your favorite, Sai, and Pete Buttigieg. AOC, your favorite, Chamath there. Tim Waltz, another one of Saxe’s favorite.
Speaker: 0
39:42
And the odds have jumped ai about nine percentage points on Poly Arya issued Poly Market. Newsom at 28, AOC at 14, and a bunch of people, you know, in the single digits that you could probably guess. So your thoughts on the early information here. Does this is any of this even valid, Sacks, in your ai, or is it just too much time between now and then?
Speaker: 1
40:03
Well, I think it’s valid in the sense that you’re seeing Democrats react positively to what Newsom is doing. And what what Newsom is doing is mirroring Trump’s style in an attempt to to, again, give Democrats what they want, which is they they they want a Trump of their own.
Speaker: 1
40:22
And despite Democrats feigning objections to Trump’s style, this is really what they sana, is they want someone who they perceive to be a fighter. That said, I think there are two problems with presumptively crowning Gavin as the nominee three years in advance. One is that what Newsom is doing here is completely performative.
Speaker: 1
40:43
Everyone can see that he’s acting and he’s aping Trump’s style or what he thinks is Trump’s style, Whereas Ram is completely authentic. Trump is always Trump, and everyone understands that, and there’s something very authentic and likable about that. Whereas Ai think that Gavin comes across as being synthetic or plastic, and you don’t really have a sense of who the real person is.
Speaker: 1
41:03
And I think trying to pretend to be the less version of Trump only, I think, reinforces that that problem that he already had. So one is authenticity. The other is that I think that Democrats make a huge mistake if they think that Trump’s popularity is based on his style. I mean, it’s true that Trump has a trillion dollar personality, and that is very helpful in politics.
Speaker: 1
41:30
But, ultimately, I think the reason why Trump has done so well for a decade is because he’s been on the right side of a bunch of core issues in American politics that other people just weren’t focused on or weren’t
Speaker: 0
41:41
talking about. City seems to be one that heads up versus Gavin Newsom will become one of the attack vectors or one of the grand debates. You have Freidberg, you have California’s, you know, descent into madness in the major cities. And then obviously, Trump is cleaning up DC from a very first principled basis.
Speaker: 0
42:00
Like, hey, you can’t camp here. Period. Full stop. So what do you think the chances are here, Friedberg, that this new strategy, going on the podcast, having a podcast, being spicy on social media is sana work for Gavin or are you in Saxe’s camp? It’s a bit performative and maybe not fake. And ai the way, Gavin Newsom, can’t wait to have you on the pod. Go ahead, Friedberg.
Speaker: 2
42:22
I would say that the current polling is a reflection of the non Trump aligned market’s response to Trump. And so it will change certainly over time as the results of the administration’s actions bear out, etcetera. One way to think about this or forecast this is what is the reaction going to be to this administration?
Speaker: 2
42:46
I think there’s a as I’ve talked about many, many times, a very high probability that someone who’s a little bit more socialist aligned is gonna end up being kind of thrust forward here, and I think AOC fits the bill there. So then I think the question is, what’s the Republican response going to be to the choice they may have in trying to prop up or frame up one of those two candidates?
Speaker: 2
43:08
And I think, frankly, there may be some group that would say, we would rather be up against the socialist because they’re gonna look like idiots and we’re gonna win. And so there’s gonna be, weirdly, support for a socialist like candidate. The other side is the honest moderate question, which is who would you rather have as president, a socialist or Gavin Newsom?
Speaker: 2
43:30
And I do think a lot of moderates would say if I had to pick between those two, excluding the Republican candidate, I would wanna pick the moderate. I would wanna pick Gavin.
Speaker: 0
43:39
Chamath, what issue will determine the midterms and then the twenty twenty eight election? Look at your crystal ball there, Chamath, and tell us what you sai.
Speaker: 3
43:48
Oh, it’s a
Speaker: 0
43:48
really good question. Ram. Midterms might be easier to think about. Right?
Speaker: 3
43:53
I think the midterms are going to be about the economy, but the economy is going to be a window into a lot of these other issues, the safety security issue, the immigration issue, the tariff issue, rates. I think rates are going to be an enormous swing factor here. I think Powell is really holding on white knuckled to a position that probably doesn’t underlie the data.
Speaker: 3
44:17
So I think in the short term, it’s just going to be more of an economic up or down vote for the Trump administration. Many things I think are positive and in their control, but there are a few things that are not in their control. In 2028, I don’t know. The one thing I would say about the candidacy though ai like I don’t know if you guys remember, but when the Republican primary process started, the person at the top of the polls at the time was Ron DeSantis.
Speaker: 3
44:42
And I said, you do not sana be ahead early because people never win. They never win.
Speaker: 0
44:49
They take all the arrows and speak too early?
Speaker: 3
44:51
No. It’s it’s not even that. It’s just ai they never win. So if I had to apply that rubric here, what I would say is the practical choice that the Democratic voters will have is to actually ask whether they want a replay of California on an American 50 state scale. And if you look at it through that lens, I think Gavin Newsom is going to have a very difficult path because of what has transpired over his tenure as the governor.
Speaker: 3
45:25
And he’s going to have to explain away a lot Sai I think that in the absence of real choices, I think that he’s the clear winner What does that phrase in the land of the ai, the one eyed man is king sort of the thing Ai think when you actually go into the election cycle starting after ‘twenty six and ‘twenty seven, honestly, it’s going to be up in the air What I will tell you is that the way that the electoral college is set up and the voting dynamics for the presidency is set up, a socialist cannot win.
Speaker: 3
45:55
But the way that the democratic primaries are set up, a socialist can absolutely win. Sai this is the sort of Saloni point, which is I think for the Republican side, the best outcome is a very radical agenda that isn’t really supported by substantive facts and is more supported by vibes.
Speaker: 3
46:19
This is what I feel. I just feel it should be right. And I think that those things may win a primary, but will just get destroyed in a federal election. What about you, the world’s greatest moderate? What do you think?
Speaker: 0
46:30
Pretty clear that the socialist movement is happening, and that is going to inspire a lot of young people to come out ai they did in New York ram Andami. And I think you have to think about what the platform is. I agree the economy will determine the midterms. But I would look ahead at the core issues we’ve discussed here many times, Freeburg.
Speaker: 0
46:47
And if I was advising the Democrats, I would smash the Republicans where they don’t speak up about important issues to the American voter and where young people feel they are being ignored. So what would I say if I was them? If I was running their platform in 2028? I would go with real wages that are stagnant and Trump doesn’t talk about that. In fact, he’s cutting taxes on the rich.
Speaker: 0
47:12
They got a credible attack vector right there that nobody’s talking about the minimum wage and Trump doesn’t care. JD doesn’t care about you or the minimum wage or your wages. I would go after education being unaffordable. And again, Trump and JD don’t talk about that. Then I would go after housing. Republicans don’t talk about that. They don’t talk about housing.
Speaker: 0
47:30
And then I would go right at the immigrant issue, and I’d say, listen, America is for immigration. This country was built off of immigrants, and JD and Trump sana pull up the ladder behind everybody and not allow other people to immigrate to this country after they benefited from it.
Speaker: 0
47:46
That’s the perfect attack vector for beating the Republicans in 2028: housing, wages, education, and health care. These are things you never hear Trump talk about. You never hear JD talking about these. And I think that that’s the way to if they sana to beat No. They talk about them all the time.
Speaker: 0
48:04
It’s it’s way down the bottom of the list. No. They talk they don’t. They when’s the last time what’s okay. So tell me, Jamoff, what is the proposal?
Speaker: 1
48:12
Went up significantly in Trump’s first tyler, and then they started stagnating in under Biden. And that’s the whole purpose of his trade policy is to encourage reshoring of manufacturing in The United States. Ai bill.
Speaker: 3
48:22
He passed a huge tax bill that locked in all these gains. No tax on tips. So you can debate the impact to the broad population, but there are enough examples where actual take home wages are higher than what they would be in a counterfactual.
Speaker: 1
48:36
Yeah. And by the way, Gavin Newsom has a super majority in the California legislature. He can run the state however he wants. He also has a very compliant court that will rubber stamp his decisions. Completely different than Trump, who has a very narrow majority, and he has a court that basically tries to stop everything he does. So Gavin Newsom can run the state.
Speaker: 1
48:56
He could be operating the state for the benefit of its citizens instead of holding all these performative press conferences and doing podcasts and tweeting all day. So where where is the program that you’re talking about? It doesn’t exist.
Speaker: 0
49:08
It’s a fine criticism, but if if the I’m talking about the Democrats as a group. If the Democrats came out and just said, we’re gonna add a dollar to the federal minimum wage every year for the eight years we’re in office, that would fly with the American
Speaker: 2
49:19
public asset that we’re gonna build. That’s not a strategy or a sustain. Sure, you
Speaker: 0
49:22
can make that argument. I’m just telling you what the winning argument is. The winning argument is- Well,
Speaker: 3
49:26
no, you’re just saying whatever it takes to get elected, but giving stuff away is not- Help adults make hard decisions.
Speaker: 0
49:32
You mean ai giving people no tax on their overtime and no tax on their tips? Those kind of giveaways, Jamal?
Speaker: 1
49:40
Those are the tax plan that That’s helping middle class and working class.
Speaker: 0
49:43
Sai don’t disagree, but to the point of giving away free stuff doesn’t work, it actually does. It does get people out to vote. People were very motivated when they heard those proposals by Trump. I’m saying they should just take that proposal and 10 x it. That’s the way to win.
Speaker: 0
49:56
I’m not saying it makes sense. I’m not saying I’m endorsing it. I’m just giving you the playbook.
Speaker: 1
50:00
Okay. Well, what I would do to to fight your your playbook of empty promises is I would actually talk about the record of the candidate.
Speaker: 3
50:08
Exactly.
Speaker: 1
50:09
And I think we’re talking about a state like California, which is thoroughly blue and sai been run by Democrats now for a long time. And Gavin probably will be the nominee because I do think that his performative antics are working with the base. I mean, they wanna anti Trump.
Speaker: 1
50:22
But the the way to attack this is to talk about the record here. So let’s just go through some of the numbers. So as we all know, we pay the highest taxes in the country for the worst public services. Gavin’s spending turned a ai surplus into a $20,000,000,000 deficit in just a couple of years, and somehow none of that money went to fill the reservoirs or fire hydrants, and so we had entire neighborhoods burned down as a result, and they can’t get permits to rebuild.
Speaker: 1
50:49
California has the fourth largest economy in the world, so that’s good, But we have the highest rates of poverty, homelessness, inequality, illiteracy, and wage stagnation. So, yes, wage stagnation, JCal, is the highest in the country, and we have the third highest unemployment among the 50 states. We’re second only to Hawaii in housing costs.
Speaker: 1
51:11
So you wanna talk about making promises to lower housing costs. But if you look at blue states like California, they’re among the worst. We’re the worst in energy costs, and we have the highest rate of both retail crime and frivolous lawsuits. And that’s why businesses are moving out of the state.
Speaker: 1
51:27
You may have seen that Bed Bath and Beyond said that even as they’re opening 300 more physical stores, they’re not gonna return to California. And this just got the CEO mocked by Newsom because he never actually takes any of the criticism to heart. He just sort of deflects it.
Speaker: 1
51:42
So until the Democrats, I think, confront why they really lost, okay, And it’s it’s not just because of the style of Trump. They wanna just attribute it to Trump’s ai, but the reality is it’s because of the the policies Ai policies. Yes. Ai the record. And until they’re willing to confront those things and change their policies, then I think they’re gonna continue losing.
Speaker: 3
52:07
I put into Grock the following question. And the reason I asked the question this way is I think that the three most credible candidates that have a record to run on on the Democratic side are Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer and Wes Moore. So I asked Grock ram Michigan, California and Meh.
Speaker: 3
52:24
So three Democratic states run by three very popular well known Democratic governors on three metrics, quality of life, cost of living and crime, and summarize that into a ranked overall list. Right? So pretty standard plain vanilla question. And at the end, I can publish this later if you sana, but at the end, the final overall rankings were Maryland first, excels in quality of life and has the lowest estimated crime rates with a moderately high but manageable cost of living.
Speaker: 3
52:57
Michigan, most affordable with decent quality of life and moderate crime, making it a balanced choice. California, high quality of life in terms of opportunities and lifestyle, but severely hampered by high costs and elevated crime rates. And there’s all kinds of detail, but I was just giving you the final summary.
Speaker: 3
53:15
So I think that when you get into a Democratic primary, those are three people that will run. And I think Democratic voters will have to choose what record do I want to put up to vote for the broad voting American public? Is it California’s? Is it Maryland’s? Or is it Michigan’s? And if you just do a quick AI driven analysis, Wes Moore, then Gretchen Whitmer, then Gavin Newsom, just on the facts.
Speaker: 0
53:45
Yeah. Makes sense. Freyberg, your thoughts on the the platform I put out there or anything else with this 2028 discussion as we wrap up?
Speaker: 2
53:52
No. I think the socialists are gonna continue to grow their momentum and, you know, it’ll be fun. Sai what happens.
Speaker: 0
54:01
Okay. Here we go. So Trump had a busy week. He met with Putin, then Zelensky and some of the leaders in Europe, Sachs, this is your ai, to shine. We didn’t talk about this yet because it happened after we taped, but last Friday, Trump met with Putin in Alaska. A lot of hand wringing around that.
Speaker: 0
54:17
Lasted about three hours. No ceasefire was reached. That was, the stated goal of it. And, on Monday, Trump met the
Speaker: 1
54:25
state of the goal.
Speaker: 0
54:26
Okay. I’m just going by what Trump said when he was on his way there, that he wanted a ceasefire. And then the, on Monday, Trump met with Zelensky and a bunch of European leaders at the White House. First in person meeting since that argument, you remember back in the overall office in February, and, included the EU president, NATO secretary general, chancellor of Germany.
Speaker: 0
54:49
Italy and UK showed up as well. Your thoughts on where we’re at with the Ukraine and if we’re going to get a ceasefire, a peace negotiation, or a peace settlement, or if The United States is just going to walk away. Because it seems like Trump is a little perturbed by the progress here, and he has said, you know, maybe it’s just up to them to figure it out, and he’ll be done with the whole thing.
Speaker: 0
55:11
Your thoughts, Sachs?
Speaker: 1
55:13
Well, I think that the the Alaska Summit was major progress. I think that, first of all, the president deserves enormous credit for reestablishing diplomacy and communication with the Russians. There literally hasn’t been a meeting between The US president and the Russian president since 2021 ai this war is going on and while the war has continued to escalate.
Speaker: 1
55:32
I guess the Biden administration’s policy was just to ignore the Russians and roll their dice and hope that the war didn’t escalate out of control. In any event, I think Trump deserves a lot of credit for, again, reestablishing that diplomatic connection and trying to use diplomacy to end the war.
Speaker: 1
55:47
And it was shocking to see how much Democrats in the media were openly rooting for him to fail in these efforts to end this war. And, effectively, they’re rooting for hundreds of thousands of more people to die or get maimed.
Speaker: 0
56:00
They were pretty hysterical, right, on the news? It was pretty crazy.
Speaker: 1
56:03
Yeah. And by the way, they they claim that they care about the Ukrainian people, but the Ukrainian people, by large majorities now, want this war to end, and they’re willing to make meaningful concessions to do it. So there was a poll by Gallup, which, Nick, maybe you can throw this on the screen, where a year or two ago, something like 70% of Ukrainians wanted to keep fighting the war.
Speaker: 1
56:24
Now that number is down to 24%. Again, the vast majority are looking to achieve a peace. And I think that president Trump and president Putin made some important progress in terms of getting to an eventual peace deal, and I think there are a few planks here. Number one was the recognition that we should try to get to a comprehensive peace deal, not a ai.
Speaker: 1
56:44
A ceasefire is temporary, and the Russians have already said they wouldn’t do it because they understand ram their point of view that this would just give the Ukrainians time to regroup and rearm and try to reset, but it wouldn’t end the war. And the truth of the matter is that when you’re fighting a war and losing, you don’t get to call a time out.
Speaker: 1
57:02
So the Russians have been rejecting this idea of a ceasefire for months, and I think that it was wise if our ultimate goal is to get to a deal to recognize that the comprehensive peace deal is what we wanna get to. So that’s point number one. Point number two is that president Trump acknowledged that Ukraine would not be joining NATO, which was the key source of the friction, and it’s the thing that ultimately led to this war.
Speaker: 1
57:26
So I think that definitively taking NATO off the table, I think, was a very important precondition to getting to an eventual peace. And then I think the third thing was that the parties, both the Russians and the Americans, agreed that there would have to be territorial concessions of some kind.
Speaker: 1
57:44
And we don’t know all the details yet. There was some conversation about land swaps. But the point of the matter is that we’re not going back to the pre war status quo ante. The Russians have taken the big chunk of territory. The Ukrainians have not been able to get it back.
Speaker: 1
58:01
People are trying to blame Trump for this somehow, but the real cause of this is the failure of the counter offensive in the 2023. Remember, we gave the Ukrainians something like a $100,000,000,000 worth of weapons to retake that territory, and it was an abysmal failure. They didn’t even make it past the first Surajevic ai.
Speaker: 1
58:19
That is a real cause of why the Ukrainians are gonna lose territory in this sai, is they’re simply not able to retake it. And I think there was a general recognition coming out of that Alaska summit that there would have to be territorial concessions. And I think in these three pillars, I think you have the basis for a comprehensive peace deal, which is, again, number one, we’re going for a peace deal, not a ai.
Speaker: 1
58:42
Number two, no NATO. And number three, we have to recognize the realities on the ground. Now I think the big question mark, I think we could get to a peace deal pretty quickly if Zelensky and the Europeans were willing to acknowledge these three points, but so far, they have not been willing to acknowledge those three points, and I think this is one of the things that if you’re listening to the remarks the following Monday when the Europeans came to the White House, there was no recognition.
Speaker: 1
59:07
They were still clamoring for a ceasefire, you know, again, which the Russians shah rejected, as opposed to a conference of peace. They were still clamoring for NATO, and they were still rejecting the idea of any territorial concessions, including even Crimea, which was lost over a decade ago.
Speaker: 1
59:24
So I think that the issue we have right now is that Zelensky and the Ukrainian government, not the people, but the Ukrainian elite and some of these European countries that are backing him, are not willing to make the compromises necessary to achieve a peace deal. And as president Trump has said, at the end of the day, you need the Russians and the Ukrainians to agree.
Speaker: 1
59:45
So I think that president Trump deserves enormous credit here for reestablishing diplomacy, for making substantial progress towards a comprehensive peace deal. But at the end of the day, unless Zelensky starts being willing to make compromises, I don’t know how you’re gonna get to that deal.
Speaker: 0
01:00:00
Yeah. Freeberg, Dave, any thoughts on this negotiation? Chamath, anything?
Speaker: 3
01:00:06
Well, I was pretty curious about the historical pattern of this, so I just went back and here’s what I learned. What’s interesting to note is that since 1945, so not assuming, you know, conflicts in Africa because they are not really quite part of the Western political global order per sai, it’s important to ask the question like, how have other territorial disputes panned out?
Speaker: 3
01:00:33
So there are disputes that end in stalemates. And when you end up in a stalemate, you basically arrange a DMZ demilitarized zone type arrangement. So there’s one in Korea, ai? 1953 to now. There’s one in Cyprus, 1974 to right now, and there’s one in Kashmir, 1947 to today.
Speaker: 3
01:00:53
And then there’s this kind of thing in between Israel and Lebanon. And then second, there are disputes where there’s some action taken by one country to take something by force, but then there’s no consensus internationally as to who owns the territory. So Crimea, as Meh mentioned, 2014 to present, and then Israel and West East Jerusalem. Sorry.
Speaker: 3
01:01:16
So I think the point is that unless President Trump figures out a way to do something that’s frankly truly unprecedented. The historical pattern is that it’s been nearly impossible for even the most powerful and influential person in the world to frankly draw deals in these kinds of situations, especially when they become protracted.
Speaker: 3
01:01:39
And I think that’s what he’s getting to when he reinforces these things never would have started or gotten this far had I been president. That’s what he sai. And I think this is what he’s referring to, which is that the longer these things get drawn out and particularly with Russia, Ukraine and Israel, Gaza, you’re talking about conflicts and historical issues that have been simmering for hundreds of years and in some cases, thousands of years all the way back to the antiquity.
Speaker: 3
01:02:09
So I don’t know. I just think that it’s an incredibly, incredibly difficult position and I just don’t know what’s going to happen. But I think that for modern progress to happen, I think it’s important for both of these two issues to get put to bed as quickly as possible.
Speaker: 1
01:02:29
Jay Cal, what do you think? And we saw the media attacking Trump for even daring to hold negotiations with the Russians. Do you think this was a good idea or do you think that somehow, Trump was caving to Putin?
Speaker: 0
01:02:38
I give Trump a lot of credit. He is incredibly good at foreign policy and specifically with dictators. If you look at our past presidents, they didn’t want to meet with Putin. They didn’t sana meet with Kim Jong Un, Kim Jong il. They thought, isolation was the best policy. It’s not.
Speaker: 0
01:02:54
I think talking to these folks and trying to find common ground is the best policy, even if it’s a 5% chance of it actually working out, which is what I think any president dealing with a dictator and a despot like, you know, Putin is gonna have. I think you have a five or 10% chance. And I think Trump and Biden actually had a lot in common that worked.
Speaker: 0
01:03:17
The loan leasing of the weapons and not costing the American tax payer any money where a lot of partisan people said, oh my God, this is costing the Americans so much. It’s actually, Trump has figured out a way to make it profitable. He’s selling more weapons to Ukraine and he got us the mineral rights.
Speaker: 0
01:03:32
It turns out Trump was able to turn a cost center or a supposed cost center into a profit center in terms of this specific war. And if you look at the sanctions, Trump has increased the sanctions. So Trump had my exact position that I fought for here on this podcast for the past couple of years in this conflict, which was keep the pressure up on Putin.
Speaker: 0
01:03:56
And Trump took it over the top by going to Putin’s main client for his oil now, which is India, and putting a massive tariff on them and threatening them with a huge tariff. That was a bold, audacious way to deal with Putin. So I give Trump a ton of credit for trying to make peace here.
Speaker: 1
01:04:15
Okay. So here’s my question.
Speaker: 0
01:04:16
Hold on. Let me just finish. Yeah. And Putin has been absolutely humiliated. He can’t even get to Kyiv, let alone take over Finland or Poland. And this has cost Russia, their greatest customer, which is the EU, Germany. These people are never gonna buy his oil again, not after what happened here.
Speaker: 0
01:04:35
And that you can give a lot of credit to Trump because he told them when they built their oil pipelines that the Germans were lunatics for doing that and for creating a massive revenue stream for a dictator who is, in my mind, a war criminal. What he did in invading Ukraine makes him a war criminal. What he did in kidnapping these children makes him a war criminal.
Speaker: 0
01:05:00
I think it’s awesome that Trump is doing this intervention, even if it has a five or 10% chance of working. And then making the NATO ai pay their fair share and selling them more weapons, I think also brilliant. So I give Trump a lot of credit here. He’s aligned exactly what I said we should be doing, which is holding dictators who invade other countries accountable for it.
Speaker: 0
01:05:23
And he’s added to it the fact that he can connect with people. So I give him a ton of credit for it, Zach. Sai know that’s maybe not the answer you want, but that’s how I push you to
Speaker: 1
01:05:30
get it. Ai think you use this highly moralistic language and you engage in a lot of name calling, and I actually think that’s
Speaker: 0
01:05:36
ai Which one? Which name is inaccurate, please? Dictator or war criminal?
Speaker: 1
01:05:40
Well, look. You’re complimenting Trump for engaging in diplomacy with Putin, but then at the same time, you wanna call him a dictator and war criminal, and that’s not gonna be conducive to actually trying to reach a peace agreement. That’s ai.
Speaker: 0
01:05:50
Thank you. Doing the negotiation. If I was doing the negotiation, I wouldn’t come in and say, hey, dictator war criminal, let’s fight for peace. I’m giving you my personal belief as sai person not ai.
Speaker: 1
01:06:00
Sai you’re praising and you’re praising Trump for increasing the pressure and leverage that he has with the Russians, which I think is fine. My question for you is, would you increase the pressure or leverage with respect to Zelensky? Sai, for example, would you tell Zelensky, in no uncertain terms, listen, stop demanding to be part of NATO because it’s not happening. In fact, the president has done that.
Speaker: 1
01:06:21
What about,
Speaker: 0
01:06:23
The the answer to that question is meh. I would say, listen, it’s not realistic to join NATO. You can get some security guarantees. There’s sort of talk of this NATO ai, so I would agree with that. I would say, listen, we’re gonna take, and I said this on a previous episode, we should just take off NATO inclusion for, like, twenty years.
Speaker: 1
01:06:40
Okay. So here’s the ai work. What about territorial concessions?
Speaker: 0
01:06:44
I think that’s a decision Ukraine has to make. We should encourage them to make whatever decision is best for them. But if they wanna keep fighting this thing, that’s gonna be up to their people to decide if they wanna fight for their land.
Speaker: 1
01:06:56
Well, the people have said they don’t wanna keep the the peep the problem you have right now is that 70% of Ukrainians say they don’t wanna keep fighting.
Speaker: 0
01:07:03
Sai they’re
Speaker: 1
01:07:04
ready. Sounds
Speaker: 0
01:07:04
like Zelensky
Speaker: 1
01:07:05
should. Concessions.
Speaker: 0
01:07:06
Meh. So it sounds like Zelensky should listen to his people. Yes.
Speaker: 1
01:07:09
I think that’s
Speaker: 0
01:07:09
his decision to make. I think he has sovereignty and the people get to make that decision in his country.
Speaker: 1
01:07:14
Well, but the the problem you have is Assange Zelensky. Right? It says ruling click. They have canceled elections, and they will remain in power as long as the war continues. So they there’s a conflict of interest there. And there’s a lot of money flowing into Ukraine because of the war.
Speaker: 1
01:07:30
So what if the ruling elite wants to keep the war going forever while the people want it to stop?
Speaker: 0
01:07:36
Yeah. They’re gonna face a revolution right quick. And so I think they have to take the citizens of Ukraine into account, and it’s a tough decision for them to make, but it’s not our decision to make for them. Is that a reasonable position? It sounds like a reasonable position.
Speaker: 1
01:07:51
Yeah. I think it’s reasonable.
Speaker: 0
01:07:52
Yeah. I mean, I don’t
Speaker: 1
01:07:52
I don’t Look. At the end of the day, the Ukrainians and the Russians have to agree. Yes. And I I think that of of the major parties, I think president Trump cares the most about peace. I mean, I think he is pushing the hardest for there to be a peace deal.
Speaker: 0
01:08:06
I I I, you know, I I know people are, like, a little flabbergasted that I really believe that Trump is great at this. I think he’s great at this. He is great at negotiating with difficult people, and I think he’s going to get it done. I think he’s got a fifty fifty chance of getting this done.
Speaker: 0
01:08:24
And I think that people didn’t even
Speaker: 3
01:08:26
try Just admit it. You like him. You really like him.
Speaker: 0
01:08:30
I know.
Speaker: 3
01:08:31
And ever since Ai I
Speaker: 0
01:08:32
personally like Trump or not, it has nothing to do with that. I think I I call balls and strikes here. It’s all balls and strikes for me.
Speaker: 3
01:08:39
No. No. No. You’re you’re in like with him. You may be in love with him.
Speaker: 0
01:08:43
I love Jason. Ai. I love it. I love it. With my guy, vice president JD Vance. Wait. Wait.
Speaker: 3
01:08:48
Wait. And you you loved it when he said even Jason. You loved it.
Speaker: 0
01:08:51
Well, I thought it was hilarious as a troll.
Speaker: 3
01:08:54
How many people did you send that link to? Be honest.
Speaker: 0
01:08:57
I just tweeted it. I didn’t send it to anybody. I tweeted it.
Speaker: 3
01:08:59
Okay. So everybody A million people.
Speaker: 0
01:09:01
By a million people. I mean, it was a it’s a it’s a surreal funny moment and a great troll Is it the ai, Joe? Is
Speaker: 3
01:09:07
it the high? It’s not a troll. It’s not a troll.
Speaker: 0
01:09:10
I mean, it
Speaker: 3
01:09:10
was a troll
Speaker: 0
01:09:11
sai part, I think. I think Sachs may have encouraged it.
Speaker: 3
01:09:14
It’s an incredible thing that you got.
Speaker: 0
01:09:16
Let’s keep these great debates going here on the All In podcast, a platform for important discussions. Another amazing episode. Summer months, coming to a close and we’ll see you all in Los Angeles for the fourth edition of the All in Summit. I’m so excited. Back to the office
Speaker: 3
01:09:33
next week. Back to the office. Love you guys.
Speaker: 0
01:09:35
Back to the office and then back to the grind.
Speaker: 3
01:09:38
Summer is ending in summer twenty twenty five.
Speaker: 1
01:09:40
Ai sad.
Speaker: 3
01:09:40
It’s coming in.
Speaker: 1
01:09:41
Way too soon.
Speaker: 3
01:09:42
Way too soon.
Speaker: 1
01:09:42
Believe it’s over.
Speaker: 0
01:09:44
That’s ridiculous. The only thing that I is giving me some hope is that ski season is is gonna be coming.
Speaker: 3
01:09:49
You know, when your kids like, Sai miss Sacks. You can relate to this. Actually, Jason, your kids are pretty old too. The summers go by so quick. And it’s like, you just start to see ai, they are Saks, what what are you ai? I am now 18 from my oldest leaving the nest.
Speaker: 1
01:10:03
I know.
Speaker: 3
01:10:03
It’s the it’s the craziest
Speaker: 1
01:10:05
Same here.
Speaker: 3
01:10:06
Oh, my god. It’s so oh, I can’t deal with it. My My son sits for his ACT in like three weeks. He’s getting his driver’s license in a week.
Speaker: 0
01:10:14
Are you sad about it? Are you feeling melancholy ai leaving the nest kind of thing? Or are you excited for that new chapter?
Speaker: 3
01:10:20
I feel like all of my kids deserve to have their own adventure. And so ai I tell my son is like, listen, you’re packing your bags, you’re building your little toolkit, you’re about to leave, and you’re just sana go on an adventure. And I’m so happy for him. But man, yeah, Ai got some insight
Speaker: 1
01:10:34
into ai right now.
Speaker: 3
01:10:36
Oh ai God. Oh my God.
Speaker: 0
01:10:37
All right, everybody. Another amazing episode. Ai. Love you, besties, and we’ll see you in Los Angeles. Love you, boys. All in Summit. Love you, guys. See you next week. We’ll let your winners ride. Rain Meh David Cyrus.
Speaker: 1
01:10:53
And it said, we open sourced it to the fans, and they’ve
Speaker: 3
01:10:56
just gone crazy with it.
Speaker: 0
01:10:57
Love you, sis. Sweet of cute wad. Besties are bad. That is my dog taking a noise in your driveway.
Speaker: 3
01:11:16
We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy because they’re all just useless. It’s like this, like, sexual tension that we just need to release somehow.
Speaker: 0
01:11:24
Let your feet be. Let your feet
Speaker: 1
01:11:27
be. Where
Speaker: 0
01:11:30
did you get mercy? Turkey’s arm back ai.