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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker Podcast Episode Description
(0:00) The Besties welcome Gavin Baker and recap ski week!
(5:38) Biggest Political Winner
(9:26) Biggest Political Loser
(17:34) Biggest Business Winner
(32:43) Biggest Business Loser
(46:54) Biggest Business Deal
(57:04) Most Contrarian Belief
(1:12:59) Best Performing Asset
(1:22:56) Worst Performing Asset
(1:30:19) Most Anticipated Trend
(1:38:59) Most Anticipated Media
(1:43:03) Super Predictions
(1:46:50) Bonus: Drones, UFOs, and more
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Referenced in the show:
Unitree G1（Contact us for the real price）
https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/state-of-crypto-report-2024
https://x.com/chamath/status/1873144394100187263
https://polymarket.com/event/will-openai-become-a-for-profit-business-before-april-2025
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker Podcast Episode Top Keywords
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker Podcast Episode Summary
In this episode of the All In Podcast, hosted by Jason Calacanis, the discussion revolves around predictions and insights for 2025, with a focus on technology, AI, and business trends. The episode features guest Gavin Baker from Atreides Capital, who shares his expertise in consumer and tech investments.
Key topics include the potential for significant advancements in AI, particularly from companies like Tesla, Google, and Gemini AI Research. Jason emphasizes the impressive capabilities of Gemini, urging listeners to explore its deep research functionalities. The conversation also touches on the concept of the “software industrial complex,” critiquing large enterprise software companies for their inefficiencies and predicting a shift towards more efficient AI-driven solutions.
The episode highlights several contrarian beliefs and predictions for 2025. Chamath Palihapitiya suggests that the enterprise value of OpenAI might decrease, while Freeberg raises concerns about the increased probability of nuclear weapon use. The hosts also discuss the potential for major business deals, particularly in AI and transportation, and the likelihood of mergers and acquisitions in the tech sector.
Actionable insights include the importance of exploring new AI tools like Gemini for their potential to revolutionize research and business processes. The episode also suggests that companies can achieve significant earnings growth by leveraging AI for internal efficiencies and outsourcing.
Recurring themes include the transformative impact of AI on various industries, the potential for geopolitical shifts, and the importance of strategic investments in technology. The overall message is one of cautious optimism, with a focus on the opportunities and challenges presented by rapid technological advancements.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker Podcast Episode Transcript (Unedited)
Speaker: 0
00:00
Welcome back to the All In Podcast, everybody. I am your host, Jason Calacanis. I’ll put in a bunch of plugs for the projects I’m working on throughout the show to annoy my cohosts and continue the grift. But it is 2025, and we are doing our bestie awards. It’s gonna be amazing today. We’ve got so much to do.
Speaker: 0
00:17
Today with us again for the saloni time, a truly amazing bestie, Gavin Baker ram Atreides Capital. Am I correct? Is it Atreides Capital?
Speaker: 1
00:26
Atreides Management. Atreides Management.
Speaker: 0
00:28
Oh, a tradies management? Okay. And,
Speaker: 2
00:31
Just call it House of Treaties.
Speaker: 0
00:33
Oh, gee. Nope. That’s not getting him in trouble. Ai. Gavin, welcome back to the program. Let us know, just briefly, what what does a tradies do?
Speaker: 1
00:42
Thanks for having me here, Jason, Chamath, and Dave. Treatise, we’re, we’re a crossover firm. We invest publicly and privately in consumer and tech, and we go from series a to meh cap.
Speaker: 0
00:55
Got it. Okay. So you are a capital allocator. You place bets on technology on the most important new companies in the world. We’ll get into that. And this is our prediction show. We did our bestie awards.
Speaker: 3
01:06
How big is your firm, Gavin?
Speaker: 1
01:09
This is
Speaker: 0
01:09
You just met the ai, FreeBird.
Speaker: 3
01:10
You don’t
Speaker: 0
01:11
just ask him how big his firm is.
Speaker: 3
01:12
The audience wants to know, is this guy a player?
Speaker: 1
01:14
Like, what’s the deal? Roughly $4,000,000,000. Okay.
Speaker: 0
01:18
Alright. So that’s about a half an inch bigger than Chamath. He’s really worried now. He’s
Speaker: 4
01:25
Not that
Speaker: 0
01:25
he’s a size queen on you. And let your winners ride. Rain man David’s eyes.
Speaker: 4
01:35
And instead, we open sourced it to the fans, and they’ve just gone crazy with it. Love you,
Speaker: 5
01:35
West Ice. We
Speaker: 0
01:43
We’re gonna do a really great prediction show today, and we’re gonna do some super predictions this year. Each bestie gets to make a super prediction or 2 during the show, and we’re gonna take those super predictions, Shamath, and we’re gonna put them on Poly Market. Yes. That’s right.
Speaker: 0
01:59
If you don’t know Poly Market, it’s a prediction market where people can place a wager, a bet, an investment in one or the other side and, there may ai
Speaker: 2
02:09
image good? It feels like it’s blurry.
Speaker: 0
02:11
It’s a little blurry. That’s the, avalanche coming. And so Ai guess is that the MAGA avalanche? What is this avalanche? Is that people streaming across the border? What’s the metaphor here, Trimup? Is that the huge orgasm, that you’re about to lay down in 2025 ai me?
Speaker: 2
02:27
No, my friend. No. No. This is a shout out to my friend, Ruben Ostlund, who’s the director of a bunch of really amazing movies, including the one behind me, Meh.
Speaker: 0
02:37
There you go. Alright. We did an amazing partnership with Poly Arya. Freeberg, you wanna detail the partnership in some way? You I think you helped work on it.
Speaker: 3
02:45
Well, we obviously have talked to Shane at Poly Market for some time, and we set up a a a deal with them where we could put our own markets up on the on the site. So we’re gonna talk about a couple of our predictions this year, and then Poly Market will post them up on on their site and people can can trade them, obviously, meh US.
Speaker: 3
03:03
And we’re really excited about it because it’ll allow us to kind of track how we’re doing and give us the opportunity on an ongoing basis to create arya. So there’ll be an all in section on Poly Market where you can kinda go in and see the all in market. It’s gonna be really cool.
Speaker: 0
03:16
Awesome. Fantastic. And so, we just got we’re all wrapping up our our, ski trip here. Nick, I understand there was some footage, some found footage ram the bestie skiing. Is that true? Oh, here we go. Look at this. Here I come down the mountain. Gavin, I want you to rate everybody skiing. Here I come.
Speaker: 1
03:36
Looking great.
Speaker: 0
03:37
There comes Amazing. Off. Looking good. And then here comes somebody. I think the technical term Joe Lonsdale does for that third person is a beep beep. Okay. Here we go. And look at this technique coming down. Look at Chamath. Chamath, you really advanced this last season. Look at him cutting those s turns, Gavin.
Speaker: 0
03:57
What do you think?
Speaker: 4
03:58
Scound. Sounds great.
Speaker: 2
03:58
Listen to me. Ai I made a very strategic decision to stop snowboarding so I
Speaker: 0
04:04
could learn to ski
Speaker: 2
04:05
with my kids. It is so hard to learn how to do something in your forties. No? I mean, if you’ve never done it, but I do appreciate what you and your brother did for me last season. I learned a couple things. So it’s been Yeah.
Speaker: 0
04:15
It’s my throat there with the Black Bomber.
Speaker: 2
04:17
My 3rd season. It was great.
Speaker: 0
04:19
I am absolutely amazed at the progress you’re making. Freebert, I’m amazed you made it onto the mountain. You you were out there a number of days. You’re getting it done.
Speaker: 3
04:28
I needed new boots. And I tore my MCL last saloni. So I’m in Got it. It got really tweaked when I went out there, but I’m good. It was great. I had a lot of fun. Ai mean, I just need 4 days. Yeah.
Speaker: 0
04:37
You just need 4 days. Okay. I finished my 16th day yesterday, but I took today off just to get prepared here. Yeah. I got 16th. I do the executive ram, Gavin. I go out for an hour and a half to 3 hours. Zip, zip, zip, 10 runs, and I’m done.
Speaker: 1
04:48
I only ski in the morning.
Speaker: 4
04:50
Yeah.
Speaker: 0
04:50
That’s the way to go.
Speaker: 2
04:51
You sai. Same. Same. And end at 12:15, have lunch, relax,
Speaker: 0
04:55
get a little work done.
Speaker: 1
04:56
Need a healthy healthy mix of apres ski and ski.
Speaker: 0
05:00
Gavin, how would you compare yourself to what you just witnessed in that video? Your skiing ability, where would you rank yourself? Clearly, it’s me, Chamath, Friberg in that ranking. Where would you live in the ranking?
Speaker: 1
05:12
Well, I would say I’d make 2 observations. 1st, like, I’m in the bottom percentile in terms of natural athleticism.
Speaker: 4
05:18
Okay.
Speaker: 1
05:18
But I do have many, many thousands of hours skiing.
Speaker: 0
05:21
Great.
Speaker: 1
05:23
K. And I would just leave Sai would just leave it at that. Yes. Wow.
Speaker: 0
05:27
Well, then we’ll be going out with you next year, new bestie. Alright. We gotta get to it. We’re gonna start off with politics, gentlemen. We gotta keep this moving because there’s so many predictions. We’re gonna do our 2025 prediction for biggest political winner. Now last year, well, ai, I think we we got it kinda wrong. Friedberg, you said independent third party in the US. Yeah.
Speaker: 0
05:49
We did see some of that with, you know, the breakout of Robert Kennedy, maybe. Chamath, you said independent centrist. We didn’t get there with that one. And I said dark horse presidential candidates. Maybe I get a quarter point credit there with Wait.
Speaker: 2
06:02
Hold on. What do you mean we didn’t get there? Independent centrist won the election for MAGA.
Speaker: 0
06:07
Independent centrists won the election? Really? That’s what you believe?
Speaker: 2
06:10
Yeah.
Speaker: 0
06:10
Okay. I didn’t think that it was the independents, but okay.
Speaker: 2
06:13
I think independent centrists swung the election for Biden in 2020. And then I think they swung the election for Trump in 2024.
Speaker: 0
06:22
Is that statistically correct, you think, Frederic? Do you you’re about that? Independent Centrus did the election? Or
Speaker: 3
06:28
Gavin, what do you think?
Speaker: 1
06:29
I think it’s right. Like, I think a lot of there arya lot of people, not just centrist, but a lot of people who had been lifelong Democratic voters who voted for Trump. So I do think Trump won the centrist. I mean, Trump Trump won everything, essentially.
Speaker: 0
06:46
Yeah. Okay. Shabbat, who’s your prediction for the biggest political winner of 2025?
Speaker: 2
06:50
My biggest political winner for 2025 are fiscal conservatives. I think that we are going to test a very important concept in 2025 ai I hope it works, which is that of austerity. And the reason why austerity has to work is that the only thing left after austerity is to cut entitlements.
Speaker: 2
07:13
And I think that in doing this, we’re going to figure out how much waste, fraud and abuse exists in the United States federal government. Ai think that that’s going to spill over to a lot of state elections. And I think that the fiscal conservatives that have been clamoring for a more restrained approach to spending will have their day in 2025.
Speaker: 0
07:40
Okay. Fiscal conservatism Chamath Friberg, what’s your prediction for the biggest political winner of 2025?
Speaker: 3
07:47
I also took a a class based approach. I chose young candidates. So Trump’s cabinet picks have an average age of 40 to 45 years old compared to the Biden cabinet where the average age is a little over 59, almost 60 years old. And I do think that this marks the beginning of a new trend in the kind of age range of political candidates shifting younger.
Speaker: 3
08:11
So I think that this is something we should expect as candidates start to emerge for the midterms by the end of 2025. We’ll start to see younger, new names start to pop up that deliver resonant messages and aren’t part of kind of the old guard of, you know, the aging political class.
Speaker: 3
08:28
So I think that’s a trend that’s kind of underway now.
Speaker: 0
08:30
Excellent. Young candidates. We got fiscal conservatives, young candidates. Gavin, what do you got for the 2025 prediction for biggest political there?
Speaker: 1
08:37
I would say Trump and centrism.
Speaker: 0
08:39
For my choice for 20 ai biggest political winner, I went with something similar to you, Friedberg. I said Meh X and the elder millennials. If you look at the notable Gen X appointments, you got Elon with Doge, you got Sachs obviously, Marco Rubio. My god. It just goes down.
Speaker: 0
08:56
And then if you look at the elder millennials, JD Vance, Vivek, Tulsi, just a lot of young people and this is gonna be absolutely fantastic, I think, because they’re gonna start thinking not just about themselves, as the boomers are doing with Social Security, taxes, real estate, all the different issues that they tend to pick for themselves.
Speaker: 0
09:15
They’re gonna start thinking about maybe their own kids and themselves. So, yeah, it’s obviously a sea change is underway. So there you have it, folks, for our predictions for political winner. Let’s go with political loser here. Prediction for political loser. We’ll start off with you, Gavin.
Speaker: 0
09:30
We’ll we’ll do this a little, round robin here. We’ll snake it around. Gavin, what do you think? Who’ll be the biggest political loser of 2025?
Speaker: 1
09:37
I think Putin. I think Putin is going to lose bigly. So if you were Xi Jinping, you know, Xi Jinping Russia is a client state of China at this point. And if you’re Xi Jinping, what is happening is now a disaster for you because Europe is starting to rearm and which is which will only accelerate this year.
Speaker: 1
09:59
That will allow America to take resources out of Europe and put them in, Japan and South Korea and all over the Pacific, and that makes it a lot harder for you to do what you most wanna do, which is reunify, China and Taiwan or invade Taiwan. Let’s let’s call it what it is. And I just think Xi is going to begin decoupling from Putin.
Speaker: 1
10:25
If you’re Trump, you wanna show that you’re independent, that you’re not, enthralled to Putin in any way. So I think Trump is gonna be a lot tougher on Putin than people think. And I think he’s gonna get a very, very, a deal that’s very, very bad for Russia and Ukraine. And, you know, you’ve lost half a 1000000 people.
Speaker: 1
10:49
And for what?
Speaker: 0
10:51
For what exactly? Yeah. And it’s a 1000 over a 1000 days into this. Nobody from the west had you know, in in in NATO or Meh. No no soldiers have lost their lives from our side. We’ve just given them weapons, and so it’s a humiliating defeat so far for Putin. I agree with you.
Speaker: 0
11:07
Freeburg, your prediction for the biggest political loser of 2025. Freeburg’s prediction.
Speaker: 3
11:12
Ai sana predict the pro war neocons who are gonna go head to head with the JD Vance and Elons and others of the world. And I think that they’re gonna lose. And I think that there’s gonna be this kind of big crack in the establishment of this this NeoCon movement that’s been, very pro conflict around the world, and we’ve heard it in the speeches and in the commentary from JD and others.
Speaker: 3
11:37
And I think this is gonna be the year that it’s all gonna kinda come to a head. I think they’re gonna end up on the losing side.
Speaker: 1
11:42
Can I Gavin? Can I take the other side just just a little bit? So I think you’re That’s why
Speaker: 0
11:47
you’re here.
Speaker: 1
11:47
Yeah. Yeah. I think it’s right in reality, but I think, you know, Trump said something very interesting about John Bolton. He sai, the guy was absolutely crazy, but it was awesome having him in the room when you were negotiating deals. Right. Because people looked at this guy looking angry, red in the face, so excited to hit the nuclear button, so excited to go to war, and you ended up with much better deals.
Speaker: 1
12:08
Right. So I think you’re gonna see probably a lot more bellicosity from the Trump administration than anyone speak. And that’s just to get a good deal for, you know, between Russia and Ukraine, and then it’s to get China to kind of decouple from Russia. So I think the, in reality, I think you’re right, David, but I think there will be a lot of rhetoric that is at odds with what you’re saying before
Speaker: 3
12:31
you end
Speaker: 1
12:31
up being right.
Speaker: 3
12:33
We already see it with Canada, with NATO, with Taiwan. There’s a lot you know, we’re gonna do this or this, the tariffs. Obviously, there’s just a lot of very aggressive posturing leading up to the negotiations that are hopefully gonna get the US good deals. We’ll see.
Speaker: 0
12:48
Shamath, you have a prediction for your 2025 biggest political loser. Predicate. It’s hard to do.
Speaker: 2
12:54
The biggest political loser of 2025 is going to be progressivism. So November of last year, right after the election, I flew to London and went up to Oxford and I spoke at the Oxford Union. And my speech was a full throated defense of MAGA, but it was mostly an explanation of MAGA.
Speaker: 2
13:16
And it was sort of the antidote to progressive instincts that had been riddling the Western G8 countries and was starting to basically come ungun. And when you look at what’s about to happen in 2025, in Canada, Justin Trudeau is going to lose massively to Pierre Poliyev. In Germany, AFD looks like they will win. In France, if there’s a deadlock and it goes into an election, more than likely Marine Le Pen is going to win.
Speaker: 2
13:50
And then in the UK where you see this unfolding child rape scandal where allegedly upwards of 100 of 1000 of young girls over the course of 20 plus years were being raped by organizations of Pakistani Muslim men who were then not prosecuted for fears of stoking Islamophobia, as it turns out, by the current prime minister Keir Starmer.
Speaker: 2
14:16
And if all of that comes to pass in the UK, I think you’re gonna see the labor government fall ai I think you’re gonna see Nigel Farage win. So what do all of these countries look like by the end of ai? It’s very much a repudiation of this class based identity politics. And I think that has enormous ripple effects all throughout the world.
Speaker: 2
14:40
And so I think the biggest political loser for 2025, I think, stands to be progressivism, quote unquote, what meh labeled progressivism.
Speaker: 0
14:48
I I took something very similar. I said the racist vocal minority of each one of these parties. And there’s a little bit of this on either side. You have DEI on one side and then you just have outright racism on the other ai. And it’s probably 5% of MAGA and 5% of the left.
Speaker: 0
15:05
And just to recap last year’s political predictions. For 2024, our predictions for political loser was, I said Netanyahu, Friberg, you said Ukraine, and Chamath, you said the Koch family, the GOP partners.
Speaker: 2
15:17
Nailed that one. I nailed that one.
Speaker: 0
15:19
Freyberg, any thoughts on last year’s or anything else?
Speaker: 2
15:23
On the Republican side more than
Speaker: 0
15:24
the Koch family, do you think? I mean, explain for the audience
Speaker: 2
15:28
who maybe aren’t as deep into it. Well, I think essentially 2024 was the end of the Republican party as we knew it. And I think what stands in its place is what I would call the MAGA reflection of a coalition of people that will be housed under the label of republicanism, which is to say that these folks aren’t necessarily republicans.
Speaker: 2
15:51
These folks are believers of the MAGA philosophy. They’re just using the republican vessel in order to run their candidates and get elected. And in that overturning of the status quo, what you had was this one family who was at the center for the last few decades of political machinery that essentially decided candidates, that it decided agenda, that it decided policy and that was the Coke family.
Speaker: 2
16:19
And they spent an enormous amount of money to get that, which they stood up frankly, literally the day after Citizens United happened in the Supreme Court. And I think that in that lens, those 1,000,000,000 of dollars of investment have essentially gone to 0 because I don’t think it means much of anything anymore.
Speaker: 2
16:38
And if you look at the new class of donors who will decide quote unquote Republican policy, it’s going to be the the Miriam Adelsons of the world, the Elon Musks of the world. And that’s very different than how I think the Kochs used to decide things.
Speaker: 0
16:54
Do you think there’s too much money in politics now, Gavin?
Speaker: 1
16:57
I think there’s too much money in politics now. It’s it’s a good question. You know, I might feel very, very differently if I didn’t agree so profoundly with with the largest donor in this political cycle.
Speaker: 0
17:17
Yeah.
Speaker: 1
17:18
I I would say the reality is is, like, the the the money as long as the money raised on each side is roughly equivalent, I don’t think it really matters. That would that would be my take. You just want some equivalents. That’s all.
Speaker: 0
17:34
Alright. Let’s do our 2025 predictions for biggest business winner. Friberg, why don’t you start us off? Biggest business winner for 2025. What’s your prediction?
Speaker: 3
17:43
So I feel like we’re at a really interesting inflection point that is gonna make 2025 the year of autonomous hardware or robotics. If 2024 was the year of kind of compute build out and the rollout of AI systems in software, I think 2025 will be the year of the robot. You know, there’s a company Ai we just placed an order today actually out of China called Unitree. Gavin, have you looked at this company?
Speaker: 1
18:14
Yeah. It’s pretty ai, actually.
Speaker: 3
18:17
It’s an incredible business, incredible product. So their g o two robot is $1600, has an API. Here it is. You can run a payload on it. It’s got ai on it. It’s got kind of intelligence guidance systems on it. This is the robot system that was used on some of those videos we looked at earlier this year where there were machine guns mounted to the back, and it was basically a new kind of field soldier.
Speaker: 3
18:39
It’s an autonomous field soldier. But, really, you can use it in scientific applications. We’re looking at using them in our, on our on our test farms where it can wander the farm and take images and report data back to us. And at such a low cost at, like, less than $3,000, You can do some incredible things with it.
Speaker: 3
18:56
So this business just raised a couple $100,000,000 last month ram mostly Chinese investors to Chinese company. And I think that there’s gonna be, you know, other similar type businesses. You know, ai of takes a long time for things to work, and then all of a sudden they happen faster than you could have ever imagined.
Speaker: 3
19:11
I think this is gonna be the year where we’re all gonna look at humanoid robots and autonomous systems and be like, oh my god. I can’t believe this is here. So this could be the year
Speaker: 0
19:20
that they roll off. It’s such a great, strong choice for the biggest winner. And, I think the quote you’re looking for is how did you go bankrupt slowly and then all at once? That’s how these technology changes. And, man, I would love to have one of these for the ranch to just run around and do the perimeter security.
Speaker: 3
19:34
Sorry. Nick, pull up the you guys gotta watch this if you haven’t seen it. Nick, find the video of the g o two with the wheels on it, managing terrain. Oh, yes. And and everyone thought this was a BS video that it was, like, CGI wasn’t real. It was AI generated. But, like, this thing is just incredible. Here it is.
Speaker: 3
19:50
This is a real video of this thing.
Speaker: 0
19:52
Yeah. And it could learn from an LLM too. Right? Like, a large language model could teach it how to do something. Yeah.
Speaker: 3
19:59
Gavin, is this real? Like, what’s
Speaker: 1
20:01
your sense of this? Real. Yeah. Yeah. I wanna get the g one, which is their humanoid robot.
Speaker: 3
20:06
Yeah. So pull up the humanoid. It’s really cool. Yeah. It’s a little more expensive.
Speaker: 1
20:11
Yeah. But Yeah.
Speaker: 0
20:12
I mean, $16,000 is the cost of a used Prius. Let’s be honest. That’s in spitting distance of being affordable for the Look
Speaker: 3
20:19
at this thing. $16. And this thing, you can, you know, you can basically command it to do things for you in your house, k, or in your factory or in your workplace.
Speaker: 0
20:29
Oh, come on. I knew you would do it. Oh, come on. Ai was gonna say maybe we could get a poker deal or maybe Beau, you ai. I wonder if this thing could deal
Speaker: 3
20:37
cards or ai.
Speaker: 4
20:38
Do you
Speaker: 3
20:38
guys remember that robot that was on stage for our all in holiday Yes. Spectacular 1 x? Sai my ram brother made an observation. He said, as soon as that robot came out, it’s like everyone just wanted to abuse it. He’s like, humans have this very interesting nature where, like, the robot emerges and all that humans wanna do is, like, hurt the robot.
Speaker: 3
20:58
It’s ai a very strange revelation of human behavior. Yeah. Like, it just it’s like, oh, here’s something I could dominate. Here’s something I can tell
Speaker: 0
21:06
it what to do. Threatened by it. We wanna make sure that we we’re at the top of the species here, and it doesn’t feel like it’s gonna be for much longer. I mean, these things will kick our ass pretty soon.
Speaker: 3
21:15
Meh. Anyway, these things are amazing. I think this is gonna be the year of the robots. That’s my prediction.
Speaker: 0
21:19
Year of the robots is your prediction. I love it. Gavin, what do you got?
Speaker: 1
21:22
Profoundly agree. I think year of the robots, inclusive of FSD. You know, I think FSD works today, and it’s sana, yeah, it’s it’s it’s gonna cross into mainstream adoption where I already notice. Particularly, if I’m taking an Uber late at night, I really, really prefer to have a Tesla.
Speaker: 1
21:42
Just sometimes you get an Uber driver who’s who’s tired, and I just feel a lot safer if they have the FSD running. And then, obviously, using it for yourself is amazing, but I think it’s gonna continue compounding at an accelerating rate. I think the in a lot of ways, what I’d say broadly is, I think for a while, it’s going to be big businesses are winners.
Speaker: 1
22:08
Big businesses that use AI thoughtfully. And the reason is is that with what is happening, what what o three showed us, OpenAI’s new model, a combination of reasoning and test time compute.
Speaker: 3
22:23
Like, I think you’re if
Speaker: 1
22:24
you’re a big business and you can pay a $1,000,000 to let an AI think for 6 weeks about the most important question for your business, that’s gonna be a profound advantage relative to small businesses that can’t afford that. And ai the way, we are the other like, inference compute is gonna be the the kind of derivative winner of that.
Speaker: 1
22:47
We’re gonna run out of GPUs, accelerators, compute in 2,025 ai same way we did in 23.
Speaker: 0
22:55
Okay. So you’re also long NVIDIA and chipmakers, GROC, etcetera, because we’re finding new uses for all that compute.
Speaker: 1
23:04
Absolutely.
Speaker: 0
23:05
Okay. Very good. Chamath, do you have a prediction for your biggest business winner of 2025, sir?
Speaker: 2
23:12
I think the biggest business winner of 2025 are going to be dollar denominated stable coins. Oh. I’ll make 2 points. In 2024, 2 critical things happened. The first is that stable coins essentially became uncoupled from crypto volatility and it started to be used for wholesale useful functions in running businesses.
Speaker: 2
23:44
And there’s an image here that starts to show that. So independent of crypto volatility, what you saw were stable coin usage just rising up into the right. That’s an incredibly important decoupling that happened in 2024. The second, and this data is still just trickling in, but it’s an incredible stat.
Speaker: 2
24:04
Stablecoin usage at the end of the Q2 of 2024 was about 1,100,000,000 transactions that summed to $8,500,000,000,000 of transaction vol volume. If you compare that to Visa over the same period, it was more than double Visa’s transaction volume. So I think what we have now is something that has fundamentally crossed a point of no return.
Speaker: 2
24:40
Similar to how last year I thought that the big trend was going to be Bitcoin in 2024. I would say that the big trend in ai is stable coin usage. I think we’re going to finally attack the duopoly of Visa and MasterCard. I think you’re going to see an innumerable number of use cases that sit and use stable coin rails.
Speaker: 2
25:06
I think when Donald Trump becomes president, I think you’re gonna see him go after incredibly high credit card transactions and costs. You’re already seeing ram in consumer credit anyways because of these high APRs. All of this stuff is going to come to a head in 2025, I think.
Speaker: 2
25:25
And I think stable coins could quadruple or quintuple by the end of 25. I think it’s just gonna be an enormous market.
Speaker: 0
25:33
Great choice. Should they be regulated, Chamath? We saw at some of these congressional hearings, Tether was kinda dragged for being the primary transfer and and monetary tool for terrorism, for getting around sanctions and for human trafficking, should it be regulated and how?
Speaker: 2
25:53
I I don’t think I’m qualified to say how it should, but I think the point is that there are these immutable logs that sit in between and on either side of all of these transactions. And so I think the knowledge is there and there are a whole bunch of third party services that add that intelligence layer.
Speaker: 2
26:10
I think the the thing to really question is if you just took 300 basis points of drag Yes. Out of the global economy
Speaker: 0
26:22
Massive gains.
Speaker: 2
26:23
How valuable would that be? And I think it would be valuable just in the United States alone to the tune of a $1,000,000,000,000 Sai the idea that you wouldn’t do it at this point is somewhat quizzical to me. So I just think that the economic justification for this now is just so profound.
Speaker: 0
26:41
Gavin, let me ask you a hard question there as well. Should the United States government give up the let’s face it, you know, they they have a bit of a stranglehold, they’ve got a bit of a monopoly on US dollars. These things are a competitor. And we were sitting here on this program for the last couple of years talking about the BRICS and them starting their own currency.
Speaker: 0
27:02
Aren’t these in some ways similar to that and they would take people off the USD standard? How do you look at that? Because that is the criticism that some people in power have put forward.
Speaker: 3
27:13
I do I do think that they might be very good for the
Speaker: 1
27:15
world, but I do think they would be very bad for America if they replaced if some constellation of stable coins became the new reserve currency, it is such a an advantage to be able to borrow in your own currency and to give that up lightly. That just that means you control you you you control the real size of your debt at all times. Oh, wow. We have a big big debt.
Speaker: 1
27:46
I mean, this is a little bit like what we just did. Let’s just have let’s just let inflation run hot, and, oh, wow. That debt’s a lot smaller than it was effectively. So I think it would be a big mistake.
Speaker: 0
27:57
Freeburg, you have any thoughts on it? We we’ve been talking about currency here, a whole bunch over the last couple of years. Any thoughts on stablecoins and and just the, monopoly we have on it?
Speaker: 3
28:08
I Sai don’t know enough about stable coins.
Speaker: 0
28:11
Well, that’ll be one of our big topics for the year and we should definitely invite Jeremy Allaire from USD on or USDC. USDC.
Speaker: 2
28:18
Jeremy Allaire. I mentioned, by the way, that I had this small little product that I exposed to the world, which is just our research and we sit it on top of Substack. Again, the tools aren’t very good and we use Stripe. And Jeremy reached out to me and he’s like, I’ll just rebuild all of your payment rails
Speaker: 4
28:42
on
Speaker: 2
28:42
using US dollar stable coins. And it’s a no brainer because I’m spending 100 of 1,000 of dollars in transaction costs that now I can just save and use to hire somebody else or just pay the team more. And so I think I
Speaker: 0
28:55
think Yeah, I do think you’re paying 10% to SubSack and the 3%. Yeah.
Speaker: 2
28:59
If it’s obvious for me, it’s obvious for everybody else.
Speaker: 0
29:02
Ai right. My biggest business winner prediction for 2025 is Tesla and Google. I think this is going to be the year of AI and robotics, obviously. But I am just absolutely amazed at the comeback that Google has made with Ai, and I’m absolutely in awe of what Elon did with Colossus.
Speaker: 0
29:19
If those of you don’t know, Jensen Huang, Michael Dell, they all obviously participated in building out XAI and they were shocked. They couldn’t believe that they stood up a 100000 GPUs in under 45 days, was it, Gavin?
Speaker: 4
29:34
Yeah.
Speaker: 0
29:35
Something in that neighborhood? Yeah. It was a tremendous effort and, you know,
Speaker: 3
29:39
I just think Tesla. Right? Is that Tesla?
Speaker: 0
29:41
Well, Elon, Tesla, Sai, and Google, that cohort who are investing heavily in AI, those 2, specifically, those 2 three names, I think, are gonna be the biggest winners next year. They’re gonna come out with some things that people didn’t anticipate. I don’t I don’t think people are anticipating what Google’s gonna come out with because Gemini ai research, I keep telling people this and I’m using the app, is so impressive.
Speaker: 0
30:04
Drop what you’re doing right now, pause the podcast, download Gemini, and just start playing with deep research on your desktop. Pay the $20 for it. It is mind blowing. It blows anything else in the market out of the water, period. Full stop. It is a step function higher. Alright. I’ll just leave it at that.
Speaker: 1
30:23
Jason, shouldn’t you, just going with the ai of the podcast, shouldn’t you explain what it is? What you
Speaker: 0
30:29
Sorry. Okay. So what it does is Good call. Good call. Yeah. If you wanted to create a model, let’s say, and I did this where I said, hey. Make me a model based upon what it would take to replace all the cars and trips in the United States with full self driving cars? What would that cost to do? And if you ask that to ChatChapiti or Brock or, you know, Claude, it’s gonna give you a decent answer.
Speaker: 0
30:52
What deep research does is it goes and it figures out what the sub components of each of those questions would be, and then it fires off multiple threads. And then it searches the web in real time, which Google is extremely good at. And then it summarizes it, gives citations, and it produces a report that looks like something that Gartner Group, McKinsey, Boston Consulting Group would have spent, I don’t know, 30 days on Gavin and a $1,000,000, a half $1,000,000.
Speaker: 0
31:16
It’s bonkers how good this is, but the amount of compute it takes is extraordinary. That’s why ChatCpT released something similar that’s $200 a month, the o one pro, I think they call it. And then this one is like $20 from Gemini. Anyway, given what Google has access to, YouTube, your G Ai, your Google Docs, etcetera, your Gmail, it’s gonna do things that you wouldn’t anticipate.
Speaker: 0
31:40
Like if you were asking this question, it might look in your Gmail for possibilities to answer those questions or YouTube videos of channels you subscribe to. So this is going to, I think, knock people’s socks off and solve problems that people didn’t know they had. Is that a pretty good explanation, Gavin?
Speaker: 1
31:57
Yeah. I think it’s great.
Speaker: 0
31:58
For last year, our predictions for business winner, Chamath said bootstrapped or and or profitable startups. I think that’s a really great pick and that came to pass. We’re seeing some of those go public and raise money at higher valuations or not go out of business. Freiburg, you said commodities businesses. I’m not sure how that did.
Speaker: 0
32:14
Do you know? Did you check-in
Speaker: 3
32:16
on that? Flat. Yeah. We didn’t have a lot of the Okay. Inflationary pressures that I think were underlying that thesis. So Got it. It ended up being, I’d say, a loser relative to other indices you could have bought this year.
Speaker: 0
32:29
I said training data owners ai Reddit, New York Times, Google, etcetera, Reddit stock up 2 to 24% in 2024, and they launched their own Reddit Answers. Sai
Speaker: 2
32:37
good call.
Speaker: 0
32:38
Yeah. I think I got that one. New York Ai speak is up as well and they, fired off that lawsuit with OpenAI. Alright. Now we’re gonna move on to the 2025 ai business loser predictions in 2024. Chamath said pro sports teams because they hit peak valuations. It’s looking like a pretty good prediction. Friberg, you said vertical SaaS companies because of AI disruption. That’s another one that seems like a great prediction. Yeah.
Speaker: 0
33:00
I said smartphone manufacturers. Apple stock was up 30% in 2024, but I think we’ve all seen that these, smartphones aren’t advancing and people are taking their ai. The sales of those are down. Services are up.
Speaker: 1
33:12
I would take the other side on pro sports teams. It feels like that market is about to be institutionalized, and funds are gonna start buying pro sports teams
Speaker: 0
33:22
Okay.
Speaker: 1
33:23
That ultimately and, ultimately, capital markets have way more resources than kind of the wealthy individuals who’ve done it for to date. So I just think it’s the amount of money that can go after pro sports teams is about to, you know, 10 x, a 100 x. No.
Speaker: 2
33:38
I think I think you’re totally right. The the reason I said that last year was it was pretty clear to me at the ai, and the NBA was the canary in the coal mine that there was a viewership problem in professional sports. And specifically in the NBA, the game has devolved into essentially rebounds and dunks or 3 pointers.
Speaker: 2
33:58
And the issue with that is that it becomes just meaningfully less interesting to watch. At the same time because of the fact that the TV deals are really what determines the discounted value of these sports franchises. The TV deal was so enormous that it creates no reliable rivalries anymore because people will hopscotch teams almost every year because the compensation that they can get is just so obscene ai honestly.
Speaker: 2
34:27
And I think what happens is sports will have a decent run until the next TV deals get done. And I think if you, for example, take pharma ads outside of TV, so like that pool shrinks. If you have less viewership and so you can sell the remaining ads less effectively because there’s just fewer of them and then there’s fewer buyers and it shrinks yet again, then the dollar pool that the television networks and the streamers are going to be willing to pay for sports will go down and the group that will be the most price sensitive are exactly who you said Gavin, meaning the non trophy buyer.
Speaker: 2
35:09
So like, when I bought into the warriors, I bought it purely as a trophy asset and I was ai insensitive. But I agree with you that now that you have the PE firms on the cap tables of these sports franchises, those folks are all DCFs, Those folks are all Excel models. I don’t think that they’re buying things for emotion. I don’t think they’ve grown up thinking Ai sana own this thing, not using institutional LP dollars.
Speaker: 2
35:31
So I just think that’s why, that’s why I said that in 24. So I just wanna
Speaker: 0
35:34
On behalf of Phil Hamuth and I, we appreciate you made that vanity investment for the number of times we got to sit in your towards ai seats.
Speaker: 4
35:41
Yeah. Because I never went to the games.
Speaker: 0
35:43
We made with NBA players.
Speaker: 4
35:44
That’s great.
Speaker: 2
35:44
I never went to the games.
Speaker: 0
35:45
I should have gone to more games. I went to your games and almost got thrown out of your seats. I got a red card one time.
Speaker: 2
35:50
It’s true.
Speaker: 0
35:51
Is it true? You did? Oh, you don’t call me? I got
Speaker: 4
35:54
a I got
Speaker: 3
35:54
a No. Ai got a call.
Speaker: 2
35:55
I got a call. I think it
Speaker: 0
35:56
was from the Warriors or
Speaker: 2
35:57
it’s from the NBA. Something to the effect of Chamath. This guy that was sitting in your seats was almost kicked out. And I said, excuse me? Because I knew that it was Jason’s game in fairness. And and he was like jawboning our own players.
Speaker: 0
36:10
I was getting into it with Bogue and with David Lee because I ai I told Ai Kerr, listen, you’re up 30 on my Knicks. Sit these guys down. This is Bush Lee. What if Steph Curry gets hurt out there? Like, and, you know, Boga told meh to shut up on Entre Iguodong.
Speaker: 2
36:25
Boga told him to basically go pound sana in a more
Speaker: 0
36:28
Basically did. That was the funniest thing ever, Gavin. This is what happens when you get
Speaker: 2
36:32
Boga’s one of our friends. He’s one of our good friends. So that’s ai. It’s so funny.
Speaker: 0
36:35
But if they can’t, they come over, Freeburg, and they tap you on the shoulder. I’m with my wife. She’s mortified. And the guy hands you a card. And the card says you’ve been warned one time and one time only about abusive, you know, behavior. If we have to warn you one more time, you will be escorted out. Ridiculous.
Speaker: 4
36:56
Ai I
Speaker: 0
36:56
look at the guy and I say, but and he goes, read the card. I read the card. I sai, he goes, gives me a thumbs up. That was it. I never
Speaker: 3
37:04
That was it.
Speaker: 0
37:05
You’re not supposed to Ben, 3 years later, I’m sitting in the same seats. I’m interacting with Draymond during the finals games, and then everybody’s hokey dokey with it. When you say interacting
Speaker: 4
37:14
What do you
Speaker: 3
37:14
mean when you say interacting?
Speaker: 2
37:15
Wait. Hold on. Gavin wanted to make a point about what I was saying.
Speaker: 0
37:17
No. I should
Speaker: 1
37:18
just just come back to Ai because I for sure ai private equity guys are d DCFs. The NBA has been terribly managed. I think even LeBron said they have a big problem. You know? And I would separate the n NBA is the worst managed. NFL is probably the best managed. But the one kind of counterpoint Sai would say on the TV rights is Google bought Sunday Ticket and are extremely happy with it.
Speaker: 1
37:40
Amazon and Netflix also bought you know, both bought NFL games and are really happy with them. And so I just think those 3 companies, it doesn’t really matter to them if pharma ads go away. In 18 months, you’re gonna be able to dynamically create an ad for each individual person and show it to them.
Speaker: 1
38:00
And if you’re a high value user with a, you know, that Google knows that you’re about to book a vacation, you know, they’ll dynamically generate, you know, whatever, you know, hotel destinations you want and show click here. So I just think sports, as long as they command the eyeballs that they do, and I for sure, if the NBA doesn’t fix it, the value of those franchises will start to decline.
Speaker: 1
38:24
But, just the fact that all of the biggest tech companies are so happy with the sports kind of rights that they bought, they’re gonna buy them all.
Speaker: 0
38:34
Every sport will get another one of these companies. Gavin, maybe maybe you’re closer to this, but why wouldn’t Apple, Amazon, or Google just back up the truck to the NBA and say, we’ll take the whole thing, And then anybody who’s got an iPhone gets the NBA for free, and then everybody else has to pay, and they figure it out on the back end.
Speaker: 0
38:51
They lose a, you know, 5,000,000,000, they make 2,000,000,000. Who cares?
Speaker: 4
38:55
It’s a
Speaker: 0
38:55
rounding error for Apple.
Speaker: 1
38:57
I agree. And they, you know, I mean, you they all all except for Apple, really. And Apple, they have, I think, an Meh deal, but they all kind of stuck their toe in the water. And I think they feel like, wow. The water’s warm. Let’s dive in. Okay. Yeah.
Speaker: 0
39:12
And the new deal’s an 11 year deal for the NBA, so these things don’t come up that often. But we’ll see over time. Maybe somebody will buy one of these media companies and inherit them. Okay. Biggest business loser for 2025. What’s your prediction, Gavin Baker?
Speaker: 1
39:27
Government service providers.
Speaker: 4
39:29
You do
Speaker: 1
39:29
not you do not wanna have the United States government at any level as over 35% of your revenue.
Speaker: 0
39:36
Good choice. Yes. Obviously, in the age of Doge, they might not be spending wildly and they might actually look at the bill. They might check the bill.
Speaker: 1
39:44
Crazy thought. Crazy thought.
Speaker: 0
39:45
Yeah. Crazy thought ai actually check the bill. You never know. Chamath, who do you predict will be the biggest business loser of 2025?
Speaker: 2
39:53
Well, this is a little bit precarious, but I don’t know what the percentage draw down from here will be, but I think when we look back the absolute dollar drawdown of the Meh 7 will be in the 1,000,000,000,000 of dollars.
Speaker: 4
40:17
Okay.
Speaker: 2
40:17
And the reason is not necessarily because of the underlying fundamentals of these companies, but I am a little bit worried and I tweeted this a few days ago about just the general concentration of the top 7, 8, 9, 10 companies in the indices. I think it’s approaching 40%. And I think that when you look at these historic concentrations, they’ve generally foreshadowed a big drawdown. Okay.
Speaker: 2
40:47
And unfortunately, I don’t see how you can sort of, you know, inoculate yourself from that risk. So independent of the quality of these companies, because I think these companies are exceptional businesses, I do think you’ve just had too much concentration. And I think it is a setup to re trade and give back. And in that, it could even be 10%.
Speaker: 2
41:11
But 10% in the Meh 8 will be a couple trillion bucks.
Speaker: 0
41:15
Right. And
Speaker: 2
41:16
so on a absolute dollar would be
Speaker: 0
41:17
a lot. Yeah. An absolute dollar is a lot. Okay. Freeberg, who do you predict? You predict Meh 7, government service ai for you, Gavin. Freeberg, who do you predict will be the biggest business loser of ai?
Speaker: 3
41:27
I’m I’m sort of on the same vein as Gavin. I went with the kind of old defense and aerospace providers, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon.
Speaker: 0
41:35
Defense one point out.
Speaker: 3
41:36
Driven by kinda China dominance, driven by US defense budgets that I think are gonna need to shift towards a more kind of tech oriented and ROI driven rationalization and pricing and speak. So the Palantir and Andurals, obviously, the world will benefit. And I also just think, like, there’s a lot of failure at scale with these businesses.
Speaker: 3
41:53
They’ve gotten too clunky and too bureaucratic as we’ve seen with Boeing from their space program, failure in 2024, to the challenges with their their airplane business. But I think that this government contracting business across the board is gonna be deeply challenged this year with all the new blood.
Speaker: 0
42:11
So the cost plus are gonna suffer is what you’re saying, and mandrels will thrive,
Speaker: 2
42:16
Would you guys add just a question. Would you guys add the traditional consulting companies then to the mix as well? Like, if you’re on sai good
Speaker: 3
42:24
That’s a good point too.
Speaker: 0
42:25
Yeah. That’s a great one. Yeah. We think what we talked about with Deepgram Ai
Speaker: 2
42:28
the One Pros, the Tatas, the HCLs, the Accentions.
Speaker: 3
42:31
Cognizance, HCL. Yeah.
Speaker: 0
42:33
The E
Speaker: 2
42:33
and Ai, all these folks are in real trouble if that if that also happens.
Speaker: 0
42:37
That’s right. Yeah. You the efficiency that they’ll gain will also be felt by their customers and their customers might not hire them.
Speaker: 3
42:45
When you got a bunch of software entrepreneurs that are now advising and informing the federal government on how to run their their operations, I’m pretty sure that some of these service providers are gonna get washed out. So it’s a good idea.
Speaker: 2
42:55
The thing to keep in mind is like cost plus is a fancier way of saying time and materials. And time and materials is a fancy way of saying human labor arbitrage. And I think that all of that stuff will get extremely scrutinized in 2025. Because if you are buying, you know, $800 waste baskets and, you know, $9,000, umbrella hangers because of time and materials and all of this other crazy stuff that’s in the system and all of that gets washed out, then a lot of these folks and their business models will will get put under severe stress.
Speaker: 0
43:30
The alignments, you know, you show me an incentive, I’ll show you the outcome. The alignment of cost plus is to just keep being inefficient and and waste. And and these defense contractors are taking 60, 70, 80% off the price of each piece of munitions or vehicle.
Speaker: 1
43:48
Yeah. Cost cost was terrible. No. Just cost cost sai terrible.
Speaker: 4
43:52
That’s ai.
Speaker: 0
43:53
For my biggest business loser prediction, I had to go through a lot of the, people I’ve, sai. I didn’t start a fight with over the past year. Commercial real estate came to mind because these leases are gonna keep coming up, and I think, like, they kicked the can down the road a little bit.
Speaker: 0
44:09
So I started there. Then I looked at MicroStrategies, and that made no sense to me that they were trading at 2, 3, 4 times the book value of their Bitcoin, and I think that’s not sustainable. I looked at Truth Social, which is, like, doing 4 or $5,000,000 in revenue and is valued at 7,000,000,000. That makes absolute no logical sense.
Speaker: 0
44:28
But I think the one that is the most overpriced of of all of this ai I think is going to see their peak valuation is OpenAI. I think the headwinds for OpenAI are being absolutely underappreciated. Like I said before in my previous one, my previous prediction, Google is kicking ass.
Speaker: 0
44:50
XAI is just getting started in building out so much big iron. Microsoft was basically on another podcast almost, like, laughing at OpenAI for selling them the source code and that they didn’t even need OpenAI anymore because they had it all. They don’t need them, and they own all the big iron. I think OpenAI’s valuation made no sense.
Speaker: 0
45:10
I don’t think they’re gonna be able to keep charging the prices they’re charging. And I think AWS, Apple, Google, XAI, this cohort are going to really take that $157,000,000,000 valuation and make it the peak valuation of the company. And I do I do think they there’s a non zero chance they could lose their process and these court cases of transferring a $157,000,000,000 in value from a nonprofit into a for profit.
Speaker: 0
45:43
I think that whole thing could blow up in some small spot.
Speaker: 3
45:46
Prediction is OpenAI will not be able to convert from nonprofit to for profit in ai.
Speaker: 0
45:50
I think that that’s a small piece of it, but that’s a really interesting super prediction. Insert Polymarket graphic here. Super prediction. Will Ai convert?
Speaker: 3
46:01
Is that something wrong? ai. Yeah. By the way, you know, they’re projecting, I think, in the the the leaked financials 12,000,000,000 of revenue next year at JACAL. So unlike a lot of the other things you were talking about, this is a real business with real revenue, real scale, real growth, real technology.
Speaker: 3
46:15
It’s it’s a little bit distinct from kinda being a meme stock or being a
Speaker: 0
46:20
Exactly. That’s why I’m picking it because I think it’s easy to pick a meme stock. It’s harder to pick a real company. But I do think that that revenue, which, you know, a lot of it is consumer and a lot of it is developers. The developers I know all wanna do open source. They don’t wanna have to be beholden to OpenAI and Sam Altman.
Speaker: 0
46:39
They would much rather and they’re already setting their queries across multiple different stacks and trying different ones. I don’t think there’s any loyalty to OpenAI or Gemini or any of these services. I think they’ll just go with eventually open source in many cases. So anyway, that’s my thought on OpenAI. 2025, biggest business deal. What do you got, Chamath? What’s your biggest business deal for 2025 prediction, Chamath? What do you got?
Speaker: 0
47:02
You said Starlink to go public last year.
Speaker: 2
47:04
That hasn’t happened yet. That one. Yeah. Totally worked on that one. I think that this is the year that we will see the collapse of the traditional auto OEMs. Oh. And I think that the the deal that happened at the end of 2024 with Honda and Nissan, I think is a bit of a signal to what the industry has to do, which is to go through a massive wave of consolidation.
Speaker: 2
47:30
I think that Tesla is just in an incredible position with the quality of their vehicles and the quality of their software and the quality of their autonomy with FSD. So I suspect that after a couple of more meaningful product releases, it’s just gonna trigger the realization by the public capital markets that these auto OEMs are uninvestable.
Speaker: 2
48:00
And I think the result of that will be a wave of auto mega mergers.
Speaker: 0
48:07
And for people who don’t know, Honda and Nissan signed an agreement to merge and Mitsubishi is involved because they’re part of, I think, Nissan’s alliance. This would obviously get rid of all of the redundancy.
Speaker: 2
48:19
But, yeah, I think this is gonna touch, like, the like, the European OEMs are in real trouble. You know? What does Volkswagen do? It’s not clear. What does Stellantis do? It’s not clear. These are all businesses that are effectively melting icebergs. And sai, typically melting iceberg businesses when they get put under pressure from smart investors like Gavin and and and his ilk, they’re forced to merge. Mhmm.
Speaker: 0
48:44
They sai they’re short these Gavin. Gavin, you got a spread trade? Are you short these names?
Speaker: 1
48:49
I I would rather not talk about specific positions. I would just say I agree 100% with Chamath. I think Alright. There
Speaker: 0
48:55
you go.
Speaker: 1
48:56
They’re gonna lose their Chinese business because they don’t
Speaker: 3
48:58
Yeah.
Speaker: 1
48:59
Make competitive products anymore. If there’s not massive protectionism and we’re seeing ai of that, they’ll be caught between Tesla and the Chinese OEMs. And I think the only way that this doesn’t have Chamath’s the only risk to Chamath’s prediction is just government intervention because they’re such big employers and, you know, often seen as national champions.
Speaker: 1
49:21
But absent really significant government support, they’re all in deep trouble.
Speaker: 0
49:29
Okay. Well done. Friberg, last year, you said there’d be some blockbuster deals for ai holders, licensing data for AI training, and Reddit did in fact sign 2 of us. So, a great prediction from you for last year on biggest business deal. What do you got this year? See if you can go 2 for 2.
Speaker: 3
49:45
Or is it just Reddit? I should probably look it up.
Speaker: 4
49:50
What do
Speaker: 0
49:50
you got?
Speaker: 3
49:50
I I’ll I’ll just follow on my year of the robot theme. I do think that there’s gonna be massive funding deals similar to what we saw this past year for compute build out. I think we’re gonna see massive funding deals for hardware based manufacturing build out in the United States.
Speaker: 3
50:06
And I think that those deals may take the form of kind of traditional equity from private markets, or they may have some component that includes government support to to kind of motivate and drive and accelerate, onshore manufacturing. We’re not gonna go in the US to making stuff that is ai last century.
Speaker: 3
50:26
I think we’re gonna need to move manufacturing to the next decade, next century of of production. I think that’s gonna mean making some of these autonomous and robotic type systems that are gonna become really critical for us, particularly with China doing this massive ramp up and build out for both drones and robots and autonomous vehicles.
Speaker: 3
50:47
So I think we’re gonna need to kind of onshore a lot of this. And so that’ll be a big amount of capital that’s gonna move. And so you’ll see a bunch of these big blockbuster deals for hardware build out in the US.
Speaker: 0
50:55
Gavin, what do you think should be the biggest business deal in 2025?
Speaker: 1
50:59
Ai think the biggest business deal is that they’re going to be deals. I think there’s sana you’re gonna see a tidal wave of m and a after 4 years of not being able to get anything done. I think there’s an enormous amount of pent up demand. So kind of point number 1. Point number 2, something will happen with Intel, and that will be big, and hopefully it’s good for America.
Speaker: 1
51:19
And then I do think you will see a lot of these Frontier AI labs that are independent be acquired. You know, I thought your points were well taken, Jason, about, you know, everything that, you know, Google is bringing to bear and Xa Ai owns their own compute. Then you guys can choose whichever one of these 3 you like, but the ultimate AI winner will be the one with the lowest cost of infrastructure cost, the lowest cost of compute.
Speaker: 1
51:47
And, definitionally, you can’t be the low cost provider if you’re renting your compute from someone else.
Speaker: 0
51:53
Because of markups.
Speaker: 1
51:55
Yeah. Because there’s a markup. If you’re buying your compute from Azure or AWS or Google, you were at a disadvantage relative to their internal services over time.
Speaker: 0
52:06
So the full stack wins. Great prediction for me. Last year, my prediction was that ByteDance would go public or TikTok would get divested or some version of this. We are about 18 days away from figuring out if the Supreme Court will do just that. My prediction for this year, I was looking at all the media companies, gentlemen. There were so many possibilities there.
Speaker: 0
52:28
Warner Brothers, we talked about Apple and Disney, you know, couple years ago. But I think the age of autonomy is here. And I think there is going to be some partnerships that will happen between Amazon, DoorDash, Uber, Tesla, Waymo, and that cohort. And I would not be surprised to see Tesla could buy Uber right now for about 10% of its market cap, and Waymo could spin out and partner with Uber.
Speaker: 0
52:55
Amazon could buy DoorDash fairly easily. And with the wrath of Khan being over, the wrath of Sana Khan being over, Gavin, it is possible that mega deals like these could go through. And if a couple of mega deals go through like this, whoever, you know, teams up here could win autonomy, delivery, food delivery, and e commerce.
Speaker: 0
53:18
This is a ginormous speak. And I think listen, I don’t I haven’t spoken to, obviously ai friend about it. But Tesla buying DoorDash and Uber ram Amazon buying DoorDash and Uber could be the greatest service ever created if you’re wanted to build a super app.
Speaker: 1
53:34
The only thing I would add, and I think dovetails with what you said and and, Friedberg’s kind of year of the robot, is autonomous drones. There’s a company called Zipline, which my firm is an investor
Speaker: 0
53:45
in. Fantastic.
Speaker: 1
53:47
Yeah. But autonomous drones, they really are the best way to deliver almost anything to suburban America. And then I think over time, it will be sorted out so that they could deliver in cities as well. So I just think that that might be a little bit of a wild card for some of these delivery services.
Speaker: 0
54:07
Well, and Amazon in I believe it’s Texas is actually doing these now. They’ve got 60,000 SKUs is my understanding already being delivered, and they just drop it in your backyard, and it’s there in 45 minutes.
Speaker: 3
54:19
Well, we talked about this, like, 2 weeks ago. I, you know, Meituan in Ai got this, and they they food have food delivery happening with these drones. By the way, just kind of dovetailing off of this, I think the other big deal potential in 2025, just to be very specific, is a deal with Waymo.
Speaker: 3
54:34
You know, Waymo launched NSF in August 2023 in kind of an open market way. Uber and Lyft were 66 34% market share at the time. And in 15 months, in November of 2024, Waymo is now at 22% market share of rides in SF, which is the same as Lyft, and Uber is now down to 55. So Waymo ate into both Uber and Lyft’s market share by on the order of 12 points, in just 15 months.
Speaker: 3
55:00
And now they’re launching in LA, in Austin, all over the country. They’re already in Phoenix. So I think you could see a massive and by the way, you know, they also just moved the the hardware platform over to a new draw new device that’s supposedly gonna bring the capex significantly down for new launches.
Speaker: 3
55:15
So you’ll see much improved ROIC metrics, which means that there’s a much ai of more efficient way to use capital to scale. So the system works. It is scaling. They are opening up in new markets. You could see something happen with Waymo this year that could either be something like a massive financing, an IPO, or a merger or acquisition with one of the big ai sharing companies.
Speaker: 3
55:35
I don’t know if that makes as much strategic sense as I’ve thought about it a little bit, but I do think you could see a big deal with Waymo. This company is if you guys have not been in a Waymo, I think we all talked about this, but it’s an incredible experience. And everyone I know of every age group that has been for a ride in Waymo comes out of it saying that is the future.
Speaker: 3
55:52
This is gonna absolutely dominate how I’m gonna get around Clearly,
Speaker: 0
55:55
it’s certainly the urban area. Most people sai it’s slow right now and monotonous and they don’t like it, but, you know, because it does take weird routes, but that’ll be fixed over time, obviously.
Speaker: 3
56:04
Totally.
Speaker: 0
56:04
And, just in case anybody thinks I’m talking my book here, I have exposure to all these almost all these companies in a in a significant way because I believe in the entire space. 1 a half percent of rides in the US, and globally it’s less than 1%, are done by ride sharing.
Speaker: 0
56:19
The TAM is gonna go to 20% in a very short period of time, and it’s going to be across the board. There’s gonna be a lot of winners here. And to my favorite, Uber, obviously, They have deals with 8 people and it’s a global market. BYD produces cars for half the price of any other car manufacturer, and they have full self ai, and it’s pretty darn good from what I understand.
Speaker: 0
56:40
So this is gonna be a global competition. And that means if you wanna win that global competition, something like Uber and DoorDash, Waymo, Amazon, BYD, you’re gonna see some interesting partnerships happen very quickly, I believe, because there’s so much at stake. Alright. Any final thoughts on biggest business deals? I think I maybe have a good one here. Consolidation in the transportation space. Okay. Moving on to 2025, most contrarian belief.
Speaker: 0
57:07
Last year, enterprise value of OpenAI goes down from Chamath. It roughly doubled, but I just picked it as my prediction. So I think we’re sim we’re simpatico on, what we think long term. Freeberg, you said increased probability of a nuclear weapon being used for the first time since World War 2. Thank the lord that that didn’t happen.
Speaker: 0
57:27
Again, this is contrarian beliefs. People are going out there.
Speaker: 3
57:29
I didn’t predict it was gonna happen. I just said the probability went up. It was a it’s a tough it’s a tough thing to call.
Speaker: 0
57:34
Obviously, this is most contrarian belief. I think it’s fine. Doctor Doom ai again. It’s all good. I picked Apple would become the player in Ai, and they did launch Apple Intelligence, but it sucks. I mean, it sucks. It’s terrible. I just bought the Google Pixel Fold ai, and the Gemini works perfectly. It does everything that Siri is supposed to do.
Speaker: 0
57:57
If you sai, please play this song, if you say, please download this app, if you sai, add this to my calendar, it does it and it does it in 1 fifth or tenth the amount of time that Apple takes, and Apple gets it wrong every time. It’s a piece of garbage. It’s a disgrace. Disgraciat, Apple.
Speaker: 1
58:18
Apple intelligence is even worse than Ai, which is saying something.
Speaker: 2
58:22
Jason, would you like to announce you you bought the domain?
Speaker: 0
58:27
Discratziod.com. I own it. I’m not selling it. Right now, it it redirects to Jake Paul. Gavin. Gavin.
Speaker: 4
58:35
Do you have any It
Speaker: 3
58:35
redirects to Jake Paul.
Speaker: 2
58:36
What word he’s even saying when he says that
Speaker: 0
58:38
discretzied. Discretzied.
Speaker: 4
58:40
Discretzied. It’s
Speaker: 0
58:42
discretzied is what people used to say in Brooklyn for somebody who is disgraceful. It is a Italian American slang.
Speaker: 2
58:51
How do you spell it?
Speaker: 0
58:52
Oh, I gotta I don’t really Do
Speaker: 2
58:54
you even know you own the domain? You don’t even know.
Speaker: 3
58:57
D I s g r a z I a d, Disgrasiad.
Speaker: 0
59:02
Yes. And if you type in descraziad, it goes to Jake Paul. I bought it when I was watching the Tyson fight. It was so disgraceful. I was saying to my brother, Josh, the black bomber, this is this this and he just said, Desgraziad. And I just said, I wonder if that’s available as a domain. I’m redirecting Desgraziad right now, Tim Cook, to Apple Intelligence, the website.
Speaker: 4
59:23
Do do
Speaker: 1
59:24
you guys think Tyson through that fight that it was part of the deal? 1000%.
Speaker: 0
59:29
Yes. Ai so agree. Percent.
Speaker: 1
59:30
Ai would love I think somebody said Saudi Arabia was offering to host a remake, or or whatever. Remake. A redo a rematch. A rematch of the fight where the winner would make 50,000,000, and then we’ll see what’s what.
Speaker: 0
59:42
And the loser gets 0. Yes. Then
Speaker: 1
59:44
the loser gets 0.
Speaker: 0
59:45
This is a good use of the kingdom’s money. The people wanna know we will all fly out there and do an all in episode from that fight.
Speaker: 2
59:53
This did you see this thing where is it Logan Paul is fighting Conor McGregor in India and Conor McGregor is gonna get $250,000,000 Shah? Yeah. It’s like a
Speaker: 0
01:00:06
whole Is it boxing or is
Speaker: 2
01:00:07
it MMA? I I think it’s boxing and it’s meant to sort of ai bring a bunch of tourists into India to show them the country, but it’s a quarter of a $1,000,000,000 to Conor McGregor.
Speaker: 4
01:00:17
How do
Speaker: 0
01:00:18
we get in on this grift? Freeberg versus Baker, Polly Happettia versus Kalakanus.
Speaker: 3
01:00:24
Oh my gosh.
Speaker: 0
01:00:25
We need to get in our own celebrity boxing. Who would we do? Come on. Keep going.
Speaker: 3
01:00:28
I gotta drive home. Let’s go. Come on.
Speaker: 0
01:00:30
Too much fun this episode. Chamath, what’s your most contrarian belief prediction for 2025? We’re going out on a limb here. This is going out on a limb folks. Don’t judge us. The the spicier the take, the better here. This is where you can go freestyle.
Speaker: 2
01:00:44
I think that you’re going to see a banking crisis in one of the major ai banks.
Speaker: 0
01:00:50
A banking ai. Wow. There is a, it’s a small chance it happens, but that’s a contrarian belief. Okay.
Speaker: 1
01:00:56
Why, Ajamath? Why?
Speaker: 0
01:00:58
Fox 1?
Speaker: 2
01:00:59
Well, I think if I had to kind of build the, the case for this, it would be along the following lines. If you add it up, the total indebtedness of Speak America, which is US government debt plus corporates, plus mortgage debt, and you actually sensitize it to rates that are around, call it 5%, What you quickly realize is on a dollar basis that because the amount of debt that we have has just massively exploded, that 5% rates today on 70 odd $1,000,000,000,000 is actually equivalent to 10% rates ai or 30 years ago because we only had a fraction of that debt on a dollar basis.
Speaker: 2
01:01:58
And so the pain that you feel at 5 or 6% can very quickly ripple through the economy the way that it did when rates 25 or 30 years ago were 10%. And so I think that when people look at rates, they forget the actual total dollar impact because when somebody or collectively, when we have to come up with 3 or $4,000,000,000,000 how do you do that?
Speaker: 2
01:02:23
And so I think that there is a non trivial risk. I think it’s small. This is why it’s contrarian, but I think it’s sai, it’s a risk where if you have a mark to market problem, if you have a credit default problem amongst the corporates or amongst enough individual consumers, what I think that happens more than anything else is that it triggers a reserve issue.
Speaker: 2
01:02:50
And I think that the reserve issue in one of these mainline banks, I have 2 that I think are more obvious than others, but I don’t wanna name them.
Speaker: 0
01:03:01
Okay. Fair enough. I love this contrarian take. This is great.
Speaker: 2
01:03:05
I think that there’s a small but reasonable chance that that happens.
Speaker: 0
01:03:09
I love it. It’s a great, great contrarian take. Small chance, but big impact. Gavin, what do you got?
Speaker: 1
01:03:14
Well, first, we use Ai deep research to, just ask it to look at the total, you know, Sai Americana debt outstanding, apply the current market interest rate to it, and then look at that, you know, interest expense relative to GDP and generate that chart over ai, that would be a cool chart. That would be interesting. I don’t I I don’t I don’t disagree with Chamath.
Speaker: 1
01:03:40
You know, any anything is possible, and, you know, there there could for sure be be a problem at a big bank. I don’t know that I would say it’s likely, but anything is possible. My most contrary belief so I think that America over the next at some point over the next 4 years will print at least 1 year of greater than 5% GDP growth, real GDP growth.
Speaker: 1
01:04:07
I think productivity is gonna go vertical because of AI and deregulation,
Speaker: 4
01:04:13
and
Speaker: 1
01:04:13
I think there could be a world where this is the late nineties. And it doesn’t sound like a big difference, you know, 5 or 6% versus 2 or 3%, but it is a massive difference. You know, at 5 or 6%, you know, the economy is doubling. You’ll call it every 12 years roughly. 1st 24 years at 3%.
Speaker: 1
01:04:35
I mean, it’s just it’s a massive difference in terms of kind of the wealth of the country and individual Americans. As far as a specific prediction for 25, because I don’t know when when that will ai. I think you will see the Frontier Labs stop releasing their leading edge models to prevent knowledge distillation and their IP effectively being stolen.
Speaker: 1
01:04:55
You know, deep speak from China, it was really impressive, but it thinks it’s GPT 4. You know?
Speaker: 2
01:05:01
Yeah.
Speaker: 1
01:05:02
So I just think you will you’ll see the labs keep their best models in house, distill them, and put small small models out over time.
Speaker: 0
01:05:12
Fair break, do you have a contrarian belief? And I did put into Gemini advanced 1.5 pro with deep research the question which banks have the great biggest chance of being insolvent or having a financial collapse or crisis. So it’s doing its research right now. It’ll be done in about 10 minutes, I think, which gives you an idea for how much research it does. It’s nuts.
Speaker: 0
01:05:29
Ai, what do you got?
Speaker: 3
01:05:31
I think that the the party line is that socialism was defeated in this election cycle and that there was a resounding kind of vote from the American populace against socialism. And I actually think meh my contrarian belief is that we’ll see a rise, a dramatic rise in socialist movements in 2025 in the United States.
Speaker: 0
01:05:54
Okay.
Speaker: 3
01:05:54
And I think that we arya gonna see, as Gavin pointed out, an acceleration of progress. We’re gonna see an unleashing of, economic growth because of deregulation and AI. But I do think that some markets we’ve also talked about the the the the downfall of US auto manufacturing and some other industries.
Speaker: 3
01:06:12
There’s gonna be a real significant shift in 2025. Some industries and some companies are gonna be huge winners, and some companies are gonna be huge losers. There’s gonna be some parts of the economy that are gonna be big winners and some parts of the economy that are gonna be big losers.
Speaker: 3
01:06:26
When you have this sort of a change this fast, there are often large contingents of people that are left behind. And when that happens, I do think that the socialist policies and the socialist movements gain steam. When, Peron came to power in Argentina in the mid 19 forties, that country was experiencing 8% GDP growth to Gavin’s point about accelerating growth.
Speaker: 3
01:06:49
Growth does not mean that it benefits everyone equally. And I think that some folks will see people go from being billionaires to 100 billionaires to the world’s 1st trillionaire, and it will also start to fuel this rise. So I think that we will see an increase in the breadth and depth of socialist movements in the United States.
Speaker: 3
01:07:05
Ai the way, particularly with Doge cutting government funding to programs that benefit individuals, employment being cut in in the federal government and through federal contractors, There’s just a lot of rapid change that’s about to kind of really upset a lot of people.
Speaker: 1
01:07:20
I totally agree. I think AI you know, people are fond of saying that a we’re in a world of AGI or Sai. Money will be meaningless. But for a short period of time, money will matter more than it’s ever mattered before because the amount of money you can spend on AI, on test time compute, is going to give you a massive advantage whether you’re a company or an individual.
Speaker: 1
01:07:45
So I just think AI is gonna really amplify inequality for some period of time. Yeah. I hope I’m wrong. Like, I hope, you know, AI leads to, you know, all sorts of, you know, opportunities being created for sana
Speaker: 0
01:07:58
There’s a lot of there’s
Speaker: 3
01:08:00
sana gonna be a lot of employment and income disruption in 2025, and it’s gonna fuel socialist movements. And I think that this is gonna be a more difficult year. Everyone thinks it’s kind of rosy red because we’re all working in the tech industry in Silicon Valley, but the reality on the ground for most Americans could be a lot harsher than any of us anticipate, and that could make for a very difficult political environment and social environment.
Speaker: 2
01:08:23
This is
Speaker: 0
01:08:23
a great contrarian prediction, Freeberg. I would build on it that I don’t think this is just gonna hit blue collar. I am seeing in the venture industry and in entrepreneurs all over the place, people who are super qualified, who had 6 figure salaries even to mid 6 figure salaries not be able to find work or not find work at previous compensation levels.
Speaker: 0
01:08:43
Why? Because people are doing more with less. It’s much better to invest and do deep research and AI and automate stuff or deprecate stuff or delegate stuff to other regions than to hire Americans in some cases. And that philosophy that’s happening isn’t just gonna hit truck drivers. It’s gonna hit developers, potentially, designers, writers.
Speaker: 2
01:09:06
So what’s the
Speaker: 1
01:09:07
contraction managers?
Speaker: 2
01:09:08
What you guys are saying? What’s the contrarian part?
Speaker: 1
01:09:11
Socialism. Socialism is gonna rise.
Speaker: 0
01:09:13
Sai.
Speaker: 4
01:09:15
I think
Speaker: 1
01:09:15
it’s pretty interesting.
Speaker: 3
01:09:16
Because I
Speaker: 0
01:09:17
think You don’t think it’s contrarian? You think it’s obvious?
Speaker: 3
01:09:19
I think the party line has been that socialism was getting knocked back this year with this election cycle, and it was a mandate against socialism and some of the socialist policies that were being put forth. And I think that the contrarian view is that we’re actually got this really wrong, and socialism is gonna be on a big rise.
Speaker: 1
01:09:37
But just to build on what you said earlier, ai, woke wokeism and progressivism will decouple from socialism. I think wokeism and progressivism, you know, will be on a declining trend, but socialism in terms of the government
Speaker: 2
01:09:52
Ai, policy is a more role.
Speaker: 1
01:09:54
Yeah. Ex yeah. I think that’s an interesting idea.
Speaker: 0
01:09:57
Universal why don’t we have universal health care? Why don’t we have pre k or, you know, in every state? And and, you know, these kind of things, I think Americans are right to ask those questions. Now other behaviors are obviously abhorrent, but you do have the right to ask why we can’t figure this out and why our government has failed us in something as basic as, you know, providing after school programs or universal health care or universal ai.
Speaker: 0
01:10:21
These things are easy to do. And when you see everybody getting rich and the polarization of wealth, I can understand people saying why don’t we have these basic things when other countries have them? It’s a reasonable bond.
Speaker: 3
01:10:31
You’re making the assumptive statement that these things are easy to do, which was what was said about education. It’s ai, let’s give everyone access to college education with the, the federal student loan programs. And what happened was when we introduced those programs, those schools started to charge more, and the tuition went up every year.
Speaker: 3
01:10:48
And, eventually, the cost of education inflated away from the benefit you were getting from it. And this has happened universally in health care. It has happened in housing. It has happened in education. It has happened in every market where the United States where the where the government has stepped in to provide capital to support that arya.
Speaker: 3
01:11:05
It’s that the market basically no longer operates in a free way.
Speaker: 0
01:11:08
I appreciate the challenge to it, and I’ll explain to you why I believe it’s easy. If you just put this down to the states and you make it more competitive, I think you solve the problem. If you introduce school vouchers and you create competition, if you take universal health care and maybe you run some experiments where different states get that money from the federal government and let them run 50 different experiments, I think we could actually solve some of these problems.
Speaker: 0
01:11:29
But you’re correct. Anything that the federal government does, it eventually becomes corrupt and inefficient. My most contrarian belief was OpenAI loses its lead, loses its nonprofit to for profit transition and becomes the number 4 player in AI. The total collapse of OpenAI is my most contrarian prediction for 20 5.
Speaker: 3
01:11:50
That’s a good one. The total collapse
Speaker: 2
01:11:52
of open air. Doubling doubling and tripling down.
Speaker: 0
01:11:55
Hey, man. I’m trying to make this spicy. It’s a spicy category. Let’s do it.
Speaker: 2
01:11:58
Yeah. I got it.
Speaker: 0
01:11:59
Jeff Bezos could still be. Jeff Bezos could
Speaker: 3
01:12:01
still run for president, J.
Speaker: 0
01:12:02
Cal. Maybe he’s great. I don’t know. Everybody who all his friends left the company, maybe he’s great. Maybe he’s a stand up guy. I mean, everybody quit, but maybe he’s
Speaker: 3
01:12:12
Gavin, are you are you familiar with J. Cal’s prediction that Jeff Bezos is gonna run for president? It was a that was my
Speaker: 4
01:12:17
favorite one.
Speaker: 0
01:12:17
Predicting Ai wanted him to. I wanted him to. And he bought Washington Post sana he quit the Amazon job and he bought a house in Washington DC and he went down to Mar a Lago. Don’t be surprised if Bezos, after he gets through his, midlife crisis and going to Coachella and partying and having a great time, which he deserves, if he comes back and says, you know what?
Speaker: 0
01:12:38
I wanna serve my country. I still stand by the fact that he won’t post?
Speaker: 4
01:12:41
Or do
Speaker: 3
01:12:42
you think he’s gonna hold on to it?
Speaker: 0
01:12:43
Well, let’s stick with that one because
Speaker: 3
01:12:45
that’s what my prediction Jeff Bezos will sell the Washington post in 2025. That’s a good polymarket.
Speaker: 0
01:12:50
Yeah. Sell it to Kara Swisher. Sell it to Kara Swisher. Yeah. They’ll run it right into the ground. They’ll double down. Okay. Best performing asset. Everybody loves this one. Best performing asset. Hey. We can we you can put a price on this. Best performing asset. Last year, Chamath did a spread trade.
Speaker: 0
01:13:08
He was long public tech stocks, short private, late stage tech stock index. NASDAQ top 100 meh stock, ETF was up 10% in 2024. Freeberg, you went with your uranium ETF, not Uranus, uranium ETF, and your a u r a was down 1% in 2024. I know. Ai. You know what?
Speaker: 3
01:13:29
I Ai looked at the components of that ETF last last week when we were preparing for this.
Speaker: 4
01:13:33
Mhmm.
Speaker: 3
01:13:33
It has absolute junk in it. Like, it it was not the right the right right way to kinda trade uranium. But, anyway, that was my my outcome for the year.
Speaker: 0
01:13:45
I went with the on demand economy with Uber, Airbnb, and DoorDash. Uber was up 30%, but now it’s only up 3% with the robo taxi headwind. Airbnb is basically flat, and DoorDash up big. 74%. Shout out to Stanley Tang. Great job to the team over there. So Chamath, get your flowers there.
Speaker: 0
01:14:02
Let’s do our best performing asset. Let’s let, our guests go first. Gavin, what will be the best performing asset of 2025?
Speaker: 1
01:14:09
I think the companies that make high bandwidth meh, going back to we’re gonna we’re gonna run out of compute. It’s it’s it’s actually a pretty shocking stat. High bin with memory is a bigger part of NVIDIA’s cogs on GPUs than Ai Sai is. And today, there’s 2 companies that can make it, ai Hynix and Micron.
Speaker: 1
01:14:32
We’ll see if Samsung gets their act together. But HBM memory, it’s in NVIDIA GPUs, AMD GPUs, Amazon Trainiums, and particularly in a world of test time compute and inference being so important. High bin with memory is arguably more important than it ever was, and it’s been, it’s been sold out for the last 2 years.
Speaker: 1
01:14:58
So ai bid with memory would be my pick.
Speaker: 0
01:15:01
Okay.
Speaker: 2
01:15:02
Good pick?
Speaker: 0
01:15:03
Great pick. In fact, what do you got, Jamoth?
Speaker: 2
01:15:05
So let me preface this by saying that this is a pick that ai times out of a 100 goes to absolute 0.
Speaker: 0
01:15:17
Okay.
Speaker: 2
01:15:20
And 6 out of the remaining 8 ai, you make 10 extra money and then the final two times you make anywhere between 100 to a 1000 extra money.
Speaker: 0
01:15:32
Okay. Sounds like a good one.
Speaker: 2
01:15:34
Okay. So this is a loser trade, okay? But I would be long CDS. So what am I buying? I am buying insurance. I’m buying insurance using credit default swaps. I’m buying what’s called protection that there is no default event in 2025. Again, I’m not going to tell you which companies or what maturities, but just the general idea for me is I would like a little bit of an insurance policy in 2025 so that the men and the women that we have voted in have the chance to do their work in peace.
Speaker: 2
01:16:16
I think that there is a small chance of some volatility next year. I hope it doesn’t happen. I hope that this trade, like I said, 92 times out of a 100 loses money. I hope it loses money. But if it hits, it will be the best performing asset of 2025. It will be the equivalent of Ackman buying CDS ai at the beginning of the COVID crisis.
Speaker: 0
01:16:42
How does one buy those?
Speaker: 2
01:16:44
You have to have a NISDA, you talk to the big investment banks and they’ll price it out for you. But again, and I just wanna be clear, this is not something I think will happen, it’s not something I want to happen, but I do think that if you look back in terms of just the tonnage of dollars you can make and the massive risk asymmetry that it presents to you, when you look at the concentration of the S and P, when you look at just the total gross amount of debt that we have, when you look at rates spiking, all of these things sai having a little insurance may not be a bad thing.
Speaker: 2
01:17:18
So I hope I can continue to
Speaker: 0
01:17:21
Gavin, you’re nodding? You wanna answer?
Speaker: 4
01:17:23
Ai was
Speaker: 1
01:17:23
just I was just thinking, I mean, if you’re if, you know, Chamath’s prediction of a bank failure is true, you absolutely wanna own CDS. You know, I mean, you’ll you’ll forget a a 100 x. You’ll a 1000 x, 10000 x.
Speaker: 0
01:17:36
What do you have, Friberg?
Speaker: 3
01:17:39
So I went with Chinese tech stocks, Ai tech ETFs.
Speaker: 0
01:17:47
Wow.
Speaker: 3
01:17:47
I think that the market everyone’s kind of dumped Chinese tech stocks over the last couple of years. Everyone’s taken this isolationary stance on positioning portfolios and saying, hey. We can’t do business with China. It’s over. But I do think that the Trump administration, particularly with their recent request on TikTok being the ban on TikTok being kind of halted, they’re trying to line up what I would call kind of, like, the great deal with China.
Speaker: 3
01:18:12
So I don’t know anything about what they’re actually trying to do. But I think that Trump and leadership in the US government wanna kinda open up the Chinese market to American companies in order to give Chinese companies access to the American market. And I think that they’re gonna get a deal done given the position with China. I think that they’re very likely to kinda get a deal done. That’s one driver.
Speaker: 3
01:18:33
I think there’s 3 drivers. The second driver is shah, obviously, the cost of build out of electricity production in China is unfathomable. They recently approved a $137,000,000,000 hydroelectric dam facility, which is gonna add another, I think, couple 100 gigawatts of electricity production in that country, not to mention all the nuclear build out we’ve talked about in the past.
Speaker: 3
01:18:53
So the cost per kilowatt hour is already lower. The amount of electricity available is going up. And then I think that the Chinese Communist Party have this incredible ability to throttle up and down free markets and entrepreneurship. And this is a moment where you could kind of see them making the throttle go the way towards enabling more innovation, more free market activity.
Speaker: 3
01:19:13
And it’s gonna be one of the motivators for them to do a deal. So when you put all of this together, I do think that there’s a lot of Chinese tech companies that have been beat up under the assumption that this is gonna be a a very difficult conflict with the US in the years ahead.
Speaker: 3
01:19:26
And I think that that may not be the case going into ai, and I think that there these stocks arya pretty cheap. I was just looking at Alibaba, and it trades at a a pretty decent multiple. It seems like these stocks could be poised for a pretty good run-in ai if the macro works out.
Speaker: 0
01:19:41
This feels like a contrarian take. I mean, Trump, I don’t think is gonna find a a way to balance the relationship with China very well. And I don’t think you can rattle up entrepreneurship ai you cut everybody’s knees out the last time. Plus, I don’t trust any accounting statement coming out of China because they could fudge whatever they sana.
Speaker: 0
01:20:00
But, wow, what a great, potential, you know, buy low, sell high
Speaker: 3
01:20:05
The good thing is you’ll know if I’m right or you you’ll know if I’m right or wrong in a year. You can Exactly.
Speaker: 0
01:20:09
You’ll know exactly. That’s right. Pull the ETF. Absolutely. I mean, Gavin, what do you think of this hot take here from from mister Freiberg?
Speaker: 1
01:20:16
Really cheap. I’ve had a I would call it a no China guideline ever since the long top financial fraud more than 15 years ago, or it’s just amazing. It was, you know, a lot of great investors owned it, and, you know, they they talked a great game, and they had a Western auditor, but then it turned out that the fraud was happening at the local post office where they’re opening up the documents that the local auditors had signed off on, changing them, and then sending different documents, you know, you know, whatever, FedExing them.
Speaker: 1
01:20:53
Yeah. So I just think it’s it’s a hard place if you’re, I think, if you’re not Chinese to make money. But I tend to agree with a lot of what David said. I think Trump and Xi both want a deal. I think there’s a deal to be done that leaves Putin out in the cold as I referenced. And if that happens, Katie bar the door.
Speaker: 1
01:21:15
I mean, there are really, really high quality companies, you know, that are some of them are mid single digit multiples.
Speaker: 0
01:21:21
And they’re and it’s a big market. So if if you did get it right and
Speaker: 3
01:21:24
you do And by the way, the Chinese the Chinese companies serve a global market. It’s not just the US. They serve, you know, Africa, South America, Ai. I mean, the whole southern hemisphere.
Speaker: 0
01:21:34
Well, yeah. If you look at BYD, that it’s all over Europe. It’s Yeah. Yeah. It’s it’s huge.
Speaker: 3
01:21:40
Look. I ai, I I mean, the the Chinese companies, and they have the best unit economics. They have the best cost of production. I mean, everything is advantaged. Particularly, if you believe it’s the year of the robot, there’s gonna be a kind of a massive demand around the world for automation and for rebuilding manufacturing capacity all over the world.
Speaker: 3
01:22:01
And I think that China could service those markets more efficiently than any other kind of country of origin. So it it’s a pretty pretty powerful set of macro drivers as well.
Speaker: 0
01:22:10
I think the sai 7 is gonna be the best performing asset. I’m taking the other ai, Chamath, I think in an earlier prediction sai maybe not so much. I think that what they’ve learned in the last couple years is that there is an incredible earnings expansion you can do by not hiring people and outsourcing jobs to other parts of the world and automating.
Speaker: 0
01:22:30
And the gains we’ll see from AI, which they’re producing for other companies and for consumers, they’re applying first internally. So the internal application of AI will allow these companies to have earnings growth that people will not be able to comprehend over the next couple of years.
Speaker: 0
01:22:48
So I’m going with Meh 7. We got a lot of different takes here going different directions. What a great episode so far. Alright. Worst performing asset.
Speaker: 0
01:22:58
Last year, Chamath said, late stage tech stock index, multi Sai, FreeBird, you put into Brilliant, Spreadtraderd, short vertical SaaS, long AI cloud providers. SaaS has come had a little bit of a rebound, but Google up 36% for AI cloud. Microsoft, 14%, Amazon, 46%, all in 2024.
Speaker: 0
01:23:16
I said Ram startups ai OpenAI, Anthropic, too many players. Open sourcing will kill pricing. Obviously, the one valuation we can track is OpenAI and it doubled. But I do think I’ll long term have that one work. Worst performing asset of 2025, Gavin.
Speaker: 1
01:23:35
Enterprise application software. Okay. This is basically just about Ai a 2025 is gonna be, I think, the year of agents, particularly in the second half. Agents just being AI models that can take action on your behalf. They can do anything online that a human can do online. And if the labs and the big cloud providers dominate agents, which seems likely going back to, you know, the the low cost producer is gonna win, enterprise application software, I think, is gonna be in a lot of pain.
Speaker: 1
01:24:08
And, you know, some of these companies are talking a big big game about agents. But at the end of the day, they don’t have their own models. They don’t own their own compute, and I just don’t see them being ultimate winners in the world of agents. You know, I could easily I could be wrong because they do, you know, they they they have some customer data, maybe a little bit of a data moat, and they do, you know, have strong customer relationships.
Speaker: 1
01:24:35
But, you know, most companies have with AWS, Google, or Microsoft as well. So I think enterprise application software will be in pain.
Speaker: 0
01:24:43
Okay. And Chamath, what do you got?
Speaker: 2
01:24:47
I think Gavin just absolutely nailed it. I’m gonna double down on what he said. I think that there’s a term that we will start to use more. I started to use it internally at ai over this last year in 2024, which is the software industrial complex. These are these large bloated, in many cases, enterprise software companies that effectively have convinced incredible numbers of organizations to spend a tremendous amount of money essentially wrapping a bunch of heuristics and business rules around a CRUD database.
Speaker: 2
01:25:26
And along with that, what they have perfected really is a go to market and sales motion. The golf trips, the steak dinners, you know, we mentioned this before what Alex Karp railed against. None of those things equate to product value. And increasingly in the world of agentic software and AI, I think that you can rebuild a lot of these workflows in very efficient ways.
Speaker: 0
01:25:54
Mhmm.
Speaker: 2
01:25:54
And I think the go to market is going to be driven by CEOs and CFOs who start to exert a little bit more pressure on their CIOs to manage spend. And in that world, I just think that these next generation AI businesses are built frankly, an order of magnitude cheaper than the companies that they compete against.
Speaker: 2
01:26:16
And so even if it’s just feature for feature the same, I think the software industrial complex, these old mainline traditional enterprise software companies, I think you’re gonna start to see fissures in those businesses in 2025. So I I agree with Gavin, different words, but same result.
Speaker: 0
01:26:34
And you put your time and money where your mouth is on this one. 11 months ago, you found it ai to get 80%
Speaker: 2
01:26:41
head The the traction in in less than a year to me is shocking. And I don’t think it speaks necessarily I mean, I think we’re decent. We’re very good. We have great engineers. But my 30% engineering team, I ai, does the work of 300 people. By next year, it’ll be doing the work of 3,000 people.
Speaker: 2
01:26:59
Maybe it will only grow by 10 or 20%. So and the reason is we use these tools. We’re productive to an order of magnitude that I didn’t think was possible. Mhmm. And as a result, we’re just able to price it differently.
Speaker: 2
01:27:12
So even if it’s the exact same product, its cost structure is just meaningfully lower. And so this is what I mean where the ROI calculators get blown up. All of the traditional go to market motions get blown up because in an RFP or in any other sales environment, what you do is somebody says it’s a $100 and you show up and you say 10.
Speaker: 0
01:27:34
Okay.
Speaker: 2
01:27:34
And at 10, it’s still hugely profitable for you.
Speaker: 1
01:27:37
And and just to add just one last thing is just, you know, fundamentally, these enterprise application software companies, the software industrial complex, and I agree with everything Chamath sai. You know, they’re they’re fundamentally based on making white collar human employees more efficient. And what the AI companies are gonna do is just say, hey.
Speaker: 1
01:27:55
We’re just gonna replace that worker. And it’s just a fundamentally different mentality.
Speaker: 0
01:28:01
And this goes ai. Yeah.
Speaker: 1
01:28:02
And it goes to, like, there may may be a lot of pain that accompanies this and, you know, David’s points around the, you know, potential rise of of socialism.
Speaker: 0
01:28:11
What do you got for worst performing asset, mister Friberg? 2020.
Speaker: 3
01:28:15
Ai probably just gonna triple underline vertical SaaS again, per seat pricing model being challenged, pricing being compressed as companies to explore in house tools built with AI that replaces these kind of traditional business practices. Yeah. Emotes are gonna be destroyed.
Speaker: 1
01:28:31
UHGs. This is we’re this
Speaker: 0
01:28:32
is where we’re at right now. Obvious it was an yeah. It was an obvious one on my list, but I wanna make a different one. I wanna make a different one.
Speaker: 2
01:28:39
Oh, how about the OpenAI? Do you have anything OpenAI ai.
Speaker: 4
01:28:41
No.
Speaker: 2
01:28:41
No. No. No. No. No.
Speaker: 4
01:28:42
No. No.
Speaker: 3
01:28:42
No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No.
Speaker: 0
01:28:44
No. No. No. No.
Speaker: 4
01:28:45
No. No. No. No. No. Ai. No. No. No. No.
Speaker: 0
01:28:46
No. No. No. No. No where are they all the other OpenAI employees? Are they on vacation? They’re skiing too. Right?
Speaker: 1
01:28:51
They’ve all started competitors.
Speaker: 0
01:28:53
Oh, right. That’s what happened. Correct. Yeah. They all left to compete and have revenge startups. Wow. That’s an interesting trend. Okay. So consumers make 5 big decisions in their life as we all know. College, 5, and kids.
Speaker: 3
01:29:04
12,000,000,000 in revenue. I mean
Speaker: 0
01:29:06
Well, that’s that’s a projection. But also Projections sometimes meet reality.
Speaker: 1
01:29:10
6,000,000,000 in losses too, David, against that 12,000,000,000 in revenue. Yeah.
Speaker: 3
01:29:13
Yeah. 6,000,000,000 this year or 6,000,000,000 next year?
Speaker: 1
01:29:16
I think the 6 is for next year, but I Yeah. I don’t know.
Speaker: 3
01:29:20
I guess it makes sense why they’re trying to charge $200 a month now. Up from 20.
Speaker: 0
01:29:24
They got some headwinds. Okay. Listen. Consumers make 5 big decisions in their life. We know college spouse kids are, the, obvious ones and then cars and homes. And the consumer is up against it with record debt. So since you can’t trade college spouse kids really, I think legacy car companies and real estate are going to face continued headwinds and be terrible assets because, listen, we’ve overbuilt in some cases.
Speaker: 0
01:29:50
There’s tons of cars on lots, and people can’t afford homes with these mortgages. So I think these are gonna be the 2 worst performing asset or people in the legacy OEMs as Chamath pointed out in a previous prediction. And then I just think real estate is the same. If you look at a place like Texas, 2 years in a row, housing values have gone down.
Speaker: 0
01:30:07
Rent has gone down 2 years in a row. Same thing’s happening in other states where they allowed you to build and people are leaving states where they don’t allow you to build. So that’s my worst performing asset trade. Enterprise was my other choice, but I’ll go with something slightly different. Most anticipated trend for 2025. Last year, Chamath, congratulations.
Speaker: 0
01:30:23
You said last year that Bitcoin would hit a 100 k for the first time. Nailed it. Half court shot. Well done. I think at the time you made that prediction, it was probably trading at Well, it
Speaker: 2
01:30:33
felt like a layup.
Speaker: 0
01:30:34
Felt like a layup to you. Up a 112%. Friberg, you said predictive models and AI driven discovery in pharma and bioengineering. How did that do? That prediction?
Speaker: 3
01:30:43
Well, there was a lot of funding and Demis won the Nobel Prize.
Speaker: 2
01:30:46
And Nobel Prize. Meh.
Speaker: 3
01:30:47
He got it. Sai it worked out.
Speaker: 0
01:30:49
I picked efficiency in the form of AI advancements in labor and outsourcing, and I’ve seen that a bunch with our investment in Athena. Go to athenawow.com. Okay. Got my plug in there. Let’s go for most anticipated 2025 trend. What do you got, Chamath?
Speaker: 2
01:31:03
I think that there are a handful of, not to overuse and overuse term, but canaries in the coal mine for the end of the deep state. And I would like to point to 1, which is this obscure thing called the supplemental loss ratio. And, essentially, what it is is a mechanism that the banks can use to include or not include treasuries and how they calculate reserves, etcetera, etcetera.
Speaker: 2
01:31:37
Now why is this an interesting thing? It’s not interesting for many people. It’s very arcane. But if we are unable to manage the debt situation in 2025, I think what you’re going to see is maneuvering at the edges of these arcane regulations that effectively kick the can down the road.
Speaker: 2
01:32:03
And there is a chance that that could happen to help the banks because, you know, we believe that we meaning collectively Meh, that maybe Doge won’t be as effective as it needs to be, that there’s still going to need to be, you know, 10, $20,000,000,000,000 of debt issuance to refinance the 10 that’s maturing this year and to plug holes in the coming years.
Speaker: 2
01:32:25
My point in all of this is we don’t need to understand the details except that if we don’t move the goalposts here, it is a great sign that the folks that are running the show are the ones that we all elected.
Speaker: 0
01:32:45
Okay.
Speaker: 2
01:32:45
So that is my most anticipated trend. Small, arcane, regulatory changes that allow us to kick the can down the road, stop in its tracks. This is an example.
Speaker: 0
01:32:56
Okay, Freyberg. You got a most anticipated trend for 2025?
Speaker: 3
01:32:58
My most anticipated trend is around the announcement of build out of nuclear power in the United States in 2025 as a function of deregulation and some new technologies. I do think that this new government is gonna be, much more accommodating. And it’s gonna as I’ve said in the past, I think it’s a necessity just because of the the the rate at which we have to do power build outs to meet kind of competitive demand against China.
Speaker: 3
01:33:28
The United States is going to need to add more power electricity production capacity than we can scale up with any other renewable source. So I do believe that nuclear is an inevitability. I think that the deregulation will happen in ai. And I do know a lot of very smart people who are actually starting nuclear power companies and have left very good jobs to go and do this in anticipation of this happening in ai.
Speaker: 3
01:33:52
So I’m very bullish.
Speaker: 0
01:33:54
That’s a leading indicator for sure. When smart people do something with their time, that’s a great indicator. Gavin, what do you got?
Speaker: 1
01:34:01
I think AI Nick, I sent you a chart. I don’t know if you could flash it up, but, I think AI is going to make more progress per quarter
Speaker: 3
01:34:11
In say
Speaker: 1
01:34:12
2025 than it did per year in 23 and 24. And the reason is just with, with o one and o three. This is ArcGIS ai. You know, we keep we keep changing the goal posts for the Turing test and AGI, and I’m sure we’re gonna change it again as we’re gonna blow through this. And I just think what has happened is we were scaling around around 1 on one axis, which was pretraining, and then we started scaling around inference time compute.
Speaker: 1
01:34:43
And it’s very clear that we have now added a third axis of scaling performance, and that is reasoning. And what this is is these models the Internet is composed of answers, people giving answers. And what the models really benefit from is kind of the internal monologue of somebody getting to that answer.
Speaker: 1
01:35:06
And this is, you know, in in AI terms, they call it a reasoning trace. And it’s one reason, you know, 18 months ago, everybody was like, oh, wow. The more code you train a model on, the better it does in all sorts of things that have seemingly nothing to do with code. But all code, you see kind of the reasoning, the internal monologue, the thought process, the step by step.
Speaker: 1
01:35:27
And so what’s happening is you’re using models to generate synthetic data that contains these reasoning traces. So you ask a model, you know, solve this problem. It has to be a a problem that is functionally verifiable that has an answer or we know the answer, and we say, show your work.
Speaker: 1
01:35:43
And we have it do that many, many different ways and ai. And then you pick the best ones, and you ai feed those back into the model. You apply some reinforcement learning to it. And so now you’re scaling along 3 axes that are multiplicative with each other. And I just I you know, a a guy on the Google team said tweeted maybe 5 days ago, it’s gonna be a straight shot to ASI, artificial superintelligence.
Speaker: 1
01:36:11
And I think that might be right. Ilya gave a talk at NeurIPS, Ilya Suitsgever, one of ai of the original pioneers of this field. And he said something that I thought was scary, and he said these models that reason are inherently unpredictable. So the best reasoning models in the world today are the ones that play games, the kind of alpha go alpha zero style models, and they are constantly making unpredictable moves that no human grand master ever could have come up with.
Speaker: 1
01:36:40
And now these models are gonna be making similarly unpredictable leaps in all sorts of domains, which, you know, hopefully, will be awesome, but, you know, ai not
Speaker: 0
01:36:52
be. Meh. Well, they’re gonna go around corners that people might not have considered that are nonintuitive. And then just to circle back and do a little callback here, remember Ai asked which banks would have the biggest chance of being insolvent, or having financial collapse or ai.
Speaker: 0
01:37:07
Tons of misspellings in there as I typed it while we were talking. And you can see what deep ai, deep research did here. It went and said, here’s what we’re gonna do. We’re gonna research a bunch of websites and find a list of banks in the US, find top banks by US by ai. For For each one of these banks, find their latest financial savings. For each of these banks, find their capital adequacy ratios.
Speaker: 0
01:37:25
For each of these banks, find their loan loss. You you get the idea. And then it went and it analyzed, and then it created reports. This took about 10 minutes. And when you look, it created this final report here where it gave a list, Chamath, of JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, yada yada.
Speaker: 0
01:37:41
It did a an analysis of each one. And at the end, you can see all the different websites it pulled. It was well over a 100 websites that it pulled. That’s incredible. Live data ram. A 162 ai.
Speaker: 0
01:37:55
And, you have to pay for this, but it’s only $20 a month in its conclusion. This analysis has provided a snapshot of the financial health of some of the largest US banks ai all banks face inherent risks. Citigroup and Wells Fargo appear to be the highest risk of insolvency of financial collapse compared to JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs.
Speaker: 0
01:38:12
Citigroup’s recent net loss, lower CET1 ratio, and high exposure. I mean, you start looking at this. Now I don’t know how much of this is correct. I’m no expert on this, but it does seem like it’s a pretty good start of where it’s getting to. And if you haven’t used 1.5 Pro with deep research, just go to gemini.google.com. I’m not being paid to say this.
Speaker: 0
01:38:30
I just think it’s the best product in the arya, and it’s pretty darn impressive. Okay. My most anticipated trend for 2025 was alluded to in an earlier prediction, I think by Gavin himself. Mine is that, exits in DPI, Showertown, and we’ll have this incredible, distribution as the wrath of Linacon ends and Meh and A and IPOs will surge.
Speaker: 0
01:38:54
That is my prediction, my most anticipated trend. Okay. Let’s go to most anticipated media. I had 2 that I was working back and forth ram. James Gunn’s DC Universe with Superman coming out this year, I think is gonna be amazing. Andor season 2 could be amazing.
Speaker: 0
01:39:12
I predict they’re gonna do a Clone Wars live action series. If you don’t know the Clone Wars, watch it with your kids. It’s amazing animated series that takes place during the prequels. But I went with a a little of a weird choice here. I think my most anticipated media is seeing what happens with legacy media outlets owned by billionaires and or people who no longer want to pick a ai.
Speaker: 0
01:39:34
Washington Post, CNN, and LA Times specifically are steering towards the middle and trying to get back to classic journalism. The editors are revolting. Karen Swisher is upset, and, they’re adding some right wing voices. It is going to be popcorn time for everybody. So enjoy whatever you sana to enjoy.
Speaker: 0
01:39:54
Star Ai, I got a little Star Wars for you with Andor season 2. I got a little Superman, or you can watch the chaos in the editorial newsrooms at Washington Post and LA Times. What do you got for most anticipated media, Chamath?
Speaker: 2
01:40:06
It is the enormity of the files that are going to get declassified and released by the Trump administration. Ai think it’s going to be unbelievably interesting, salacious, useful, good, earnest, all of the above. So the JFK files, the Epstein files
Speaker: 0
01:40:31
Epstein Ai.
Speaker: 2
01:40:32
Diddy files.
Speaker: 0
01:40:33
The moon landing.
Speaker: 2
01:40:35
Who knows what they find across all of these other fringe quote unquote conspiracy theories that may turn out to actually have some shred of truth. But all of that, let’s call it content for lack of a better word, that gets released in 2025 by the Trump administration, I think will be incredibly interesting.
Speaker: 0
01:40:50
What do you got today? Media. Any anticipated media for you? What do you got?
Speaker: 3
01:40:54
I’m into AI video games. The cost of production comes way down when you use AI and you can have dynamic story lines. You can have new gameplay concepts, things that don’t exist today. Ai think that the creative talent plus the technical talent that you typically find at development houses can be kind of unleashed with tools that have come to come to market recently.
Speaker: 3
01:41:13
We’ve seen a lot of the generative video stuff. But there’s also ways structurally that video games can kind of be rebuilt where the video game engine can run kind of locally. It can be generating parameters that can then use an existing rendering engine. So you can have entirely new story lines and entirely new kind of plot sequences.
Speaker: 3
01:41:29
So I do think that there’s gonna be a rewrite of, video games in the video game industry with the variety of AI kinda capabilities that are hitting market now, and, it’s gonna be incredible. It’s gonna be incredible entertainment. People are gonna people that don’t play video games are gonna find stuff that they’re gonna love.
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01:41:46
Gavin, most into Speak Media, 2025.
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01:41:49
Unquestioned ai saloni 2. I’m normally a science fiction ai fantasy or, you know, spy kinda guy when it comes to TV. But 1883 ai were the first TV shows that kind of hit me the way Game of Thrones did, and I’m crazy excited for that to come out.
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01:42:09
Fantastic. Are you watching Landman? I’m enjoying Landman with the following
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01:42:13
yet. I’m excited to try ai.
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01:42:14
It’s it’s quite fun. Quite fun. Turns out this
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01:42:16
guy, Taylor Sheridan, he’s I mean, he it’s incredible. He’s at the zone.
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01:42:22
I highly recommend Day of the Jackal. I know Chamath also loved Day of the Jackal.
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01:42:26
Oh, that was really good. That was really good.
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01:42:28
That was
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01:42:28
a good that was a good JCast suggestion for streaming.
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01:42:31
Yeah. I’m excited it was Day of the Jackal, Sicario. Yeah. Absolutely.
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01:42:35
What was their predictions for for this last year?
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01:42:38
Last year, Chamath predicted mister beast, Freeburg, AI generated news. I predicted Gladiator 2 and the 3 body problem. Gladiator 2 was mid, but okay. 3 body problem, I didn’t finish. So Ai guess mid.
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01:42:52
Jimmy’s show on Amazon Prime, the mister beast thing was the top unscripted drama in a 140 of a 180 countries.
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01:43:02
Wow. Incredible. Ai. We’re sana do our prediction markets here. I’m gonna put up a prediction market which is based upon immigration and the promise that Trump made to have 15,000,000 people be deported from the country. I think in the 1st year, I’m sana set the over under at 5% of that stated number, which is 750,000.
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01:43:22
So after 1 year in office, will Trump have deported 750,000 less or more? That’s my first prediction. How are you gonna measure that?
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01:43:34
You have to there has to be a, like, a a source of truth on these things. Right?
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01:43:38
We’ll do it based on the White House’s reporting of deportations.
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01:43:41
Yeah. It’s reasonable.
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01:43:43
And we’ll check with the Poly Market team if there’s a way to do that prediction market, obviously. But I think that was the biggest issue of the election, so I’m putting it up there with just 5% in the 1st year.
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01:43:52
You know, it is interesting. Obama deported, I think, more than 2,000,000 people. It’s like people have forgotten, but he was actually really, really tough on the border.
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01:44:00
Yeah. Chamath, do you have a prediction arya you wanna put up?
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01:44:03
The Meh 8 representation on the S and P ai shrinks below 30%.
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01:44:12
Oh, that’s a good one. That’s a good one.
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01:44:14
So dispersion would happen to the other stocks
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01:44:17
That’s a good one.
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01:44:18
Less concentration. That’s a good one. So we’ll finalize these. You’ll be able to go another another market
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01:44:23
I wanted to kinda play with was Microsoft, AWS, and Google Cloud revenue growth. Who’s gonna win in growth in 2025? I don’t know how closely you guys track, but, I get a sense that Google is kind of accelerating ahead. Gavin, I don’t know how much you’ve
Speaker: 1
01:44:38
said on these 3. I mean, Google is I I would say they’re a lot smaller, which makes it easier for them to grow faster. Yeah. Google Can we talk about
Speaker: 3
01:44:52
yeah. I mean, I I guess, who has the largest gain dollar dollar gain in revenue in cloud revenue in 2025? Is it Google, Amazon, or Microsoft?
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01:45:04
Well, it probably won’t be Google because if they had the largest dollar gain, it would mean they’re growing vatsal at insane rates. But I think Azure versus AWS will be interesting.
Speaker: 0
01:45:15
Oh, I know the other one I want you to do, which was the national debt. The national debt has grown about 2,000,000,000,000 per year in each of the previous two presidential administrations, right? So over the last 8 years we’ve gone up over 16,000,000,000,000, 2,000,000,000,000 per year average.
Speaker: 0
01:45:33
So I’m sana to set it at and Trump said he would not increase the national debt. I’ll just set it at the national debt increases 1,000,000,000,000 in the next year over under. Is that a good prediction market?
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01:45:47
Or is
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01:45:47
it should it be 2,000,000,000,000? Ai would you do?
Speaker: 3
01:45:49
I yeah. So what I would do is I would set the federal debt for December the US Treasury arya report on federal debt in 2025. Ai I would set it at 30:37,000,000,000,000. And so you basically the US Treasury, arya report, 20 December 2025 above or below 37,000,000,000,000. It’s gonna be above.
Speaker: 3
01:46:10
I mean, let’s just call it 38,000,000,000,000 then.
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01:46:12
Yeah. You sana basically in order to make this when you set a line, Dave, it’s gotta be one where people take either side of it. It can’t be everybody takes a little bit.
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01:46:21
We’ll the US Treasury arya report December 2025, federal debt above 38,000,000,000,000 or below 38,000,000,000,000.
Speaker: 0
01:46:28
Perfect. Which would be how much added in the year?
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01:46:31
About 1a half. Yeah.
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01:46:33
Yeah. Ai love that. I love that. That’s a perfect one. We’ll sai if he can make any he he can control the spending or if it’ll just be the same.
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01:46:39
Gavin, what’s your sense on federal debt next year?
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01:46:41
I think like most things, it’ll take, like, immigration will take ai to get going. Yeah. It just it’s gonna take a little bit of time, but I think they will make progress. By the way, at some point, if I’m here on the all in again, I wanna talk about UFOs and the drones.
Speaker: 0
01:46:58
Let’s talk about it now. Do it right now. Are you going full conspiracy theorist? Are you are you trying to get your seat here by being a little more Alex Jones?
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01:47:05
Do you
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01:47:06
believe those drones were aliens? What’s going on?
Speaker: 1
01:47:09
So I don’t know, and I think it’s very clear. If you look at all the, you know, statements from the New Jersey mayors and governors, you know, who’ve met with the police, the FBI, the defense department, that they don’t know. Now, you know, Trump said someone in the government knows what they are. He also said he was not gonna go to Bedminster anytime soon, his resort there.
Speaker: 1
01:47:31
I just think over the last, I’d say, 8 years, every 18 months, there’s a big story in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the New Yorker, the Atlantic, very credible media sources with dozens of interviews with fighter pilots and commercial pilots talking about seeing things with advanced sensors that made no sense to them.
Speaker: 1
01:47:53
And then there’s kind of a taboo that went away. Ai was an article in the New Yorker where they quoted from a bunch of people who were at, you know, kind of the the Skunk Works Laboratories in the 19 fifties and said they absolutely saw extraterrestrial materials that have been recovered from a crash.
Speaker: 1
01:48:15
That’s one reason the US made such big leaps in material science. And, you know, there was the O’Odhamana thing where essentially a lot of, you know, astronomers said, hey. This is this is clearly a UFO of some sort, including the head of astronomy at Harvard. And then just the conspiracy theory I would have is if if if if if these are actually UFOs and not, you know, government drones either from Ai States or China.
Speaker: 1
01:48:49
You know, it seems like the most likely explanation in New Jersey is vatsal some sort of a drill. And, obviously, once this hysteria gets going, people, you know, misidentify commercial airplanes as drones. And, like, why would UFOs have blinking green and red lights? But it’s just interesting that there was, you know, a big concentration of these reports as we’re scaling into nuclear technology, 1945 to 1960.
Speaker: 1
01:49:19
And then now that AI is getting going, which is the next kind of technological phase shift for humanity, there’s another big
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01:49:28
endless of reports. Great.
Speaker: 0
01:49:30
You could come back. Come back next week. You you won. Congratulations. We have our winner for all, and I don’t think Gavin is now the 4th best. I love this kind of conspiracy, but, I mean, come on. I we how do we make a
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01:49:43
poll arya out of this free box?
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01:49:44
Ai don’t know that we made a poll market show.
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01:49:46
I’m not sure. Gavin, is there arya there documents that you think Trump will release about the past in in terms of UFOs? There must be just an entire spectrum of stuff that that could be subject to FOIA if we went after it. No?
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01:50:00
Yeah. I mean, I think it depends how deeply it’s ai, and, you know, I’m sure if the government doesn’t wanna give it up, they won’t give it up. But, you know, there’s all the, you know, there’s all these But you
Speaker: 2
01:50:11
think but look. Let’s be honest. You think that there are docs? Like, there there’s documentation that the US government has that there are UFOs that there have been. We just can’t explain it.
Speaker: 1
01:50:23
Yeah. And, you know, they they call it UAPs now to make it, you know, not flying saucers. But it just feels like something fun.
Speaker: 0
01:50:30
What percentage chance do you put on we have actual knowledge? On a percentage basis, what percentage chance do you put on the government, US government, is sitting on knowledge of extraterrestrial? ai.
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01:50:41
At least
Speaker: 0
01:50:42
1 percentage. Shah do you say, Gavin?
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01:50:44
I would say 25. I would take the over of the 20.
Speaker: 0
01:50:47
Okay. Great. So you think there’s a sai a non a a significant small chance that this is the case. Freeburg, sultan of science, what chance do you think there is this government sitting on some extraterrestrial life or proof of it?
Speaker: 3
01:51:01
It’s a longer conversation. I don’t have time for this, but I I gotta be honest. I don’t, I I don’t generally align with the idea that, like, our very narrow range of, like, understanding of technology and biology kind of is what visits us or would visit us. I think that there’s an extension of information gathering that doesn’t require moving physical ai life forms from one part of the galaxy to another.
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01:51:30
So I think that the whole premise of, like, UFOs moving bodies around is rooted in the current state of technology of humanity, which is the basis of Arthur Clarke’s treatment of 2,001 A Space Odyssey, not which was done before the screenplay, which was done before the book.
Speaker: 3
01:51:48
And the treatment which you can buy, I think ai this the best, which is eventually every civilization reaches a sufficiently advanced level of technology that you no longer need to physically move the bodies of the the biological organisms around, that you simply are gathering information and affecting information.
Speaker: 3
01:52:06
Because once you have the ability to convert any molecule into any other molecule and you have access to sufficient energy, which you will eventually evolve to be able to do, you can basically turn your local part of the universe into anything you want it to turn into. And then you’re simply gathering information from all over the rest of the universe.
Speaker: 3
01:52:21
So I would argue that there doesn’t really make a lot of basic sense in why alien bodies would wanna move around the galaxy.
Speaker: 0
01:52:29
I’m just saying it right now. If Trump releases information on extraterrestrial life, Ram voting for him to have a 3rd term. I’m putting it out there. I’m going full MAGA. He gets a 3rd term for me. We’re changing the constitution. This has been another amazing episode of the All in Podcast.
Speaker: 2
01:52:44
One last question for Gavin. One last one.
Speaker: 0
01:52:46
Oh, one last for Gavin. Okay.
Speaker: 2
01:52:47
Do you think extraterrestrial life built the pyramids? Is that the most plausible explanation to the accuracy?
Speaker: 1
01:52:57
I don’t know. It is it is so strange the way there are, you know, in so many, I would say, cultures all over the world pre you know, we we are closer in time to Cleopatra than she was to the time of the great pyramids. Like, it was a long time ago. But it’s just weird that in so many cultures all over the world, there are these depictions of what looked like astronauts.
Speaker: 1
01:53:22
And then there’s all these renaissance era paintings that clearly show what we would call UFOs in the skies over cities. So I don’t know. I just think it’s I’m
Speaker: 0
01:53:36
with you. Ai love conspiracy, Gavin. This has been such This is just conspiracy Gavin’s ass. Insanity. Look, like, if you’re
Speaker: 2
01:53:44
if you’re, Jason, if you’re a questioning person, these things create these weird, sana know, open loops that it’s like carpet clearing
Speaker: 0
01:53:51
in your mind. Sai I’m fully I’m fully vested in this.
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01:53:54
Anyways, Freyberg’s sana drive back.
Speaker: 0
01:53:55
Freyberg’s driving home. I think the pyramids the best most credible thing I saw on the pyramids was that they used water and they raised water in channels. So they put them on wood slats or something, and then they would raise, like, in, like, the Panama Canal. They would do canals and float them up and then place them and then release the water, which, you know, sounds great to me.
Speaker: 0
01:54:16
This has been another amazing episode of the All In podcast, and, thank you to everybody Let’s
Speaker: 2
01:54:22
have an amazing 2025 to everybody sai CES. Yeah. Let’s all kick ass.
Speaker: 1
01:54:27
Let’s kick ass. 2,025. Let’s get it. Take
Speaker: 3
01:54:29
care. Alright.
Speaker: 2
01:54:30
Love you, Sebastian.
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01:54:31
You all next time. Bye bye.
Speaker: 4
01:54:32
Bye bye.
Speaker: 0
01:54:35
We’ll let your winners ride. Rain meh David Ai. I’m going on.
Speaker: 5
01:54:42
And it said, we open sourced it to the fans, and they’ve just gone crazy with it. Love you, West. Nice. Sweet of quinoa.
Speaker: 0
01:54:55
Besties are gone. No
Speaker: 5
01:55:05
We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy because they’re all just useless. It’s like this, like, sexual tension that we just need to release somehow ai.
